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Nowhere could the application of machine learning prove more important -- nor more risky -- than in law enforcement and national security. In this article, I'll review this area and then cover six perplexing and pressing ethical quandaries that arise. Predictive policing introduces a scientific element to law enforcement decisions, such as whether to investigate or detain, how long to sentence, and whether to parole. In making such decisions, judges and officers take into consideration the probability a suspect or defendant will be convicted for a crime in the future -- which is commonly the dependent variable for a predictive policing model. These independent variables may include prior convictions, income level, employment status, family background, neighborhood, education level, and the behavior of family and friends.

I develop Macroeconomic Random Forest (MRF), an algorithm adapting the canonical Machine Learning (ML) tool to flexibly model evolving parameters in a linear macro equation. Its main output, Generalized Time-Varying Parameters (GTVPs), is a versatile device nesting many popular nonlinearities (threshold/switching, smooth transition, structural breaks/change) and allowing for sophisticated new ones. The approach delivers clear forecasting gains over numerous alternatives, predicts the 2008 drastic rise in unemployment, and performs well for inflation. Unlike most ML-based methods, MRF is directly interpretable -- via its GTVPs. For instance, the successful unemployment forecast is due to the influence of forward-looking variables (e.g., term spreads, housing starts) nearly doubling before every recession. Interestingly, the Phillips curve has indeed flattened, and its might is highly cyclical.

With the prevalence of Diabetes, the Diabetes Mellitus Retinopathy (DR) is becoming a major health problem across the world. The long-term medical complications arising due to DR have a significant impact on the patient as well as the society, as the disease mostly affects individuals in their most productive years. Early detection and treatment can help reduce the extent of damage to the patients. The rise of Convolutional Neural Networks for predictive analysis in the medical field paves the way for a robust solution to DR detection. This paper studies the performance of several highly efficient and scalable CNN architectures for Diabetic Retinopathy Classification with the help of Transfer Learning. The research focuses on VGG16, Resnet50 V2 and EfficientNet B0 models. The classification performance is analyzed using several performance metrics including True Positive Rate, False Positive Rate, Accuracy, etc. Also, several performance graphs are plotted for visualizing the architecture performance including Confusion Matrix, ROC Curve, etc. The results indicate that Transfer Learning with ImageNet weights using VGG 16 model demonstrates the best classification performance with the best Accuracy of 95%. It is closely followed by ResNet50 V2 architecture with the best Accuracy of 93%. This paper shows that predictive analysis of DR from retinal images is achieved with Transfer Learning on Convolutional Neural Networks.

The paper proposes a light-weighted stereo frustums matching module for 3D objection detection. The proposed framework takes advantage of a high-performance 2D detector and a point cloud segmentation network to regress 3D bounding boxes for autonomous driving vehicles. Instead of performing traditional stereo matching to compute disparities, the module directly takes the 2D proposals from both the left and the right views as input. Based on the epipolar constraints recovered from the well-calibrated stereo cameras, we propose four matching algorithms to search for the best match for each proposal between the stereo image pairs. Each matching pair proposes a segmentation of the scene which is then fed into a 3D bounding box regression network. Results of extensive experiments on KITTI dataset demonstrate that the proposed Siamese pipeline outperforms the state-of-the-art stereo-based 3D bounding box regression methods.

Algorithmic fairness and privacy are essential elements of trustworthy machine learning for critical decision making processes. Fair machine learning algorithms are developed to minimize discrimination against protected groups in machine learning. This is achieved, for example, by imposing a constraint on the model to equalize its behavior across different groups. This can significantly increase the influence of some training data points on the fair model. We study how this change in influence can change the information leakage of the model about its training data. We analyze the privacy risks of statistical notions of fairness (i.e., equalized odds) through the lens of membership inference attacks: inferring whether a data point was used for training a model. We show that fairness comes at the cost of privacy. However, this privacy cost is not distributed equally: the information leakage of fair models increases significantly on the unprivileged subgroups, which suffer from the discrimination in regular models. Furthermore, the more biased the underlying data is, the higher the privacy cost of achieving fairness for the unprivileged subgroups is. We demonstrate this effect on multiple datasets and explain how fairness-aware learning impacts privacy.

But first, what is a confusion matrix? In machine learning, a confusion matrix is a kind-of confusing table used to understand how well our model predictions perform(especially confusing when we have multiple classes and not the classic binary 0/1 problems). However, gradually I figured out that the confusion-matrix is not so confusing and helps me a ton in understanding the model behaviour and interpreting the results. So I'm going to try to do the same here.. make it less confusing, more interesting and easier to interpret! The columns represent predictions made by our model and the rows represent the actual classes(this is the format of the very popular Python library for ML: sklearn.

The upper panels show the craniocaudal and the mediolateral oblique views. The lower panels show a close-up of the left breast area containing the lesion. The case is one of the false-negative cases included in the dataset. Accordingly, the initial screening assessment was a BI-RADS 2, meaning visible findings were judged as benign. After 1 year, the patient presented for another screening examination.

The problem of learning a directed acyclic graph (DAG) up to Markov equivalence is equivalent to the problem of finding a permutation of the variables that induces the sparsest graph. Without additional assumptions, this task is known to be NP-hard. Building on the minimum degree algorithm for sparse Cholesky decomposition, but utilizing DAG-specific problem structure, we introduce an efficient algorithm for finding such sparse permutations. We show that on jointly Gaussian distributions, our method with depth $w$ runs in $O(p^{w+3})$ time. We compare our method with $w = 1$ to algorithms for finding sparse elimination orderings of undirected graphs, and show that taking advantage of DAG-specific problem structure leads to a significant improvement in the discovered permutation. We also compare our algorithm to provably consistent causal structure learning algorithms, such as the PC algorithm, GES, and GSP, and show that our method achieves comparable performance with a shorter runtime. Thus, our method can be used on its own for causal structure discovery. Finally, we show that there exist dense graphs on which our method achieves almost perfect performance, so that unlike most existing causal structure learning algorithms, the situations in which our algorithm achieves both good performance and good runtime are not limited to sparse graphs.

Despite its impressive theory \& practical performance, Frequent Directions (\acrshort{fd}) has not been widely adopted for large-scale regression tasks. Prior work has shown randomized sketches (i) perform worse in estimating the covariance matrix of the data than \acrshort{fd}; (ii) incur high error when estimating the bias and/or variance on sketched ridge regression. We give the first constant factor relative error bounds on the bias \& variance for sketched ridge regression using \acrshort{fd}. We complement these statistical results by showing that \acrshort{fd} can be used in the optimization setting through an iterative scheme which yields high-accuracy solutions. This improves on randomized approaches which need to compromise the need for a new sketch every iteration with speed of convergence. In both settings, we also show using \emph{Robust Frequent Directions} further enhances performance.