We introduce a novel covariance estimator that exploits the heteroscedastic nature of financial time series by employing exponential weighted moving averages and shrinking the in-sample eigenvalues through cross-validation. Our estimator is model-agnostic in that we make no assumptions on the distribution of the random entries of the matrix or structure of the covariance matrix. Additionally, we show how Random Matrix Theory can provide guidance for automatic tuning of the hyperparameter which characterizes the time scale for the dynamics of the estimator. By attenuating the noise from both the cross-sectional and time-series dimensions, we empirically demonstrate the superiority of our estimator over competing estimators that are based on exponentially-weighted and uniformly-weighted covariance matrices.

Prediction and quantification of future volatility and returns play an important role in financial modelling, both in portfolio optimization and risk management. Natural language processing today allows to process news and social media comments to detect signals of investors' confidence. We have explored the relationship between sentiment extracted from financial news and tweets and FTSE100 movements. We investigated the strength of the correlation between sentiment measures on a given day and market volatility and returns observed the next day. The findings suggest that there is evidence of correlation between sentiment and stock market movements: the sentiment captured from news headlines could be used as a signal to predict market returns; the same does not apply for volatility. Also, in a surprising finding, for the sentiment found in Twitter comments we obtained a correlation coefficient of -0.7, and p-value below 0.05, which indicates a strong negative correlation between positive sentiment captured from the tweets on a given day and the volatility observed the next day. We developed an accurate classifier for the prediction of market volatility in response to the arrival of new information by deploying topic modelling, based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation, to extract feature vectors from a collection of tweets and financial news. The obtained features were used as additional input to the classifier. Thanks to the combination of sentiment and topic modelling our classifier achieved a directional prediction accuracy for volatility of 63%.

Anomalous change detection (ACD) is an important problem in remote sensing image processing. Detecting not only pervasive but also anomalous or extreme changes has many applications for which methodologies are available. This paper introduces a nonlinear extension of a full family of anomalous change detectors. In particular, we focus on algorithms that utilize Gaussian and elliptically contoured (EC) distribution and extend them to their nonlinear counterparts based on the theory of reproducing kernels' Hilbert space. We illustrate the performance of the kernel methods introduced in both pervasive and ACD problems with real and simulated changes in multispectral and hyperspectral imagery with different resolutions (AVIRIS, Sentinel-2, WorldView-2, and Quickbird). A wide range of situations is studied in real examples, including droughts, wildfires, and urbanization. Excellent performance in terms of detection accuracy compared to linear formulations is achieved, resulting in improved detection accuracy and reduced false-alarm rates. Results also reveal that the EC assumption may be still valid in Hilbert spaces. We provide an implementation of the algorithms as well as a database of natural anomalous changes in real scenarios http://isp.uv.es/kacd.html.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are a promising technique for automated glaucoma diagnosis from images of the fundus, and these images are routinely acquired as part of an ophthalmic exam. Nevertheless, CNNs typically require a large amount of well-labeled data for training, which may not be available in many biomedical image classification applications, especially when diseases are rare and where labeling by experts is costly. This paper makes two contributions to address this issue: (1) It introduces a new network architecture and training method for low-shot learning when labeled data are limited and imbalanced, and (2) it introduces a new semi-supervised learning strategy that uses additional unlabeled training data to achieve great accuracy. Our multi-task twin neural network (MTTNN) can use any backbone CNN, and we demonstrate with ResNet-50 and MobileNet-v2 that its accuracy with limited training data approaches the accuracy of a finetuned backbone trained with a dataset that is 50 times larger. We also introduce One-Vote Veto (OVV) self-training, a semi-supervised learning strategy, that is designed specifically for MTTNNs. By taking both self-predictions and contrastive-predictions of the unlabeled training data into account, OVV self-training provides additional pseudo labels for finetuning a pretrained MTTNN. Using a large dataset with more than 50,000 fundus images acquired over 25 years, extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of low-shot learning with MTTNN and semi-supervised learning with OVV. Three additional, smaller clinical datasets of fundus images acquired under different conditions (cameras, instruments, locations, populations), are used to demonstrate generalizability of the methods. Source code and pretrained models will be publicly available upon publication.

Algorithms are now routinely used to make consequential decisions that affect human lives. Examples include college admissions, medical interventions or law enforcement. While algorithms empower us to harness all information hidden in vast amounts of data, they may inadvertently amplify existing biases in the available datasets. This concern has sparked increasing interest in fair machine learning, which aims to quantify and mitigate algorithmic discrimination. Indeed, machine learning models should undergo intensive tests to detect algorithmic biases before being deployed at scale. In this paper, we use ideas from the theory of optimal transport to propose a statistical hypothesis test for detecting unfair classifiers. Leveraging the geometry of the feature space, the test statistic quantifies the distance of the empirical distribution supported on the test samples to the manifold of distributions that render a pre-trained classifier fair. We develop a rigorous hypothesis testing mechanism for assessing the probabilistic fairness of any pre-trained logistic classifier, and we show both theoretically as well as empirically that the proposed test is asymptotically correct. In addition, the proposed framework offers interpretability by identifying the most favorable perturbation of the data so that the given classifier becomes fair.

The internet today has become an unrivalled source of information where people converse on content based websites such as Quora, Reddit, StackOverflow and Twitter asking doubts and sharing knowledge with the world. A major arising problem with such websites is the proliferation of toxic comments or instances of insincerity wherein the users instead of maintaining a sincere motive indulge in spreading toxic and divisive content. The straightforward course of action in confronting this situation is detecting such content beforehand and preventing it from subsisting online. In recent times Transfer Learning in Natural Language Processing has seen an unprecedented growth. Today with the existence of transformers and various state of the art innovations, a tremendous growth has been made in various NLP domains. The introduction of BERT has caused quite a stir in the NLP community. As mentioned, when published, BERT dominated performance benchmarks and thereby inspired many other authors to experiment with it and publish similar models. This led to the development of a whole BERT-family, each member being specialized on a different task. In this paper we solve the Insincere Questions Classification problem by fine tuning four cutting age models viz BERT, RoBERTa, DistilBERT and ALBERT.

Supervised learning models have been increasingly used for making decisions about individuals in applications such as hiring, lending, and college admission. These models may inherit pre-existing biases from training datasets and discriminate against protected attributes (e.g., race or gender). In addition to unfairness, privacy concerns also arise when the use of models reveals sensitive personal information. Among various privacy notions, differential privacy has become popular in recent years. In this work, we study the possibility of using a differentially private exponential mechanism as a post-processing step to improve both fairness and privacy of supervised learning models. Unlike many existing works, we consider a scenario where a supervised model is used to select a limited number of applicants as the number of available positions is limited. This assumption is well-suited for various scenarios, such as job application and college admission. We use ``equal opportunity'' as the fairness notion and show that the exponential mechanisms can make the decision-making process perfectly fair. Moreover, the experiments on real-world datasets show that the exponential mechanism can improve both privacy and fairness, with a slight decrease in accuracy compared to the model without post-processing.

The emerging progress of eSports lacks the tools for ensuring high-quality analytics and training in Pro and amateur eSports teams. We report on an Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabled solution for predicting the eSports player in-game performance using exclusively the data from sensors. For this reason, we collected the physiological, environmental, and the game chair data from Pro and amateur players. The player performance is assessed from the game logs in a multiplayer game for each moment of time using a recurrent neural network. We have investigated that attention mechanism improves the generalization of the network and provides the straightforward feature importance as well. The best model achieves ROC AUC score 0.73. The prediction of the performance of particular player is realized although his data are not utilized in the training set. The proposed solution has a number of promising applications for Pro eSports teams as well as a learning tool for amateur players.

Although deep neural networks have shown promising performances on various tasks, they are susceptible to incorrect predictions induced by imperceptibly small perturbations in inputs. A large number of previous works proposed to detect adversarial attacks. Yet, most of them cannot effectively detect them against adaptive whitebox attacks where an adversary has the knowledge of the model and the defense method. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic adversarial detector motivated by a recently introduced non-robust feature. We consider the non-robust features as a common property of adversarial examples, and we deduce it is possible to find a cluster in representation space corresponding to the property. This idea leads us to probability estimate distribution of adversarial representations in a separate cluster, and leverage the distribution for a likelihood based adversarial detector.

We show that standard machine-learning algorithms may be trained to predict certain invariants of low genus arithmetic curves. Using datasets of size around one hundred thousand, we demonstrate the utility of machine-learning in classification problems pertaining to the BSD invariants of an elliptic curve (including its rank and torsion subgroup), and the analogous invariants of a genus 2 curve. Our results show that a trained machine can efficiently classify curves according to these invariants with high accuracies (>0.97). For problems such as distinguishing between torsion orders, and the recognition of integral points, the accuracies can reach 0.998.