The prevalence of state-sponsored propaganda on the Internet has become a cause for concern in the recent years. While much effort has been made to identify state-sponsored Internet propaganda, the problem remains far from being solved because the ambiguous definition of propaganda leads to unreliable data labelling, and the huge amount of potential predictive features causes the models to be inexplicable. This paper is the first attempt to build a balanced dataset for this task. The dataset is comprised of propaganda by three different organizations across two time periods. A multi-model framework for detecting propaganda messages solely based on the visual and textual content is proposed which achieves a promising performance on detecting propaganda by the three organizations both for the same time period (training and testing on data from the same time period) (F1=0.869) and for different time periods (training on past, testing on future) (F1=0.697). To reduce the influence of false positive predictions, we change the threshold to test the relationship between the false positive and true positive rates and provide explanations for the predictions made by our models with visualization tools to enhance the interpretability of our framework. Our new dataset and general framework provide a strong benchmark for the task of identifying state-sponsored Internet propaganda and point out a potential path for future work on this task.

Partially Observable Monte-Carlo Planning (POMCP) is a powerful online algorithm able to generate approximate policies for large Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes. The online nature of this method supports scalability by avoiding complete policy representation. The lack of an explicit representation however hinders interpretability. In this work, we propose a methodology based on Satisfiability Modulo Theory (SMT) for analyzing POMCP policies by inspecting their traces, namely sequences of belief-action-observation triplets generated by the algorithm. The proposed method explores local properties of policy behavior to identify unexpected decisions. We propose an iterative process of trace analysis consisting of three main steps, i) the definition of a question by means of a parametric logical formula describing (probabilistic) relationships between beliefs and actions, ii) the generation of an answer by computing the parameters of the logical formula that maximize the number of satisfied clauses (solving a MAX-SMT problem), iii) the analysis of the generated logical formula and the related decision boundaries for identifying unexpected decisions made by POMCP with respect to the original question. We evaluate our approach on Tiger, a standard benchmark for POMDPs, and a real-world problem related to mobile robot navigation. Results show that the approach can exploit human knowledge on the domain, outperforming state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods in identifying unexpected decisions. An improvement of the Area Under Curve up to 47\% has been achieved in our tests.

Chromosome karyotype analysis is of great clinical importance in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases, especially for genetic diseases. Since manual analysis is highly time and effort consuming, computer-assisted automatic chromosome karyotype analysis based on images is routinely used to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the analysis. Due to the strip shape of the chromosomes, they easily get overlapped with each other when imaged, significantly affecting the accuracy of the analysis afterward. Conventional overlapping chromosome segmentation methods are usually based on manually tagged features, hence, the performance of which is easily affected by the quality, such as resolution and brightness, of the images. To address the problem, in this paper, we present an adversarial multiscale feature learning framework to improve the accuracy and adaptability of overlapping chromosome segmentation. Specifically, we first adopt the nested U-shape network with dense skip connections as the generator to explore the optimal representation of the chromosome images by exploiting multiscale features. Then we use the conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) to generate images similar to the original ones, the training stability of which is enhanced by applying the least-square GAN objective. Finally, we employ Lovasz-Softmax to help the model converge in a continuous optimization setting. Comparing with the established algorithms, the performance of our framework is proven superior by using public datasets in eight evaluation criteria, showing its great potential in overlapping chromosome segmentation

Disadvantaged groups around the world have suffered and endured higher mortality during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This contrast disparity suggests that socioeconomic and health-related factors may drive inequality in disease outcome. To identify these factors correlated with COVID-19 outcome, country aggregate data provided by the Lancet COVID-19 Commission subjected to correlation analysis. Socioeconomic and health-related variables were used to predict mortality in the top 5 most affected countries using ridge regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models. Our data reveal that predictors related to demographics and social disadvantage correlate with COVID-19 mortality per million and that XGBoost performed better than ridge regression. Taken together, our findings suggest that the health consequence of the current pandemic is not just confined to indiscriminate impact of a viral infection but that these preventable effects are amplified based on pre-existing health and socioeconomic inequalities.

Training datasets for machine learning often have some form of missingness. For example, to learn a model for deciding whom to give a loan, the available training data includes individuals who were given a loan in the past, but not those who were not. This missingness, if ignored, nullifies any fairness guarantee of the training procedure when the model is deployed. Using causal graphs, we characterize the missingness mechanisms in different real-world scenarios. We show conditions under which various distributions, used in popular fairness algorithms, can or can not be recovered from the training data. Our theoretical results imply that many of these algorithms can not guarantee fairness in practice. Modeling missingness also helps to identify correct design principles for fair algorithms. For example, in multi-stage settings where decisions are made in multiple screening rounds, we use our framework to derive the minimal distributions required to design a fair algorithm. Our proposed algorithm decentralizes the decision-making process and still achieves similar performance to the optimal algorithm that requires centralization and non-recoverable distributions.

Popularity of social networks has rapidly increased over the past few years, and daily lives interrupt without their proper functioning. Social networking platform provide multiple interaction types between individuals, such as creating and joining groups, sending and receiving messages, sharing interests and creating friendship relationships. This paper addresses an important problem in social networks analysis and mining that is how to predict link initiation feedback in two-way networks. Relationships between two individuals in a two-way network include a link invitation from one of the individuals, which will be an established link if it is accepted by the invitee. We consider a sport gaming social networking platform and construct a multilayer social network between a number of users. The network formed by the link initiation process is on one of the layers, while the other two layers include a messaging relationships and interactions between the users. We propose a methodology to solve the link initiation feedback prediction problem in this multilayer fashion. The proposed method is based on features extracted from meta-paths, i.e. paths defined between different individuals from multiples layers in multilayer networks. We proposed a cluster-based approach to handle the sparsity issue in the dataset. Experimental results show that the proposed method can provide accurate prediction that outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Current large-scale auto-regressive language models (Radford et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2018; Graves, 2013) display impressive fluency and can generate convincing text. In this work we start by asking the question: Can the generations of these models be reliably distinguished from real text by statistical discriminators? We find experimentally that the answer is affirmative when we have access to the training data for the model, and guardedly affirmative even if we do not. This suggests that the auto-regressive models can be improved by incorporating the (globally normalized) discriminators into the generative process. We give a formalism for this using the Energy-Based Model framework, and show that it indeed improves the results of the generative models, measured both in terms of perplexity and in terms of human evaluation.

We study fairness in Machine Learning (FairML) through the lens of attribute-based explanations generated for machine learning models. Our hypothesis is: Biased Models have Biased Explanations. To establish that, we first translate existing statistical notions of group fairness and define these notions in terms of explanations given by the model. Then, we propose a novel way of detecting (un)fairness for any black box model. We further look at post-processing techniques for fairness and reason how explanations can be used to make a bias mitigation technique more individually fair. We also introduce a novel post-processing mitigation technique which increases individual fairness in recourse while maintaining group level fairness.

Tree based ensembles such as Breiman's random forest (RF) and Gradient Boosted Trees (GBT) can be interpreted as implicit kernel generators, where the ensuing proximity matrix represents the data-driven tree ensemble kernel. Kernel perspective on the RF has been used to develop a principled framework for theoretical investigation of its statistical properties. Recently, it has been shown that the kernel interpretation is germane to other tree-based ensembles e.g. GBTs. However, practical utility of the links between kernels and the tree ensembles has not been widely explored and systematically evaluated. Focus of our work is investigation of the interplay between kernel methods and the tree based ensembles including the RF and GBT. We elucidate the performance and properties of the RF and GBT based kernels in a comprehensive simulation study comprising of continuous and binary targets. We show that for continuous targets, the RF/GBT kernels are competitive to their respective ensembles in higher dimensional scenarios, particularly in cases with larger number of noisy features. For the binary target, the RF/GBT kernels and their respective ensembles exhibit comparable performance. We provide the results from real life data sets for regression and classification to show how these insights may be leveraged in practice. Overall, our results support the tree ensemble based kernels as a valuable addition to the practitioner's toolbox. Finally, we discuss extensions of the tree ensemble based kernels for survival targets, interpretable prototype and landmarking classification and regression. We outline future line of research for kernels furnished by Bayesian counterparts of the frequentist tree ensembles.

Hate speech is a challenging issue plaguing the online social media. While better models for hate speech detection are continuously being developed, there is little research on the bias and interpretability aspects of hate speech. In this paper, we introduce HateXplain, the first benchmark hate speech dataset covering multiple aspects of the issue. Each post in our dataset is annotated from three different perspectives: the basic, commonly used 3-class classification (i.e., hate, offensive or normal), the target community (i.e., the community that has been the victim of hate speech/offensive speech in the post), and the rationales, i.e., the portions of the post on which their labelling decision (as hate, offensive or normal) is based. We utilize existing state-of-the-art models and observe that even models that perform very well in classification do not score high on explainability metrics like model plausibility and faithfulness. We also observe that models, which utilize the human rationales for training, perform better in reducing unintended bias towards target communities. We have made our code and dataset public at https://github.com/punyajoy/HateXplain