The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for robust, scalable monitoring tools supporting stratification of high-risk patients. This research aims to develop and validate prediction models, using the UK Biobank, to estimate COVID-19 mortality risk in confirmed cases. From the 11,245 participants testing positive for COVID-19, we develop a data-driven random forest classification model with excellent performance (AUC: 0.91), using baseline characteristics, pre-existing conditions, symptoms, and vital signs, such that the score could dynamically assess mortality risk with disease deterioration. We also identify several significant novel predictors of COVID-19 mortality with equivalent or greater predictive value than established high-risk comorbidities, such as detailed anthropometrics and prior acute kidney failure, urinary tract infection, and pneumonias. The model design and feature selection enables utility in outpatient settings. Possible applications include supporting individual-level risk profiling and monitoring disease progression across patients with COVID-19 at-scale, especially in hospital-at-home settings.

Large pretrained generative models like GPT-3 often suffer from hallucinating non-existent or incorrect content, which undermines their potential merits in real applications. Existing work usually attempts to detect these hallucinations based on a corresponding oracle reference at a sentence or document level. However ground-truth references may not be readily available for many free-form text generation applications, and sentence- or document-level detection may fail to provide the fine-grained signals that would prevent fallacious content in real time. As a first step to addressing these issues, we propose a novel token-level, reference-free hallucination detection task and an associated annotated dataset named HaDes (HAllucination DEtection dataSet). To create this dataset, we first perturb a large number of text segments extracted from English language Wikipedia, and then verify these with crowd-sourced annotations. To mitigate label imbalance during annotation, we utilize an iterative model-in-loop strategy. We conduct comprehensive data analyses and create multiple baseline models.

Recently, much attention has been paid to the societal impact of AI, especially concerns regarding its fairness. A growing body of research has identified unfair AI systems and proposed methods to debias them, yet many challenges remain. Representation learning for Heterogeneous Information Networks (HINs), a fundamental building block used in complex network mining, has socially consequential applications such as automated career counseling, but there have been few attempts to ensure that it will not encode or amplify harmful biases, e.g. sexism in the job market. To address this gap, in this paper we propose a comprehensive set of de-biasing methods for fair HINs representation learning, including sampling-based, projection-based, and graph neural networks (GNNs)-based techniques. We systematically study the behavior of these algorithms, especially their capability in balancing the trade-off between fairness and prediction accuracy. We evaluate the performance of the proposed methods in an automated career counseling application where we mitigate gender bias in career recommendation. Based on the evaluation results on two datasets, we identify the most effective fair HINs representation learning techniques under different conditions.

Feature selection (FS) is an important research topic in machine learning. Usually, FS is modelled as a+ bi-objective optimization problem whose objectives are: 1) classification accuracy; 2) number of features. One of the main issues in real-world applications is missing data. Databases with missing data are likely to be unreliable. Thus, FS performed on a data set missing some data is also unreliable. In order to directly control this issue plaguing the field, we propose in this study a novel modelling of FS: we include reliability as the third objective of the problem. In order to address the modified problem, we propose the application of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-III (NSGA-III). We selected six incomplete data sets from the University of California Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository. We used the mean imputation method to deal with the missing data. In the experiments, k-nearest neighbors (K-NN) is used as the classifier to evaluate the feature subsets. Experimental results show that the proposed three-objective model coupled with NSGA-III efficiently addresses the FS problem for the six data sets included in this study.

Data imbalance remains one of the factors negatively affecting the performance of contemporary machine learning algorithms. One of the most common approaches to reducing the negative impact of data imbalance is preprocessing the original dataset with data-level strategies. In this paper we propose a unified framework for imbalanced data over- and undersampling. The proposed approach utilizes radial basis functions to preserve the original shape of the underlying class distributions during the resampling process. This is done by optimizing the positions of generated synthetic observations with respect to the potential resemblance loss. The final Potential Anchoring algorithm combines over- and undersampling within the proposed framework. The results of the experiments conducted on 60 imbalanced datasets show outperformance of Potential Anchoring over state-of-the-art resampling algorithms, including previously proposed methods that utilize radial basis functions to model class potential. Furthermore, the results of the analysis based on the proposed data complexity index show that Potential Anchoring is particularly well suited for handling naturally complex (i.e. not affected by the presence of noise) datasets.

We present a new corpus for the Situated and Interactive Multimodal Conversations, SIMMC 2.0, aimed at building a successful multimodal assistant agent. Specifically, the dataset features 11K task-oriented dialogs (117K utterances) between a user and a virtual assistant on the shopping domain (fashion and furniture), grounded in situated and photo-realistic VR scenes. The dialogs are collected using a two-phase pipeline, which first generates simulated dialog flows via a novel multimodal dialog simulator we propose, followed by manual paraphrasing of the generated utterances. In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of the collected dataset, and describe in detail the four main benchmark tasks we propose for SIMMC 2.0. The preliminary analysis with a baseline model highlights the new challenges that the SIMMC 2.0 dataset brings, suggesting new directions for future research. Our dataset and code will be made publicly available.

The modelling of Earth observation data is a challenging problem, typically approached by either purely mechanistic or purely data-driven methods. Mechanistic models encode the domain knowledge and physical rules governing the system. Such models, however, need the correct specification of all interactions between variables in the problem and the appropriate parameterization is a challenge in itself. On the other hand, machine learning approaches are flexible data-driven tools, able to approximate arbitrarily complex functions, but lack interpretability and struggle when data is scarce or in extrapolation regimes. In this paper, we argue that hybrid learning schemes that combine both approaches can address all these issues efficiently. We introduce Gaussian process (GP) convolution models for hybrid modelling in Earth observation (EO) problems. We specifically propose the use of a class of GP convolution models called latent force models (LFMs) for EO time series modelling, analysis and understanding. LFMs are hybrid models that incorporate physical knowledge encoded in differential equations into a multioutput GP model. LFMs can transfer information across time-series, cope with missing observations, infer explicit latent functions forcing the system, and learn parameterizations which are very helpful for system analysis and interpretability. We consider time series of soil moisture from active (ASCAT) and passive (SMOS, AMSR2) microwave satellites. We show how assuming a first order differential equation as governing equation, the model automatically estimates the e-folding time or decay rate related to soil moisture persistence and discovers latent forces related to precipitation. The proposed hybrid methodology reconciles the two main approaches in remote sensing parameter estimation by blending statistical learning and mechanistic modeling.

Going beyond correlations, the understanding and identification of causal relationships in observational time series, an important subfield of Causal Discovery, poses a major challenge. The lack of access to a well-defined ground truth for real-world data creates the need to rely on synthetic data for the evaluation of these methods. Existing benchmarks are limited in their scope, as they either are restricted to a "static" selection of data sets, or do not allow for a granular assessment of the methods' performance when commonly made assumptions are violated. We propose a flexible and simple to use framework for generating time series data, which is aimed at developing, evaluating, and benchmarking time series causal discovery methods. In particular, the framework can be used to fine tune novel methods on vast amounts of data, without "overfitting" them to a benchmark, but rather so they perform well in real-world use cases. Using our framework, we evaluate prominent time series causal discovery methods and demonstrate a notable degradation in performance when their assumptions are invalidated and their sensitivity to choice of hyperparameters. Finally, we propose future research directions and how our framework can support both researchers and practitioners.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a successful methodology to tune the hyperparameters of machine learning algorithms. The user defines a metric of interest, such as the validation error, and BO finds the optimal hyperparameters that minimize it. However, the metric improvements on the validation set may not translate to the test set, especially on small datasets. In other words, BO can overfit. While cross-validation mitigates this, it comes with high computational cost. In this paper, we carry out the first systematic investigation of overfitting in BO and demonstrate that this is a serious yet often overlooked concern in practice. We propose the first problem-adaptive and interpretable criterion to early stop BO, reducing overfitting while mitigating the cost of cross-validation. Experimental results on real-world hyperparameter optimization tasks show that our approach can substantially reduce compute time with little to no loss of test accuracy,demonstrating a clear practical advantage over existing techniques.

Depending on the application, radiological diagnoses can be associated with high inter- and intra-rater variabilities. Most computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) solutions treat such data as incontrovertible, exposing learning algorithms to considerable and possibly contradictory label noise and biases. Thus, managing subjectivity in labels is a fundamental problem in medical imaging analysis. To address this challenge, we introduce auto-decoded deep latent embeddings (ADDLE), which explicitly models the tendencies of each rater using an auto-decoder framework. After a simple linear transformation, the latent variables can be injected into any backbone at any and multiple points, allowing the model to account for rater-specific effects on the diagnosis. Importantly, ADDLE does not expect multiple raters per image in training, meaning it can readily learn from data mined from hospital archives. Moreover, the complexity of training ADDLE does not increase as more raters are added. During inference each rater can be simulated and a 'mean' or 'greedy' virtual rating can be produced. We test ADDLE on the problem of liver steatosis diagnosis from 2D ultrasound (US) by collecting 46 084 studies along with clinical US diagnoses originating from 65 different raters. We evaluated diagnostic performance using a separate dataset with gold-standard biopsy diagnoses. ADDLE can improve the partial areas under the curve (AUCs) for diagnosing severe steatosis by 10.5% over standard classifiers while outperforming other annotator-noise approaches, including those requiring 65 times the parameters.