We consider conducting inference on the output of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) [Breiman et al., 1984] algorithm. A naive approach to inference that does not account for the fact that the tree was estimated from the data will not achieve standard guarantees, such as Type 1 error rate control and nominal coverage. Thus, we propose a selective inference framework for conducting inference on a fitted CART tree. In a nutshell, we condition on the fact that the tree was estimated from the data. We propose a test for the difference in the mean response between a pair of terminal nodes that controls the selective Type 1 error rate, and a confidence interval for the mean response within a single terminal node that attains the nominal selective coverage. Efficient algorithms for computing the necessary conditioning sets are provided. We apply these methods in simulation and to a dataset involving the association between portion control interventions and caloric intake.

Identification methods for dynamic networks typically require prior knowledge of the network and disturbance topology, and often rely on solving poorly scalable non-convex optimization problems. While methods for estimating network topology are available in the literature, less attention has been paid to estimating the disturbance topology, i.e., the (spatial) noise correlation structure and the noise rank. In this work we present an identification method for dynamic networks, in which an estimation of the disturbance topology precedes the identification of the full dynamic network with known network topology. To this end we extend the multi-step Sequential Linear Regression and Weighted Null Space Fitting methods to deal with reduced rank noise, and use these methods to estimate the disturbance topology and the network dynamics. As a result, we provide a multi-step least squares algorithm with parallel computation capabilities and that rely only on explicit analytical solutions, thereby avoiding the usual non-convex optimizations involved. Consequently we consistently estimate dynamic networks of Box Jenkins model structure, while keeping the computational burden low. We provide a consistency proof that includes path-based data informativity conditions for allocation of excitation signals in the experimental design. Numerical simulations performed on a dynamic network with reduced rank noise clearly illustrate the potential of this method.

Classification algorithms face difficulties when one or more classes have limited training data. We are particularly interested in classification trees, due to their interpretability and flexibility. When data are limited in one or more of the classes, the estimated decision boundaries are often irregularly shaped due to the limited sample size, leading to poor generalization error. We propose a novel approach that penalizes the Surface-to-Volume Ratio (SVR) of the decision set, obtaining a new class of SVR-Tree algorithms. We develop a simple and computationally efficient implementation while proving estimation consistency for SVR-Tree and rate of convergence for an idealized empirical risk minimizer of SVR-Tree. SVR-Tree is compared with multiple algorithms that are designed to deal with imbalance through real data applications.

Scoring systems are highly interpretable and widely used to evaluate time-to-event outcomes in healthcare research. However, existing time-to-event scores are predominantly created ad-hoc using a few manually selected variables based on clinician's knowledge, suggesting an unmet need for a robust and efficient generic score-generating method. AutoScore was previously developed as an interpretable machine learning score generator, integrated both machine learning and point-based scores in the strong discriminability and accessibility. We have further extended it to time-to-event data and developed AutoScore-Survival, for automatically generating time-to-event scores with right-censored survival data. Random survival forest provides an efficient solution for selecting variables, and Cox regression was used for score weighting. We illustrated our method in a real-life study of 90-day mortality of patients in intensive care units and compared its performance with survival models (i.e., Cox) and the random survival forest. The AutoScore-Survival-derived scoring model was more parsimonious than survival models built using traditional variable selection methods (e.g., penalized likelihood approach and stepwise variable selection), and its performance was comparable to survival models using the same set of variables. Although AutoScore-Survival achieved a comparable integrated area under the curve of 0.782 (95% CI: 0.767-0.794), the integer-valued time-to-event scores generated are favorable in clinical applications because they are easier to compute and interpret. Our proposed AutoScore-Survival provides an automated, robust and easy-to-use machine learning-based clinical score generator to studies of time-to-event outcomes. It provides a systematic guideline to facilitate the future development of time-to-event scores for clinical applications.

This paper presents our research on leveraging social media Big Data and AI to support hurricane disaster emergency response. The current practice of hurricane emergency response for rescue highly relies on emergency call centres. The more recent Hurricane Harvey event reveals the limitations of the current systems. We use Hurricane Harvey and the associated Houston flooding as the motivating scenario to conduct research and develop a prototype as a proof-of-concept of using an intelligent agent as a complementary role to support emergency centres in hurricane emergency response. This intelligent agent is used to collect real-time streaming tweets during a natural disaster event, to identify tweets requesting rescue, to extract key information such as address and associated geocode, and to visualize the extracted information in an interactive map in decision supports. Our experiment shows promising outcomes and the potential application of the research in support of hurricane emergency response.

It's one of the technique in which we implement KFold cross-validation, where k is equal to n i.e the number of observations in the data. Thus, every single point will be used in a validation set, we will create n models, for n-observations in the data. Each point/sample is used once as a test set while the remaining data/samples form the training set. The scikit-learn Python machine learning library provides an implementation of the LOOCV via the LeaveOneOut class using Leave-One-Out cross-validator.

Recently pre-trained multimodal models, such as CLIP, have received a surge of attention for their exceptional capabilities towards connecting images and natural language. The textual representations in English can be desirably transferred to multilingualism and support promising downstream multimodal tasks for different languages. Nevertheless, previous fairness discourse in vision-and-language learning mainly focuses on monolingual representational biases, and rarely scrutinizes the principles of multilingual fairness in this multimodal setting, where one language is equated to a group of individuals and images provide the universal grounding for bridging different languages. In this paper, we provide a nuanced understanding of individual fairness and group fairness by viewing language as the recipient of fairness notions. We define new fairness notions within multilingual context and analytically articulate that, pre-trained vision-and-language representations are individually fair across languages but not guaranteed to group fairness. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore the prevalent group disparity across languages and protected groups including race, gender and age.

Constructing an ensemble from a heterogeneous set of unsupervised anomaly detection methods is challenging because the class labels or the ground truth is unknown. Thus, traditional ensemble techniques that use the response variable or the class labels cannot be used to construct an ensemble for unsupervised anomaly detection. We use Item Response Theory (IRT) -- a class of models used in educational psychometrics to assess student and test question characteristics -- to construct an unsupervised anomaly detection ensemble. IRT's latent trait computation lends itself to anomaly detection because the latent trait can be used to uncover the hidden ground truth. Using a novel IRT mapping to the anomaly detection problem, we construct an ensemble that can downplay noisy, non-discriminatory methods and accentuate sharper methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the IRT ensemble on an extensive data repository, by comparing its performance to other ensemble techniques.

In recent years, the problem of addressing fairness in Machine Learning (ML) and automatic decision-making has attracted a lot of attention in the scientific communities dealing with Artificial Intelligence. A plethora of different definitions of fairness in ML have been proposed, that consider different notions of what is a "fair decision" in situations impacting individuals in the population. The precise differences, implications and "orthogonality" between these notions have not yet been fully analyzed in the literature. In this work, we try to make some order out of this zoo of definitions.

Despite the enormous success of neural networks, they are still hard to interpret and often overfit when applied to low-sample-size (LSS) datasets. To tackle these obstacles, we propose a framework for training locally sparse neural networks where the local sparsity is learned via a sample-specific gating mechanism that identifies the subset of most relevant features for each measurement. The sample-specific sparsity is predicted via a \textit{gating} network, which is trained in tandem with the \textit{prediction} network. By learning these subsets and weights of a prediction model, we obtain an interpretable neural network that can handle LSS data and can remove nuisance variables, which are irrelevant for the supervised learning task. Using both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art models when predicting the target function with far fewer features per instance.