Performance Analysis
How to predict customer churn in a company ? - Soriba Diaby
Banks, telephone service companies, Internet service providers, pay TV companies, insurance firms, and alarm monitoring services, often use customer attrition analysis and customer attrition rates as one of their key business metrics (along with cash flow, EBITDA, etc.) because the cost of retaining an existing customer is far less than acquiring a new one (Wikipedia). According to this article, the probability of selling to a new customer is 60-70%, while the probability of selling to a new prospect is 5-20%. So knowing if a customer is at risk of leaving is one of the most important tasks a company has to perform in order to keep growing its business. The data can be found here on kaggle public datasets. We will predict if a customer will churn based on his informations. There are 7043 customers and 20 features.
Predicting gender of Brazilian names using deep learning
Rego, Rosana C. B., Silva, Verรดnica M. L.
Predicting gender by the name is not a simple task. In many applications, especially in the natural language processing (NLP) field, this task may be necessary, mainly when considering foreign names. Some machine learning algorithms can satisfactorily perform the prediction. In this paper, we examined and implemented feedforward and recurrent deep neural network models, such as MLP, RNN, GRU, CNN, and BiLSTM, to classify gender through the first name. A dataset of Brazilian names is used to train and evaluate the models. We analyzed the accuracy, recall, precision, and confusion matrix to measure the models' performances. The results indicate that the gender prediction can be performed from the feature extraction strategy looking at the names as a set of strings. Some models accurately predict the gender in more than 90% of the cases. The recurrent models overcome the feedforward models in this binary classification problem.
QuaPy: A Python-Based Framework for Quantification
Moreo, Alejandro, Esuli, Andrea, Sebastiani, Fabrizio
QuaPy is an open-source framework for performing quantification (a.k.a. supervised prevalence estimation), written in Python. Quantification is the task of training quantifiers via supervised learning, where a quantifier is a predictor that estimates the relative frequencies (a.k.a. prevalence values) of the classes of interest in a sample of unlabelled data. While quantification can be trivially performed by applying a standard classifier to each unlabelled data item and counting how many data items have been assigned to each class, it has been shown that this "classify and count" method is outperformed by methods specifically designed for quantification. QuaPy provides implementations of a number of baseline methods and advanced quantification methods, of routines for quantification-oriented model selection, of several broadly accepted evaluation measures, and of robust evaluation protocols routinely used in the field. QuaPy also makes available datasets commonly used for testing quantifiers, and offers visualization tools for facilitating the analysis and interpretation of the results. The software is open-source and publicly available under a BSD-3 licence via https://github.com/HLT-ISTI/QuaPy, and can be installed via pip (https://pypi.org/project/QuaPy/)
Paradigm selection for Data Fusion of SAR and Multispectral Sentinel data applied to Land-Cover Classification
Sebastianelli, Alessandro, Del Rosso, Maria Pia, Mathieu, Pierre Philippe, Ullo, Silvia Liberata
Data fusion is a well-known technique, becoming more and more popular in the Artificial Intelligence for Earth Observation (AI4EO) domain mainly due to its ability of reinforcing AI4EO applications by combining multiple data sources and thus bringing better results. On the other hand, like other methods for satellite data analysis, data fusion itself is also benefiting and evolving thanks to the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI). In this letter, four data fusion paradigms, based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), are analyzed and implemented. The goals are to provide a systematic procedure for choosing the best data fusion framework, resulting in the best classification results, once the basic structure for the CNN has been defined, and to help interested researchers in their work when data fusion applied to remote sensing is involved. The procedure has been validated for land-cover classification but it can be transferred to other cases.
Performance Evaluation of Classification Models for Household Income, Consumption and Expenditure Data Set
Nigus, Mersha, Dorsewamy, null
Food security is more prominent on the policy agenda today than it has been in the past, thanks to recent food shortages at both the regional and global levels as well as renewed promises from major donor countries to combat chronic hunger. One field where machine learning can be used is in the classification of household food insecurity. In this study, we establish a robust methodology to categorize whether or not a household is being food secure and food insecure by machine learning algorithms. In this study, we have used ten machine learning algorithms to classify the food security status of the Household. Gradient Boosting (GB), Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), Bagging, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Ada Boost (AB) and Naive Bayes were the classification algorithms used throughout this study (NB). Then, we perform classification tasks from developing data set for household food security status by gathering data from HICE survey data and validating it by Domain Experts. The performance of all classifiers has better results for all performance metrics. The performance of the Random Forest and Gradient Boosting models are outstanding with a testing accuracy of 0.9997 and the other classifier such as Bagging, Decision tree, Ada Boost, Extra tree, K-nearest neighbor, Logistic Regression, SVM and Naive Bayes are scored 0.9996, 0.09996, 0.9994, 0.95675, 0.9415, 0.8915, 0.7853 and 0.7595, respectively.
On the Role of Entropy-based Loss for Learning Causal Structures with Continuous Optimization
Cai, Ruichu, Chen, Weilin, Qiao, Jie, Hao, Zhifeng
Causal discovery from observational data is an important but challenging task in many scientific fields. Recently, NOTEARS [Zheng et al., 2018] formulates the causal structure learning problem as a continuous optimization problem using least-square loss with an acyclicity constraint. Though the least-square loss function is well justified under the standard Gaussian noise assumption, it is limited if the assumption does not hold. In this work, we theoretically show that the violation of the Gaussian noise assumption will hinder the causal direction identification, making the causal orientation fully determined by the causal strength as well as the variances of noises in the linear case and the noises of strong non-Gaussianity in the nonlinear case. Consequently, we propose a more general entropy-based loss that is theoretically consistent with the likelihood score under any noise distribution. We run extensive empirical evaluations on both synthetic data and real-world data to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method and show that our method achieves the best in Structure Hamming Distance, False Discovery Rate, and True Positive Rate matrices.
Importance measures derived from random forests: characterisation and extension
Nowadays new technologies, and especially artificial intelligence, are more and more established in our society. Big data analysis and machine learning, two sub-fields of artificial intelligence, are at the core of many recent breakthroughs in many application fields (e.g., medicine, communication, finance, ...), including some that are strongly related to our day-to-day life (e.g., social networks, computers, smartphones, ...). In machine learning, significant improvements are usually achieved at the price of an increasing computational complexity and thanks to bigger datasets. Currently, cutting-edge models built by the most advanced machine learning algorithms typically became simultaneously very efficient and profitable but also extremely complex. Their complexity is to such an extent that these models are commonly seen as black-boxes providing a prediction or a decision which can not be interpreted or justified. Nevertheless, whether these models are used autonomously or as a simple decision-making support tool, they are already being used in machine learning applications where health and human life are at stake. Therefore, it appears to be an obvious necessity not to blindly believe everything coming out of those models without a detailed understanding of their predictions or decisions. Accordingly, this thesis aims at improving the interpretability of models built by a specific family of machine learning algorithms, the so-called tree-based methods. Several mechanisms have been proposed to interpret these models and we aim along this thesis to improve their understanding, study their properties, and define their limitations.
Taming Nonconvexity in Kernel Feature Selection---Favorable Properties of the Laplace Kernel
Ruan, Feng, Liu, Keli, Jordan, Michael I.
Kernel-based feature selection is an important tool in nonparametric statistics. Despite many practical applications of kernel-based feature selection, there is little statistical theory available to support the method. A core challenge is the objective function of the optimization problems used to define kernel-based feature selection are nonconvex. The literature has only studied the statistical properties of the \emph{global optima}, which is a mismatch, given that the gradient-based algorithms available for nonconvex optimization are only able to guarantee convergence to local minima. Studying the full landscape associated with kernel-based methods, we show that feature selection objectives using the Laplace kernel (and other $\ell_1$ kernels) come with statistical guarantees that other kernels, including the ubiquitous Gaussian kernel (or other $\ell_2$ kernels) do not possess. Based on a sharp characterization of the gradient of the objective function, we show that $\ell_1$ kernels eliminate unfavorable stationary points that appear when using an $\ell_2$ kernel. Armed with this insight, we establish statistical guarantees for $\ell_1$ kernel-based feature selection which do not require reaching the global minima. In particular, we establish model-selection consistency of $\ell_1$-kernel-based feature selection in recovering main effects and hierarchical interactions in the nonparametric setting with $n \sim \log p$ samples.
Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment Analysis, as the name suggests, it means to identify the view or emotion behind a situation. It basically means to analyze and find the emotion or intent behind a piece of text or speech or any mode of communication. In this article, we will focus on the sentiment analysis of text data. We, humans, communicate with each other in a variety of languages, and any language is just a mediator or a way in which we try to express ourselves. And, whatever we say has a sentiment associated with it.
Structured DropConnect for Uncertainty Inference in Image Classification
Zheng, Wenqing, Xie, Jiyang, Liu, Weidong, Ma, Zhanyu
With the complexity of the network structure, uncertainty inference has become an important task to improve classification accuracy for artificial intelligence systems. For image classification tasks, we propose a structured DropConnect (SDC) framework to model the output of a deep neural network by a Dirichlet distribution. We introduce a DropConnect strategy on weights in the fully connected layers during training. In test, we split the network into several sub-networks, and then model the Dirichlet distribution by match its moments with the mean and variance of the outputs of these sub-networks. The entropy of the estimated Dirichlet distribution is finally utilized for uncertainty inference. In this paper, this framework is implemented on LeNet5 and VGG16 models for misclassification detection and out-of-distribution detection on MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets. Experimental results show that the performance of the proposed SDC can be comparable to other uncertainty inference methods. Furthermore, the SDC is adapted well to different Figure 1: Illustration of the proposed structured DropConnect network structures with certain generalization capabilities and (SDC). In train phase, DropConnect is used on the research prospects.