Line of sight satellite systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, high-altitude platforms, and microwave links that operate on frequency bands such as Ka-band or higher are extremely susceptible to rain. Thus, rain fade forecasting for these systems is critical because it allows the system to switch between ground gateways proactively before a rain fade event to maintain seamless service. Although empirical, statistical, and fade slope models can predict rain fade to some extent, they typically require statistical measurements of rain characteristics in a given area and cannot be generalized to a large scale system. Furthermore, such models typically predict near-future rain fade events but are incapable of forecasting far into the future, making proactive resource management more difficult. In this paper, a deep learning (DL)-based architecture is proposed that forecasts future rain fade using satellite and radar imagery data as well as link power measurements. Furthermore, the data preprocessing and architectural design have been thoroughly explained and multiple experiments have been conducted. Experiments show that the proposed DL architecture outperforms current state-of-the-art machine learning-based algorithms in rain fade forecasting in the near and long term. Moreover, the results indicate that radar data with weather condition information is more effective for short-term prediction, while satellite data with cloud movement information is more effective for long-term predictions.

Empirical observations often consist of anomalies (or outliers) that contaminate the data. Accurate identification of anomalous samples is crucial for the success of downstream data analysis tasks. To automatically identify anomalies, we propose a new type of autoencoder (AE) which we term Probabilistic Robust autoencoder (PRAE). PRAE is designed to simultaneously remove outliers and identify a low-dimensional representation for the inlier samples. We first describe Robust AE (RAE) as a model that aims to split the data to inlier samples from which a low dimensional representation is learned via an AE, and anomalous (outlier) samples that are excluded as they do not fit the low dimensional representation. Robust AE minimizes the reconstruction of the AE while attempting to incorporate as many observations as possible. This could be realized by subtracting from the reconstruction term an $\ell_0$ norm counting the number of selected observations. Since the $\ell_0$ norm is not differentiable, we propose two probabilistic relaxations for the RAE approach and demonstrate that they can effectively identify anomalies. We prove that the solution to PRAE is equivalent to the solution of RAE and demonstrate using extensive simulations that PRAE is at par with state-of-the-art methods for anomaly detection.

While the 10-year survival rate for localized prostate cancer patients is very good (>98%), side effects of treatment may limit quality of life significantly. Erectile dysfunction (ED) is a common burden associated with increasing age as well as prostate cancer treatment. Although many studies have investigated the factors affecting erectile dysfunction (ED) after prostate cancer treatment, only limited studies have investigated whether ED can be predicted before the start of treatment. The advent of machine learning (ML) based prediction tools in oncology offers a promising approach to improve accuracy of prediction and quality of care. Predicting ED may help aid shared decision making by making the advantages and disadvantages of certain treatments clear, so that a tailored treatment for an individual patient can be chosen. This study aimed to predict ED at 1-year and 2-year post-diagnosis based on patient demographics, clinical data and patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) measured at diagnosis.

The tremendous success of generative models in recent years raises the question whether they can also be used to perform classification. Generative models have been used as adversarially robust classifiers on simple datasets such as MNIST, but this robustness has not been observed on more complex datasets like CIFAR-10. Additionally, on natural image datasets, previous results have suggested a trade-off between the likelihood of the data and classification accuracy. In this work, we investigate score-based generative models as classifiers for natural images. We show that these models not only obtain competitive likelihood values but simultaneously achieve state-of-the-art classification accuracy for generative classifiers on CIFAR-10. Nevertheless, we find that these models are only slightly, if at all, more robust than discriminative baseline models on out-of-distribution tasks based on common image corruptions. Similarly and contrary to prior results, we find that score-based are prone to worst-case distribution shifts in the form of adversarial perturbations. Our work highlights that score-based generative models are closing the gap in classification accuracy compared to standard discriminative models. While they do not yet deliver on the promise of adversarial and out-of-domain robustness, they provide a different approach to classification that warrants further research.

An increasingly common use case for machine learning models is augmenting the abilities of human decision makers. For classification tasks where neither the human or model are perfectly accurate, a key step in obtaining high performance is combining their individual predictions in a manner that leverages their relative strengths. In this work, we develop a set of algorithms that combine the probabilistic output of a model with the class-level output of a human. We show theoretically that the accuracy of our combination model is driven not only by the individual human and model accuracies, but also by the model's confidence. Empirical results on image classification with CIFAR-10 and a subset of ImageNet demonstrate that such human-model combinations consistently have higher accuracies than the model or human alone, and that the parameters of the combination method can be estimated effectively with as few as ten labeled datapoints.

Many organizations develop software systems using open source software (OSS), which is risky due to the high possibility of losing support. Contributors are critical for the survival of OSS projects, but very few new contributors remain with OSS projects to become long-time contributors (LTCs). Identification of factors that contribute to become an LTC can help OSS project owners utilize limited resources to retain new contributors. In this paper, we investigate whether we can effectively predict new contributors to OSS repositories becoming long time contributors based on repository and contributor meta-data collected from GitHub. We construct a dataset containing 70,899 observations from 888 most popular repositories with 56,766 contributors.

In Machine Learning Performance Metrics numbers have an important story to tell. They rely on you to give them a voice. Regardless of you are a non-technical person in sales, marketing or operations. Or whether you belong to a technical background such as data science, engineering or development. It is equally important for everyone to understand how performance metrics work for machine learning.

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is a psychiatric condition affecting nearly a quarter of the United States war veterans who return from war zones. Treatment for PTSD typically consists of a combination of in-session therapy and medication. However; patients often experience their most severe PTSD symptoms outside of therapy sessions. Mobile health applications may address this gap, but their effectiveness is limited by the current gap in continuous monitoring and detection capabilities enabling timely intervention. The goal of this article is to develop a novel method to detect hyperarousal events using physiological and activity-based machine learning algorithms. Physiological data including heart rate and body acceleration as well as self-reported hyperarousal events were collected using a tool developed for commercial off-the-shelf wearable devices from 99 United States veterans diagnosed with PTSD over several days. The data were used to develop four machine learning algorithms: Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression and XGBoost. The XGBoost model had the best performance in detecting onset of PTSD symptoms with over 83% accuracy and an AUC of 0.70. Post-hoc SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) additive explanation analysis showed that algorithm predictions were correlated with average heart rate, minimum heart rate and average body acceleration. Findings show promise in detecting onset of PTSD symptoms which could be the basis for developing remote and continuous monitoring systems for PTSD. Such systems may address a vital gap in just-in-time interventions for PTSD self-management outside of scheduled clinical appointments.

We propose a novel combinatorial inference framework to conduct general uncertainty quantification in ranking problems. We consider the widely adopted Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, where each item is assigned a positive preference score that determines the Bernoulli distributions of pairwise comparisons' outcomes. Our proposed method aims to infer general ranking properties of the BTL model. The general ranking properties include the "local" properties such as if an item is preferred over another and the "global" properties such as if an item is among the top $K$-ranked items. We further generalize our inferential framework to multiple testing problems where we control the false discovery rate (FDR), and apply the method to infer the top-$K$ ranked items. We also derive the information-theoretic lower bound to justify the minimax optimality of the proposed method. We conduct extensive numerical studies using both synthetic and real datasets to back up our theory.

Supervised training of neural networks requires large, diverse and well annotated data sets. In the medical field, this is often difficult to achieve due to constraints in time, expert knowledge and prevalence of an event. Artificial data augmentation can help to prevent overfitting and improve the detection of rare events as well as overall performance. However, most augmentation techniques use purely spatial transformations, which are not sufficient for video data with temporal correlations. In this paper, we present a novel methodology for workflow augmentation and demonstrate its benefit for event recognition in cataract surgery. The proposed approach increases the frequency of event alternation by creating artificial videos. The original video is split into event segments and a workflow graph is extracted from the original annotations. Finally, the segments are assembled into new videos based on the workflow graph. Compared to the original videos, the frequency of event alternation in the augmented cataract surgery videos increased by 26%. Further, a 3% higher classification accuracy and a 7.8% higher precision was achieved compared to a state-of-the-art approach. Our approach is particularly helpful to increase the occurrence of rare but important events and can be applied to a large variety of use cases.