The increasing complexity of today's software requires the contribution of thousands of developers. This complex collaboration structure makes developers more likely to introduce defect-prone changes that lead to software faults. Determining when these defect-prone changes are introduced has proven challenging, and using traditional machine learning (ML) methods to make these determinations seems to have reached a plateau. In this work, we build contribution graphs consisting of developers and source files to capture the nuanced complexity of changes required to build software. By leveraging these contribution graphs, our research shows the potential of using graph-based ML to improve Just-In-Time (JIT) defect prediction. We hypothesize that features extracted from the contribution graphs may be better predictors of defect-prone changes than intrinsic features derived from software characteristics. We corroborate our hypothesis using graph-based ML for classifying edges that represent defect-prone changes. This new framing of the JIT defect prediction problem leads to remarkably better results. We test our approach on 14 open-source projects and show that our best model can predict whether or not a code change will lead to a defect with an F1 score as high as 86.25$\%$. This represents an increase of as much as 55.4$\%$ over the state-of-the-art in JIT defect prediction. We describe limitations, open challenges, and how this method can be used for operational JIT defect prediction.

In my previous post, I introduced a framework to select the "right" KPIs to evaluate your machine learning models. When dealing with a classification problem, the chosen KPI will usually measure the rate of mistakes over time, as a point estimate (e.g. In this post, I will touch on one of the main challenges in many real world problems: how to know whether your model is actually correct or not. In supervised learning models, getting feedback on the model's decisions is crucial for both model training and evaluation. But getting such feedback can sometimes be very challenging or require a lot of resources.

False data injection attacks (FDIAs) represent a major class of attacks that aim to break the integrity of measurements by injecting false data into the smart metering devices in power grids. To the best of authors' knowledge, no study has attempted to design a detector that automatically models the underlying graph topology and spatially correlated measurement data of the smart grids to better detect cyber attacks. The contributions of this paper to detect and mitigate FDIAs are twofold. First, we present a generic, localized, and stealth (unobservable) attack generation methodology and publicly accessible datasets for researchers to develop and test their algorithms. Second, we propose a Graph Neural Network (GNN) based, scalable and real-time detector of FDIAs that efficiently combines model-driven and data-driven approaches by incorporating the inherent physical connections of modern AC power grids and exploiting the spatial correlations of the measurement. It is experimentally verified by comparing the proposed GNN based detector with the currently available FDIA detectors in the literature that our algorithm outperforms the best available solutions by 3.14%, 4.25%, and 4.41% in F1 score for standard IEEE testbeds with 14, 118, and 300 buses, respectively.

In this paper we present a new classification model in machine learning. Our result is threefold: 1) The model produces comparable predictive accuracy to that of most common classification models. 2) It runs significantly faster than most common classification models. 3) It has the ability to identify a portion of unseen samples for which class labels can be found with much higher predictive accuracy. Currently there are several patents pending on the proposed model.

False data injection attacks (FDIA) are a main category of cyber-attacks threatening the security of power systems. Contrary to the detection of these attacks, less attention has been paid to identifying the attacked units of the grid. To this end, this work jointly studies detecting and localizing the stealth FDIA in power grids. Exploiting the inherent graph topology of power systems as well as the spatial correlations of measurement data, this paper proposes an approach based on the graph neural network (GNN) to identify the presence and location of the FDIA. The proposed approach leverages the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) type graph filters (GFs) which can better adapt to sharp changes in the spectral domain due to their rational type filter composition compared to the polynomial type GFs such as Chebyshev. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work based on GNN that automatically detects and localizes FDIA in power systems. Extensive simulations and visualizations show that the proposed approach outperforms the available methods in both detection and localization of FDIA for different IEEE test systems. Thus, the targeted areas can be identified and preventive actions can be taken before the attack impacts the grid.

The essence of unsupervised anomaly detection is to learn the compact distribution of normal samples and detect outliers as anomalies in testing. Meanwhile, the anomalies in real-world are usually subtle and fine-grained in a high-resolution image especially for industrial applications. Towards this end, we propose a novel framework for unsupervised anomaly detection and localization. Our method aims at learning dense and compact distribution from normal images with a coarse-to-fine alignment process. The coarse alignment stage standardizes the pixel-wise position of objects in both image and feature levels. The fine alignment stage then densely maximizes the similarity of features among all corresponding locations in a batch. To facilitate the learning with only normal images, we propose a new pretext task called non-contrastive learning for the fine alignment stage. Non-contrastive learning extracts robust and discriminating normal image representations without making assumptions on abnormal samples, and it thus empowers our model to generalize to various anomalous scenarios. Extensive experiments on two typical industrial datasets of MVTec AD and BenTech AD demonstrate that our framework is effective in detecting various real-world defects and achieves a new state-of-the-art in industrial unsupervised anomaly detection.

Recent AI-related scandals have shed a spotlight on accountability in AI, with increasing public interest and concern. This paper draws on literature from public policy and governance to make two contributions. First, we propose an AI accountability ecosystem as a useful lens on the system, with different stakeholders requiring and contributing to specific accountability mechanisms. We argue that the present ecosystem is unbalanced, with a need for improved transparency via AI explainability and adequate documentation and process formalisation to support internal audit, leading up eventually to external accreditation processes. Second, we use a case study in the gambling sector to illustrate in a subset of the overall ecosystem the need for industry-specific accountability principles and processes. We define and evaluate critically the implementation of key accountability principles in the gambling industry, namely addressing algorithmic bias and model explainability, before concluding and discussing directions for future work based on our findings. Keywords: Accountability, Explainable AI, Algorithmic Bias, Regulation.

Algorithmic bias is of increasing concern, both to the research community, and society at large. Bias in AI is more abstract and unintuitive than traditional forms of discrimination and can be more difficult to detect and mitigate. A clear gap exists in the current literature on evaluating the relative bias in the performance of multi-class classifiers. In this work, we propose two simple yet effective metrics, Combined Error Variance (CEV) and Symmetric Distance Error (SDE), to quantitatively evaluate the class-wise bias of two models in comparison to one another. By evaluating the performance of these new metrics and by demonstrating their practical application, we show that they can be used to measure fairness as well as bias. These demonstrations show that our metrics can address specific needs for measuring bias in multi-class classification. Broad acceptance of the large-scale deployment of AI and neural networks depends on the models' perceived trustworthiness and fairness. However, research on evaluating and mitigating bias for neural networks in general and compressed neural networks in particular is still in its infancy. Because deep neural networks (DNNs) are "black box" learners, it can be difficult to understand what correlations they have learned from their training data, and how that affects the downstream decisions that are made in the real world. Two models may appear to have very similar performance when only measured in terms of accuracy, precision, etc. but deeper analysis can show uneven performance across many classes.

Machine learning has successfully framed many sequential decision making problems as either supervised prediction, or optimal decision-making policy identification via reinforcement learning. In data-constrained offline settings, both approaches may fail as they assume fully optimal behavior or rely on exploring alternatives that may not exist. We introduce an inherently different approach that identifies possible ``dead-ends'' of a state space. We focus on the condition of patients in the intensive care unit, where a ``medical dead-end'' indicates that a patient will expire, regardless of all potential future treatment sequences. We postulate ``treatment security'' as avoiding treatments with probability proportional to their chance of leading to dead-ends, present a formal proof, and frame discovery as an RL problem. We then train three independent deep neural models for automated state construction, dead-end discovery and confirmation. Our empirical results discover that dead-ends exist in real clinical data among septic patients, and further reveal gaps between secure treatments and those that were administered.

Market manipulation is tackled through regulation in traditional markets because of its detrimental effect on market efficiency and many participating financial actors. The recent increase of private retail investors due to new low-fee platforms and new asset classes such as decentralised digital currencies has increased the number of vulnerable actors due to lack of institutional sophistication and strong regulation. This paper proposes a method to detect illicit activity and inform investors on spoofing attempts, a well-known market manipulation technique. Our framework is based on a highly extendable Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model and allows the inclusion of market variables that can explain spoofing and potentially other illicit activities. The model is tested on granular order book data, in one of the most unregulated markets prone to spoofing with a large number of non-institutional traders. The results show that the model is performing well in an early detection context, allowing the identification of spoofing attempts soon enough to allow investors to react. This is the first step to a fully comprehensive model that will protect investors in various unregulated trading environments and regulators to identify illicit activity.