Machine learning and artificial intelligence methods are often referred to as "black boxes" when compared with traditional regression-based approaches. However, both traditional and machine learning methods are concerned with modeling the joint distribution between endogenous (target) and exogenous (input) variables. Where linear models describe the fitted relationship between the target and input variables via the slope of that relationship (coefficient estimates), the same fitted relationship can be described rigorously for any machine learning model by first-differencing the partial dependence functions. Bootstrapping these first-differenced functionals provides standard errors and confidence intervals for the estimated relationships. We show that this approach replicates the point estimates of OLS coefficients and demonstrate how this generalizes to marginal relationships in machine learning and artificial intelligence models. We further discuss the relationship of partial dependence functions to Shapley value decompositions and explore how they can be used to further explain model outputs.

This paper considers the learning of Boolean rules in either disjunctive normal form (DNF, OR-of-ANDs, equivalent to decision rule sets) or conjunctive normal form (CNF, AND-of-ORs) as an interpretable model for classification. An integer program is formulated to optimally trade classification accuracy for rule simplicity. We also consider the fairness setting and extend the formulation to include explicit constraints on two different measures of classification parity: equality of opportunity and equalized odds. Column generation (CG) is used to efficiently search over an exponential number of candidate clauses (conjunctions or disjunctions) without the need for heuristic rule mining. This approach also bounds the gap between the selected rule set and the best possible rule set on the training data. To handle large datasets, we propose an approximate CG algorithm using randomization. Compared to three recently proposed alternatives, the CG algorithm dominates the accuracy-simplicity trade-off in 8 out of 16 datasets. When maximized for accuracy, CG is competitive with rule learners designed for this purpose, sometimes finding significantly simpler solutions that are no less accurate. Compared to other fair and interpretable classifiers, our method is able to find rule sets that meet stricter notions of fairness with a modest trade-off in accuracy.

The four essential chambers of one's heart that lie in the thoracic cavity are crucial for one's survival, yet ironically prove to be the most vulnerable. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) also commonly referred to as heart disease has steadily grown to the leading cause of death amongst humans over the past few decades. Taking this concerning statistic into consideration, it is evident that patients suffering from CVDs need a quick and correct diagnosis in order to facilitate early treatment to lessen the chances of fatality. This paper attempts to utilize the data provided to train classification models such as Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and Multi-Layer Perceptron (Artificial Neural Network) and eventually using a soft voting ensemble technique in order to attain as many correct diagnoses as possible.

Purpose: Mitral valve repair is a complex minimally invasive surgery of the heart valve. In this context, suture detection from endoscopic images is a highly relevant task that provides quantitative information to analyse suturing patterns, assess prosthetic configurations and produce augmented reality visualisations. Facial or anatomical landmark detection tasks typically contain a fixed number of landmarks, and use regression or fixed heatmap-based approaches to localize the landmarks. However in endoscopy, there are a varying number of sutures in every image, and the sutures may occur at any location in the annulus, as they are not semantically unique. Method: In this work, we formulate the suture detection task as a multi-instance deep heatmap regression problem, to identify entry and exit points of sutures. We extend our previous work, and introduce the novel use of a 2D Gaussian layer followed by a differentiable 2D spatial Soft-Argmax layer to function as a local non-maximum suppression. Results: We present extensive experiments with multiple heatmap distribution functions and two variants of the proposed model. In the intra-operative domain, Variant 1 showed a mean F1 of +0.0422 over the baseline. Similarly, in the simulator domain, Variant 1 showed a mean F1 of +0.0865 over the baseline. Conclusion: The proposed model shows an improvement over the baseline in the intra-operative and the simulator domains. The data is made publicly available within the scope of the MICCAI AdaptOR2021 Challenge https://adaptor2021.github.io/, and the code at https://github.com/Cardio-AI/suture-detection-pytorch/. DOI:10.1007/s11548-021-02523-w. The link to the open access article can be found here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11548-021-02523-w

Predictive models for medical outcomes hold great promise for enhancing clinical decision-making. These models are trained on rich patient data such as clinical notes, aggregating many patient signals into an outcome prediction. However, AI-based clinical models have typically been developed in isolation from the prominent paradigm of Evidence Based Medicine (EBM), in which medical decisions are based on explicit evidence from existing literature. In this work, we introduce techniques to help bridge this gap between EBM and AI-based clinical models, and show that these methods can improve predictive accuracy. We propose a novel system that automatically retrieves patient-specific literature based on intensive care (ICU) patient information, aggregates relevant papers and fuses them with internal admission notes to form outcome predictions. Our model is able to substantially boost predictive accuracy on three challenging tasks in comparison to strong recent baselines; for in-hospital mortality, we are able to boost top-10% precision by a large margin of over 25%.

Modern cloud computing systems contain hundreds to thousands of computing and storage servers. Such a scale, combined with ever-growing system complexity, is causing a key challenge to failure and resource management for dependable cloud computing. Autonomic failure detection is a crucial technique for understanding emergent, cloud-wide phenomena and self-managing cloud resources for system-level dependability assurance. To detect failures, we need to monitor the cloud execution and collect runtime performance data. These data are usually unlabeled, and thus a prior failure history is not always available in production clouds. In this paper, we present a \emph{self-evolving anomaly detection} (SEAD) framework for cloud dependability assurance. Our framework self-evolves by recursively exploring newly verified anomaly records and continuously updating the anomaly detector online. As a distinct advantage of our framework, cloud system administrators only need to check a small number of detected anomalies, and their decisions are leveraged to update the detector. Thus, the detector evolves following the upgrade of system hardware, update of the software stack, and change of user workloads. Moreover, we design two types of detectors, one for general anomaly detection and the other for type-specific anomaly detection. With the help of self-evolving techniques, our detectors can achieve 88.94\% in sensitivity and 94.60\% in specificity on average, which makes them suitable for real-world deployment.

Normalizing flows are prominent deep generative models that provide tractable probability distributions and efficient density estimation. However, they are well known to fail while detecting Out-of-Distribution (OOD) inputs as they directly encode the local features of the input representations in their latent space. In this paper, we solve this overconfidence issue of normalizing flows by demonstrating that flows, if extended by an attention mechanism, can reliably detect outliers including adversarial attacks. Our approach does not require outlier data for training and we showcase the efficiency of our method for OOD detection by reporting state-of-the-art performance in diverse experimental settings.

Despite AI's superhuman performance in a variety of domains, humans are often unwilling to adopt AI systems. The lack of interpretability inherent in many modern AI techniques is believed to be hurting their adoption, as users may not trust systems whose decision processes they do not understand. We investigate this proposition with a novel experiment in which we use an interactive prediction task to analyze the impact of interpretability and outcome feedback on trust in AI and on human performance in AI-assisted prediction tasks. We find that interpretability led to no robust improvements in trust, while outcome feedback had a significantly greater and more reliable effect. However, both factors had modest effects on participants' task performance. Our findings suggest that (1) factors receiving significant attention, such as interpretability, may be less effective at increasing trust than factors like outcome feedback, and (2) augmenting human performance via AI systems may not be a simple matter of increasing trust in AI, as increased trust is not always associated with equally sizable improvements in performance. These findings invite the research community to focus not only on methods for generating interpretations but also on techniques for ensuring that interpretations impact trust and performance in practice.

This paper considers the problem of estimating the unknown intervention targets in a causal directed acyclic graph from observational and interventional data. The focus is on soft interventions in linear structural equation models (SEMs). Current approaches to causal structure learning either work with known intervention targets or use hypothesis testing to discover the unknown intervention targets even for linear SEMs. This severely limits their scalability and sample complexity. This paper proposes a scalable and efficient algorithm that consistently identifies all intervention targets. The pivotal idea is to estimate the intervention sites from the difference between the precision matrices associated with the observational and interventional datasets. It involves repeatedly estimating such sites in different subsets of variables. The proposed algorithm can be used to also update a given observational Markov equivalence class into the interventional Markov equivalence class. Consistency, Markov equivalency, and sample complexity are established analytically. Finally, simulation results on both real and synthetic data demonstrate the gains of the proposed approach for scalable causal structure recovery. Implementation of the algorithm and the code to reproduce the simulation results are available at \url{https://github.com/bvarici/intervention-estimation}.

In this paper we study the statistical properties of Principal Components Regression with Laplacian Eigenmaps (PCR-LE), a method for nonparametric regression based on Laplacian Eigenmaps (LE). PCR-LE works by projecting a vector of observed responses ${\bf Y} = (Y_1,\ldots,Y_n)$ onto a subspace spanned by certain eigenvectors of a neighborhood graph Laplacian. We show that PCR-LE achieves minimax rates of convergence for random design regression over Sobolev spaces. Under sufficient smoothness conditions on the design density $p$, PCR-LE achieves the optimal rates for both estimation (where the optimal rate in squared $L^2$ norm is known to be $n^{-2s/(2s + d)}$) and goodness-of-fit testing ($n^{-4s/(4s + d)}$). We also show that PCR-LE is \emph{manifold adaptive}: that is, we consider the situation where the design is supported on a manifold of small intrinsic dimension $m$, and give upper bounds establishing that PCR-LE achieves the faster minimax estimation ($n^{-2s/(2s + m)}$) and testing ($n^{-4s/(4s + m)}$) rates of convergence. Interestingly, these rates are almost always much faster than the known rates of convergence of graph Laplacian eigenvectors to their population-level limits; in other words, for this problem regression with estimated features appears to be much easier, statistically speaking, than estimating the features itself. We support these theoretical results with empirical evidence.