Research on intelligent tutoring systems has been exploring data-driven methods to deliver effective adaptive assistance. While much work has been done to provide adaptive assistance when students seek help, they may not seek help optimally. This had led to the growing interest in proactive adaptive assistance, where the tutor provides unsolicited assistance upon predictions of struggle or unproductivity. Determining when and whether to provide personalized support is a well-known challenge called the assistance dilemma. Addressing this dilemma is particularly challenging in open-ended domains, where there can be several ways to solve problems. Researchers have explored methods to determine when to proactively help students, but few of these methods have taken prior hint usage into account. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven approach to incorporate students' hint usage in predicting their need for help. We explore its impact in an intelligent tutor that deals with the open-ended and well-structured domain of logic proofs. We present a controlled study to investigate the impact of an adaptive hint policy based on predictions of HelpNeed that incorporate students' hint usage. We show empirical evidence to support that such a policy can save students a significant amount of time in training, and lead to improved posttest results, when compared to a control without proactive interventions. We also show that incorporating students' hint usage significantly improves the adaptive hint policy's efficacy in predicting students' HelpNeed, thereby reducing training unproductivity, reducing possible help avoidance, and increasing possible help appropriateness (a higher chance of receiving help when it was likely to be needed). We conclude with suggestions on the domains that can benefit from this approach as well as the requirements for adoption.

Networks and temporal point processes serve as fundamental building blocks for modeling complex dynamic relational data in various domains. We propose the latent space Hawkes (LSH) model, a novel generative model for continuous-time networks of relational events, using a latent space representation for nodes. We model relational events between nodes using mutually exciting Hawkes processes with baseline intensities dependent upon the distances between the nodes in the latent space and sender and receiver specific effects. We demonstrate that our proposed LSH model can replicate many features observed in real temporal networks including reciprocity and transitivity, while also achieving superior prediction accuracy and providing more interpretable fits than existing models.

As the number of smart devices that surround us increases, so do the opportunities to create smart socially-aware systems. In this context, mobile devices can be used to collect data about students and to better understand how their day-to-day routines can influence their academic performance. Moreover, the Covid-19 pandemic led to new challenges and difficulties, also for students, with considerable impact on their lifestyle. In this paper we present a dataset collected using a smartphone application (ISABELA), which include passive data (e.g., activity and location) as well as self-reported data from questionnaires. We present several tests with different machine learning models, in order to classify students' performance. These tests were carried out using different time windows, showing that weekly time windows lead to better prediction and classification results than monthly time windows. Furthermore, it is shown that the created models can predict student performance even with data collected from different contexts, namely before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. SVMs, XGBoost and AdaBoost-SAMME with Random Forest were found to be the best algorithms, showing an accuracy greater than 78%. Additionally, we propose a pipeline that uses a decision level median voting algorithm to further improve the models' performance, by using historic data from the students to further improve the prediction. Using this pipeline, it is possible to further increase the performance of the models, with some of them obtaining an accuracy greater than 90%.

In this paper we share findings from our effort to build practical machine translation (MT) systems capable of translating across over one thousand languages. We describe results in three research domains: (i) Building clean, web-mined datasets for 1500+ languages by leveraging semi-supervised pre-training for language identification and developing data-driven filtering techniques; (ii) Developing practical MT models for under-served languages by leveraging massively multilingual models trained with supervised parallel data for over 100 high-resource languages and monolingual datasets for an additional 1000+ languages; and (iii) Studying the limitations of evaluation metrics for these languages and conducting qualitative analysis of the outputs from our MT models, highlighting several frequent error modes of these types of models. We hope that our work provides useful insights to practitioners working towards building MT systems for currently understudied languages, and highlights research directions that can complement the weaknesses of massively multilingual models in data-sparse settings.

Machine prediction algorithms (e.g., binary classifiers) often are adopted on the basis of claimed performance using classic metrics such as sensitivity and predictive value. However, classifier performance depends heavily upon the context (workflow) in which the classifier operates. Classic metrics do not reflect the realized utility of a predictor unless certain implicit assumptions are met, and these assumptions cannot be met in many common clinical scenarios. This often results in suboptimal implementations and in disappointment when expected outcomes are not achieved. One common failure mode for classic metrics arises when multiple predictions can be made for the same event, particularly when redundant true positive predictions produce little additional value. This describes many clinical alerting systems. We explain why classic metrics cannot correctly represent predictor performance in such contexts, and introduce an improved performance assessment technique using utility functions to score predictions based on their utility in a specific workflow context. The resulting utility metrics (u-metrics) explicitly account for the effects of temporal relationships on prediction utility. Compared to traditional measures, u-metrics more accurately reflect the real world costs and benefits of a predictor operating in a live clinical context. The improvement can be significant. We also describe a formal approach to snoozing, a mitigation strategy in which some predictions are suppressed to improve predictor performance by reducing false positives while retaining event capture. Snoozing is especially useful for predictors that generate interruptive alarms. U-metrics correctly measure and predict the performance benefits of snoozing, whereas traditional metrics do not.

As engineered systems grow in complexity, there is an increasing need for automatic methods that can detect, diagnose, and even correct transient anomalies that inevitably arise and can be difficult or impossible to diagnose and fix manually. Among the most sensitive and complex systems of our civilization are the detectors that search for incredibly small variations in distance caused by gravitational waves -- phenomena originally predicted by Albert Einstein to emerge and propagate through the universe as the result of collisions between black holes and other massive objects in deep space. The extreme complexity and precision of such detectors causes them to be subject to transient noise issues that can significantly limit their sensitivity and effectiveness. In this work, we present a demonstration of a method that can detect and characterize emergent transient anomalies of such massively complex systems. We illustrate the performance, precision, and adaptability of the automated solution via one of the prevalent issues limiting gravitational-wave discoveries: noise artifacts of terrestrial origin that contaminate gravitational wave observatories' highly sensitive measurements and can obscure or even mimic the faint astrophysical signals for which they are listening. Specifically, we demonstrate how a highly interpretable convolutional classifier can automatically learn to detect transient anomalies from auxiliary detector data without needing to observe the anomalies themselves. We also illustrate several other useful features of the model, including how it performs automatic variable selection to reduce tens of thousands of auxiliary data channels to only a few relevant ones; how it identifies behavioral signatures predictive of anomalies in those channels; and how it can be used to investigate individual anomalies and the channels associated with them.

As our ability to sense increases, we are experiencing a transition from data-poor problems, in which the central issue is a lack of relevant data, to data-rich problems, in which the central issue is to identify a few relevant features in a sea of observations. Motivated by applications in gravitational-wave astrophysics, we study the problem of predicting the presence of transient noise artifacts in a gravitational wave detector from a rich collection of measurements from the detector and its environment. We argue that feature learning--in which relevant features are optimized from data--is critical to achieving high accuracy. We introduce models that reduce the error rate by over 60% compared to the previous state of the art, which used fixed, hand-crafted features. Feature learning is useful not only because it improves performance on prediction tasks; the results provide valuable information about patterns associated with phenomena of interest that would otherwise be undiscoverable. In our application, features found to be associated with transient noise provide diagnostic information about its origin and suggest mitigation strategies. Learning in high-dimensional settings is challenging. Through experiments with a variety of architectures, we identify two key factors in successful models: sparsity, for selecting relevant variables within the high-dimensional observations; and depth, which confers flexibility for handling complex interactions and robustness with respect to temporal variations. We illustrate their significance through systematic experiments on real detector data. Our results provide experimental corroboration of common assumptions in the machine-learning community and have direct applicability to improving our ability to sense gravitational waves, as well as to many other problem settings with similarly high-dimensional, noisy, or partly irrelevant data.

The rapid growth of connected devices has led to the proliferation of novel cyber-security threats known as zero-day attacks. Traditional behaviour-based IDS rely on DNN to detect these attacks. The quality of the dataset used to train the DNN plays a critical role in the detection performance, with underrepresented samples causing poor performances. In this paper, we develop and evaluate the performance of DBN on detecting cyber-attacks within a network of connected devices. The CICIDS2017 dataset was used to train and evaluate the performance of our proposed DBN approach. Several class balancing techniques were applied and evaluated. Lastly, we compare our approach against a conventional MLP model and the existing state-of-the-art. Our proposed DBN approach shows competitive and promising results, with significant performance improvement on the detection of attacks underrepresented in the training dataset.

AUC measures the power of discrimination and it ignores the predicted probability values and the goodness-of-fit of the model. It is possible that a well fitted model has poor discrimination, if probabilities for positives are only moderately higher than those for negatives. It summarizes the test performance over regions of the ROC space in which one would rarely operate. For example, general ml tasks would rarely operate in the extreme left hand side (high false negative) of the curve and extreme right hand side (high false positive). For example in medical diagnostics, false negatives are more expensive than false positives. It does not give information about the spatial distribution of model errors.

The digitization of all manner of services has introduced recommendation systems into many aspects of our day-to-day lives. In particular, recommendation systems are now being applied to safety-critical domains such as making lifestyle recommendations to patients in healthcare [Hammer et al., 2015, Tran et al., 2021]. It is therefore increasingly important that deployed recommender systems do not output recommendations devoid of uncertainty annotations. Meaningful recommendations should come with transparent and reliable statistical assessments. To date, the majority of deployed systems have fallen far short of this desideratum [Covington et al., 2016, Liu et al., 2017, Geyik et al., 2018]. Augmenting recommendation systems with internal tracking of statistical error rates would unlock new capabilities and applications. One such capability is the ability to enforce auxiliary constraints while still guaranteeing a baseline number of high-quality items in each slate of recommendations. For example, we could diversify slates whose quality we are confident in, while leaving lower-confidence slates untouched. Furthermore, the strong guarantees provided by uncertainty quantification are a prerequisite for applying recommendation systems to safety-critical tasks such as medical diagnosis, where a misdiagnosis due to uncertain predictions can be fatal.