With growing credit card transaction volumes, the fraud percentages are also rising, including overhead costs for institutions to combat and compensate victims. The use of machine learning into the financial sector permits more effective protection against fraud and other economic crime. Suitably trained machine learning classifiers help proactive fraud detection, improving stakeholder trust and robustness against illicit transactions. However, the design of machine learning based fraud detection algorithms has been challenging and slow due the massively unbalanced nature of fraud data and the challenges of identifying the frauds accurately and completely to create a gold standard ground truth. Furthermore, there are no benchmarks or standard classifier evaluation metrics to measure and identify better performing classifiers, thus keeping researchers in the dark. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation to model human annotation errors and extreme imbalance typical in real world fraud detection data sets. By conducting empirical experiments on a hypothetical classifier, with a synthetic data distribution approximated to a popular real world credit card fraud data set, we simulate human annotation errors and extreme imbalance to observe the behavior of popular machine learning classifier evaluation matrices. We demonstrate that a combined F1 score and g-mean, in that specific order, is the best evaluation metric for typical imbalanced fraud detection model classification.

Topology inference for network systems (NSs) plays a crucial role in many areas. This paper advocates a causality-based method based on noisy observations from a single trajectory of a NS, which is represented by the state-space model with general directed topology. Specifically, we first prove its close relationships with the ideal Granger estimator for multiple trajectories and the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator for a single trajectory. Along with this line, we analyze the non-asymptotic inference performance of the proposed method by taking the OLS estimator as a reference, covering both asymptotically and marginally stable systems. The derived convergence rates and accuracy results suggest the proposed method has better performance in addressing potentially correlated observations and achieves zero inference error asymptotically. Besides, an online/recursive version of our method is established for efficient computation or time-varying cases. Extensions on NSs with nonlinear dynamics are also discussed. Comprehensive tests corroborate the theoretical findings and comparisons with other algorithms highlight the superiority of the proposed method.

Driven by the goal of eradicating language barriers on a global scale, machine translation has solidified itself as a key focus of artificial intelligence research today. However, such efforts have coalesced around a small subset of languages, leaving behind the vast majority of mostly low-resource languages. What does it take to break the 200 language barrier while ensuring safe, high quality results, all while keeping ethical considerations in mind? In No Language Left Behind, we took on this challenge by first contextualizing the need for low-resource language translation support through exploratory interviews with native speakers. Then, we created datasets and models aimed at narrowing the performance gap between low and high-resource languages. More specifically, we developed a conditional compute model based on Sparsely Gated Mixture of Experts that is trained on data obtained with novel and effective data mining techniques tailored for low-resource languages. We propose multiple architectural and training improvements to counteract overfitting while training on thousands of tasks. Critically, we evaluated the performance of over 40,000 different translation directions using a human-translated benchmark, Flores-200, and combined human evaluation with a novel toxicity benchmark covering all languages in Flores-200 to assess translation safety. Our model achieves an improvement of 44% BLEU relative to the previous state-of-the-art, laying important groundwork towards realizing a universal translation system.

The growth of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) is a predictor of rupture. Therefore, for further imaging surveillance and treatment planning, it is important to be able to predict if an UIA is likely to grow based on an initial baseline Time-of-Flight MRA (TOF-MRA). It is known that the size and shape of UIAs are predictors of aneurysm growth and/or rupture. We perform a feasibility study of using a mesh convolutional neural network for future UIA growth prediction from baseline TOF-MRAs. We include 151 TOF-MRAs, with 169 UIAs where 49 UIAs were classified as growing and 120 as stable, based on the clinical definition of growth (>1 mm increase in size in follow-up scan). UIAs were segmented from TOF-MRAs and meshes were automatically generated. We investigate the input of both UIA mesh only and region-of-interest (ROI) meshes including UIA and surrounding parent vessels. We develop a classification model to predict UIAs that will grow or remain stable. The model consisted of a mesh convolutional neural network including additional novel input edge features of shape index and curvedness which describe the surface topology. It was investigated if input edge mid-point co-ordinates influenced the model performance. The model with highest AUC (63.8%) for growth prediction was using UIA meshes with input edge mid-point co-ordinate features (average F1 score = 62.3%, accuracy = 66.9%, sensitivity = 57.3%, specificity = 70.8%). We present a future UIA growth prediction model based on a mesh convolutional neural network with promising results.

Service monitoring applications continuously produce data to monitor their availability. Hence, it is critical to classify incoming data in real-time and accurately. For this purpose, our study develops an adaptive classification approach using Learn++ that can handle evolving data distributions. This approach sequentially predicts and updates the monitoring model with new data, gradually forgets past knowledge and identifies sudden concept drift. We employ consecutive data chunks obtained from an industrial application to evaluate the performance of the predictors incrementally.

We present an expository overview of technical and cultural challenges to the development and adoption of automation at various stages in the data science prediction lifecycle, restricting focus to supervised learning with structured datasets. In addition, we review popular open source Python tools implementing common solution patterns for the automation challenges and highlight gaps where we feel progress still demands to be made.

Mechanical exfoliation of graphene and its identification by optical inspection is one of the milestones in condensed matter physics that sparked the field of 2D materials. Finding regions of interest from the entire sample space and identification of layer number is a routine task potentially amenable to automatization. We propose supervised pixel-wise classification methods showing a high performance even with a small number of training image datasets that require short computational time without GPU. We introduce four different tree-based machine learning algorithms -- decision tree, random forest, extreme gradient boost, and light gradient boosting machine. We train them with five optical microscopy images of graphene, and evaluate their performances with multiple metrics and indices. We also discuss combinatorial machine learning models between the three single classifiers and assess their performances in identification and reliability. The code developed in this paper is open to the public and will be released at github.com/gjung-group/Graphene_segmentation.

Recent research has shown that seemingly fair machine learning models, when used to inform decisions that have an impact on peoples' lives or well-being (e.g., applications involving education, employment, and lending), can inadvertently increase social inequality in the long term. This is because prior fairness-aware algorithms only consider static fairness constraints, such as equal opportunity or demographic parity. However, enforcing constraints of this type may result in models that have negative long-term impact on disadvantaged individuals and communities. We introduce ELF (Enforcing Long-term Fairness), the first classification algorithm that provides high-confidence fairness guarantees in terms of long-term, or delayed, impact. We prove that the probability that ELF returns an unfair solution is less than a user-specified tolerance and that (under mild assumptions), given sufficient training data, ELF is able to find and return a fair solution if one exists. We show experimentally that our algorithm can successfully mitigate long-term unfairness.

The advance of Machine Learning (ML) has led to a strong interest in this technology to support decision making. While complex ML models provide predictions that are often more accurate than those of traditional tools, such models often hide the reasoning behind the prediction from their users, which can lead to lower adoption and lack of insight. Motivated by this tension, research has put forth Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques that uncover patterns discovered by ML. Despite the high hopes in both ML and XAI, there is little empirical evidence of the benefits to traditional businesses. To this end, we analyze data on 220,185 customers of an energy retailer, predict cross-purchases with up to 86% correctness (AUC), and show that the XAI method SHAP provides explanations that hold for actual buyers.

Learning from imbalanced data is a challenging task. Standard classification algorithms tend to perform poorly when trained on imbalanced data. Some special strategies need to be adopted, either by modifying the data distribution or by redesigning the underlying classification algorithm to achieve desirable performance. The prevalence of imbalance in real-world datasets has led to the creation of a multitude of strategies for the class imbalance issue. However, not all the strategies are useful or provide good performance in different imbalance scenarios. There are numerous approaches to dealing with imbalanced data, but the efficacy of such techniques or an experimental comparison among those techniques has not been conducted. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of 26 popular sampling techniques to understand their effectiveness in dealing with imbalanced data. Rigorous experiments have been conducted on 50 datasets with different degrees of imbalance to thoroughly investigate the performance of these techniques. A detailed discussion of the advantages and limitations of the techniques, as well as how to overcome such limitations, has been presented. We identify some critical factors that affect the sampling strategies and provide recommendations on how to choose an appropriate sampling technique for a particular application.