Electron density irregularities present within the ionosphere induce significant fluctuations in global navigation satellite system (GNSS) signals. Fluctuations in signal power are referred to as amplitude scintillation and can be monitored through the S4 index. Forecasting the severity of amplitude scintillation based on historical S4 index data is beneficial when real-time data is unavailable. In this work, we study the possibility of using historical data from a single GPS scintillation monitoring receiver to train a machine learning (ML) model to forecast the severity of amplitude scintillation, either weak, moderate, or severe, with respect to temporal and spatial parameters. Six different ML models were evaluated and the bagged trees model was the most accurate among them, achieving a forecasting accuracy of $81\%$ using a balanced dataset, and $97\%$ using an imbalanced dataset.

The application of machine learning to physics problems is widely found in the scientific literature. Both regression and classification problems are addressed by a large array of techniques that involve learning algorithms. Unfortunately, the measurement errors of the data used to train machine learning models are almost always neglected. This leads to estimations of the performance of the models (and thus their generalisation power) that is too optimistic since it is always assumed that the target variables (what one wants to predict) are correct. In physics, this is a dramatic deficiency as it can lead to the belief that theories or patterns exist where, in reality, they do not. This paper addresses this deficiency by deriving formulas for commonly used metrics (both for regression and classification problems) that take into account measurement errors of target variables. The new formulas give an estimation of the metrics which is always more pessimistic than what is obtained with the classical ones, not taking into account measurement errors. The formulas given here are of general validity, completely model-independent, and can be applied without limitations. Thus, with statistical confidence, one can analyze the existence of relationships when dealing with measurements with errors of any kind. The formulas have wide applicability outside physics and can be used in all problems where measurement errors are relevant to the conclusions of studies.

Human action recognition in computer vision has been widely studied in recent years. However, most algorithms consider only certain action specially with even high computational cost. That is not suitable for practical applications with multiple actions to be identified with low computational cost. To meet various application scenarios, this paper presents a unified human action recognition framework composed of two modules, i.e., multi-form human detection and corresponding action classification. Among them, an open-source dataset is constructed to train a multi-form human detection model that distinguishes a human being's whole body, upper body or part body, and the followed action classification model is adopted to recognize such action as falling, sleeping or on-duty, etc. Some experimental results show that the unified framework is effective for various application scenarios. It is expected to be a new application-driven AI paradigm for human action recognition.

New methods designed to preserve data privacy require careful scrutiny. Failure to preserve privacy is hard to detect, and yet can lead to catastrophic results when a system implementing a ``privacy-preserving'' method is attacked. A recent work selected for an Outstanding Paper Award at ICML 2022 (Dong et al., 2022) claims that dataset condensation (DC) significantly improves data privacy when training machine learning models. This claim is supported by theoretical analysis of a specific dataset condensation technique and an empirical evaluation of resistance to some existing membership inference attacks. In this note we examine the claims in the work of Dong et al. (2022) and describe major flaws in the empirical evaluation of the method and its theoretical analysis. These flaws imply that their work does not provide statistically significant evidence that DC improves the privacy of training ML models over a naive baseline. Moreover, previously published results show that DP-SGD, the standard approach to privacy preserving ML, simultaneously gives better accuracy and achieves a (provably) lower membership attack success rate.

To discover new drugs is to seek and to prove causality. As an emerging approach leveraging human knowledge and creativity, data, and machine intelligence, causal inference holds the promise of reducing cognitive bias and improving decision making in drug discovery. While it has been applied across the value chain, the concepts and practice of causal inference remain obscure to many practitioners. This article offers a non-technical introduction to causal inference, reviews its recent applications, and discusses opportunities and challenges of adopting the causal language in drug discovery and development.

We consider a latent space model for dynamic networks, where our objective is to estimate the pairwise inner products of the latent positions. To balance posterior inference and computational scalability, we present a structured mean-field variational inference framework, where the time-dependent properties of the dynamic networks are exploited to facilitate computation and inference. Additionally, an easy-to-implement block coordinate ascent algorithm is developed with message-passing type updates in each block, whereas the complexity per iteration is linear with the number of nodes and time points. To facilitate learning of the pairwise latent distances, we adopt a Gamma prior for the transition variance different from the literature. To certify the optimality, we demonstrate that the variational risk of the proposed variational inference approach attains the minimax optimal rate under certain conditions. En route, we derive the minimax lower bound, which might be of independent interest. To best of our knowledge, this is the first such exercise for dynamic latent space models. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate the efficacy of our methodology and the efficiency of our algorithm. Finally, our proposed methodology can be readily extended to the case where the scales of the latent nodes are learned in a nodewise manner.

The presence of snow and ice on runway surfaces reduces the available tire-pavement friction needed for retardation and directional control and causes potential economic and safety threats for the aviation industry during the winter seasons. To activate appropriate safety procedures, pilots need accurate and timely information on the actual runway surface conditions. In this study, XGBoost is used to create a combined runway assessment system, which includes a classification model to identify slippery conditions and a regression model to predict the level of slipperiness. The models are trained on weather data and runway reports. The runway surface conditions are represented by the tire-pavement friction coefficient, which is estimated from flight sensor data from landing aircrafts. The XGBoost models are combined with SHAP approximations to provide a reliable decision support system for airport operators, which can contribute to safer and more economic operations of airport runways. To evaluate the performance of the prediction models, they are compared to several state-of-the-art runway assessment methods. The XGBoost models identify slippery runway conditions with a ROC AUC of 0.95, predict the friction coefficient with a MAE of 0.0254, and outperforms all the previous methods. The results show the strong abilities of machine learning methods to model complex, physical phenomena with a good accuracy. Published version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2022.103556.

Machine learning systems typically apply the same model to both easy and tough cases. This is in stark contrast with humans, who tend to evoke either fast (instinctive) or slow (analytical) thinking depending on the problem difficulty, a property called the dual-process theory of mind. We present FLOWGEN, a graph-generation model inspired by the dual-process theory of mind that generates large graphs incrementally. Depending on the difficulty of completing the graph at the current step, graph generation is routed to either a fast (weaker) or a slow (stronger) model. These modules have identical architectures, but vary in the number of parameters and consequently differ in generative power. Experiments on real-world graphs show that ours can successfully generate graphs similar to those generated by a single large model, while being up to 2x faster.

The literature for fairness-aware machine learning knows a plethora of different fairness notions. It is however wellknown, that it is impossible to satisfy all of them, as certain notions contradict each other. In this paper, we take a closer look at academic performance prediction (APP) systems and try to distil which fairness notions suit this task most. For this, we scan recent literature proposing guidelines as to which fairness notion to use and apply these guidelines onto APP. Our findings suggest equalised odds as most suitable notion for APP, based on APP's WYSIWYG worldview as well as potential long-term improvements for the population.

I had no success using regression, so first I'll use classification to determine which samples are zero, then do regression on the rest. The regression approach works quite well when there aren't a ton of zero values in y) Is this a valid approach to improving the ROC score? I can't see any reason why not but ML is not my specialty and I might be missing something. If it is valid, do I have to watch out for any class imbalances in the resulting high confidence test set when computing the ROC score?