Performance Analysis
Distributed Estimation and Inference for Semi-parametric Binary Response Models
Chen, Xi, Jing, Wenbo, Liu, Weidong, Zhang, Yichen
The development of modern technology has enabled data collection of unprecedented size, which poses new challenges to many statistical estimation and inference problems. This paper studies the maximum score estimator of a semi-parametric binary choice model under a distributed computing environment without pre-specifying the noise distribution. An intuitive divide-and-conquer estimator is computationally expensive and restricted by a non-regular constraint on the number of machines, due to the highly non-smooth nature of the objective function. We propose (1) a one-shot divide-and-conquer estimator after smoothing the objective to relax the constraint, and (2) a multi-round estimator to completely remove the constraint via iterative smoothing. We specify an adaptive choice of kernel smoother with a sequentially shrinking bandwidth to achieve the superlinear improvement of the optimization error over the multiple iterations. The improved statistical accuracy per iteration is derived, and a quadratic convergence up to the optimal statistical error rate is established. We further provide two generalizations to handle the heterogeneity of datasets with covariate shift and high-dimensional problems where the parameter of interest is sparse.
A Survey on Preserving Fairness Guarantees in Changing Environments
Barrainkua, Ainhize, Gordaliza, Paula, Lozano, Jose A., Quadrianto, Novi
Human lives are increasingly being affected by the outcomes of automated decision-making systems and it is essential for the latter to be, not only accurate, but also fair. The literature of algorithmic fairness has grown considerably over the last decade, where most of the approaches are evaluated under the strong assumption that the train and test samples are independently and identically drawn from the same underlying distribution. However, in practice, dissimilarity between the training and deployment environments exists, which compromises the performance of the decision-making algorithm as well as its fairness guarantees in the deployment data. There is an emergent research line that studies how to preserve fairness guarantees when the data generating processes differ between the source (train) and target (test) domains, which is growing remarkably. With this survey, we aim to provide a wide and unifying overview on the topic. For such purpose, we propose a taxonomy of the existing approaches for fair classification under distribution shift, highlight benchmarking alternatives, point out the relation with other similar research fields and eventually, identify future venues of research.
Robust Deep Learning for Autonomous Driving
The last decade's research in artificial intelligence had a significant impact on the advance of autonomous driving. Yet, safety remains a major concern when it comes to deploying such systems in high-risk environments. The objective of this thesis is to develop methodological tools which provide reliable uncertainty estimates for deep neural networks. First, we introduce a new criterion to reliably estimate model confidence: the true class probability (TCP). We show that TCP offers better properties for failure prediction than current uncertainty measures. Since the true class is by essence unknown at test time, we propose to learn TCP criterion from data with an auxiliary model, introducing a specific learning scheme adapted to this context. The relevance of the proposed approach is validated on image classification and semantic segmentation datasets. Then, we extend our learned confidence approach to the task of domain adaptation where it improves the selection of pseudo-labels in self-training methods. Finally, we tackle the challenge of jointly detecting misclassification and out-of-distributions samples by introducing a new uncertainty measure based on evidential models and defined on the simplex.
Assessing Performance and Fairness Metrics in Face Recognition - Bootstrap Methods
Conti, Jean-Rรฉmy, Clรฉmenรงon, Stรฉphan
The ROC curve is the major tool for assessing not only the performance but also the fairness properties of a similarity scoring function in Face Recognition. In order to draw reliable conclusions based on empirical ROC analysis, evaluating accurately the uncertainty related to statistical versions of the ROC curves of interest is necessary. For this purpose, we explain in this paper that, because the True/False Acceptance Rates are of the form of U-statistics in the case of similarity scoring, the naive bootstrap approach is not valid here and that a dedicated recentering technique must be used instead. This is illustrated on real data of face images, when applied to several ROC-based metrics such as popular fairness metrics.
Uncertainty-aware Efficient Subgraph Isomorphism using Graph Topology
Subgraph isomorphism or subgraph matching is generally considered as an NP-complete problem, made more complex in practical applications where the edge weights take real values and are subject to measurement noise and possible anomalies. To the best of our knowledge, almost all subgraph matching methods utilize node labels to perform node-node matching. In the absence of such labels (in applications such as image matching and map matching among others), these subgraph matching methods do not work. We propose a method for identifying the node correspondence between a subgraph and a full graph in the inexact case without node labels in two steps - (a) extract the minimal unique topology preserving subset from the subgraph and find its feasible matching in the full graph, and (b) implement a consensus-based algorithm to expand the matched node set by pairing unique paths based on boundary commutativity. Going beyond the existing subgraph matching approaches, the proposed method is shown to have realistically sub-linear computational efficiency, robustness to random measurement noise, and good statistical properties. Our method is also readily applicable to the exact matching case without loss of generality. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a case study is performed on the Erdos-Renyi random graphs and the image-based affine covariant features dataset respectively.
Predictive discarding for sustainable Industry 5.0
The computer chip shortage has prompted Dr Geert van Kollenburg and his colleagues at Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands, to find data-driven methods to optimise chip manufacturing processes. As part of the MadeIn4 project, they have developed a predictive discarding framework in which quality predictions from artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are used to decide on whether to discard an unfinished product. This approach can improve both the profitability and sustainability of manufacturing processes. In line with Industry 5.0 goals, predictive discarding offers a way for humans and AI to work together to achieve sustainable manufacturing. Our digital society relies on computer chips, but these chips are currently in short supply.
Elliptically-Contoured Tensor-variate Distributions with Application to Improved Image Learning
Llosa-Vite, Carlos, Maitra, Ranjan
Statistical analysis of tensor-valued data has largely used the tensor-variate normal (TVN) distribution that may be inadequate when data comes from distributions with heavier or lighter tails. We study a general family of elliptically contoured (EC) tensor-variate distributions and derive its characterizations, moments, marginal and conditional distributions, and the EC Wishart distribution. We describe procedures for maximum likelihood estimation from data that are (1) uncorrelated draws from an EC distribution, (2) from a scale mixture of the TVN distribution, and (3) from an underlying but unknown EC distribution, where we extend Tyler's robust estimator. A detailed simulation study highlights the benefits of choosing an EC distribution over the TVN for heavier-tailed data. We develop tensor-variate classification rules using discriminant analysis and EC errors and show that they better predict cats and dogs from images in the Animal Faces-HQ dataset than the TVN-based rules. A novel tensor-on-tensor regression and tensor-variate analysis of variance (TANOVA) framework under EC errors is also demonstrated to better characterize gender, age and ethnic origin than the usual TVN-based TANOVA in the celebrated Labeled Faces of the Wild dataset.
Early Diagnosis of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease from Chest X-Rays using Transfer Learning and Fusion Strategies
Wang, Ryan, Chen, Li-Ching, Moukheiber, Lama, Moukheiber, Mira, Moukheiber, Dana, Zaiman, Zach, Moukheiber, Sulaiman, Litchman, Tess, Seastedt, Kenneth, Trivedi, Hari, Steinberg, Rebecca, Kuo, Po-Chih, Gichoya, Judy, Celi, Leo Anthony
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the most common chronic illnesses in the world and the third leading cause of mortality worldwide. It is often underdiagnosed or not diagnosed until later in the disease course. Spirometry tests are the gold standard for diagnosing COPD but can be difficult to obtain, especially in resource-poor countries. Chest X-rays (CXRs), however, are readily available and may serve as a screening tool to identify patients with COPD who should undergo further testing. Currently, no research applies deep learning (DL) algorithms that use large multi-site and multi-modal data to detect COPD patients and evaluate fairness across demographic groups. We use three CXR datasets in our study, CheXpert to pre-train models, MIMIC-CXR to develop, and Emory-CXR to validate our models. The CXRs from patients in the early stage of COPD and not on mechanical ventilation are selected for model training and validation. We visualize the Grad-CAM heatmaps of the true positive cases on the base model for both MIMIC-CXR and Emory-CXR test datasets. We further propose two fusion schemes, (1) model-level fusion, including bagging and stacking methods using MIMIC-CXR, and (2) data-level fusion, including multi-site data using MIMIC-CXR and Emory-CXR, and multi-modal using MIMIC-CXRs and MIMIC-IV EHR, to improve the overall model performance. Fairness analysis is performed to evaluate if the fusion schemes have a discrepancy in the performance among different demographic groups. The results demonstrate that DL models can detect COPD using CXRs, which can facilitate early screening, especially in low-resource regions where CXRs are more accessible than spirometry. The multi-site data fusion scheme could improve the model generalizability on the Emory-CXR test data. Further studies on using CXR or other modalities to predict COPD ought to be in future work.
Discovering Long-period Exoplanets using Deep Learning with Citizen Science Labels
Malik, Shreshth A., Eisner, Nora L., Lintott, Chris J., Gal, Yarin
Automated planetary transit detection has become vital to prioritize candidates for expert analysis given the scale of modern telescopic surveys. While current methods for short-period exoplanet detection work effectively due to periodicity in the light curves, there lacks a robust approach for detecting single-transit events. However, volunteer-labelled transits recently collected by the Planet Hunters TESS (PHT) project now provide an unprecedented opportunity to investigate a data-driven approach to long-period exoplanet detection. In this work, we train a 1-D convolutional neural network to classify planetary transits using PHT volunteer scores as training data. We find using volunteer scores significantly improves performance over synthetic data, and enables the recovery of known planets at a precision and rate matching that of the volunteers. Importantly, the model also recovers transits found by volunteers but missed by current automated methods.
Bayesian Reconstruction and Differential Testing of Excised mRNA
Hosseini, Marjan, McConnell, Devin, Aguiar, Derek
Characterizing the differential excision of mRNA is critical for understanding the functional complexity of a cell or tissue, from normal developmental processes to disease pathogenesis. Most transcript reconstruction methods infer full-length transcripts from high-throughput sequencing data. However, this is a challenging task due to incomplete annotations and the differential expression of transcripts across cell-types, tissues, and experimental conditions. Several recent methods circumvent these difficulties by considering local splicing events, but these methods lose transcript-level splicing information and may conflate transcripts. We develop the first probabilistic model that reconciles the transcript and local splicing perspectives. First, we formalize the sequence of mRNA excisions (SME) reconstruction problem, which aims to assemble variable-length sequences of mRNA excisions from RNA-sequencing data. We then present a novel hierarchical Bayesian admixture model for the Reconstruction of Excised mRNA (BREM). BREM interpolates between local splicing events and full-length transcripts and thus focuses only on SMEs that have high posterior probability. We develop posterior inference algorithms based on Gibbs sampling and local search of independent sets and characterize differential SME usage using generalized linear models based on converged BREM model parameters. We show that BREM achieves higher F1 score for reconstruction tasks and improved accuracy and sensitivity in differential splicing when compared with four state-of-the-art transcript and local splicing methods on simulated data. Lastly, we evaluate BREM on both bulk and scRNA sequencing data based on transcript reconstruction, novelty of transcripts produced, model sensitivity to hyperparameters, and a functional analysis of differentially expressed SMEs, demonstrating that BREM captures relevant biological signal.