With the rapid development of electricity markets, price volatility has significantly increased, making accurate forecasting crucial for power system operations and market decisions. Traditional linear models cannot capture the complex nonlinear characteristics of electricity pricing, necessitating advanced machine learning approaches. This study compares eight machine learning models using Spanish electricity market data, integrating consumption, generation, and meteorological variables. The models evaluated include linear regression, ridge regression, decision tree, KNN, random forest, gradient boosting, SVR, and XGBoost. Results show that KNN achieves the best performance with R^2 of 0.865, MAE of 3.556, and RMSE of 5.240. To enhance interpretability, LIME analysis reveals that meteorological factors and supply-demand indicators significantly influence price fluctuations through nonlinear relationships. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of machine learning models in electricity price forecasting while improving decision transparency through interpretability analysis.

A robot's instantaneous sensory observations do not always reveal task-relevant state information. Under such partial observability, optimal behavior typically involves explicitly acting to gain the missing information. Today's standard robot learning techniques struggle to produce such active perception behaviors. We propose a simple real-world robot learning recipe to efficiently train active perception policies. Our approach, asymmetric advantage weighted regression (AAWR), exploits access to "privileged" extra sensors at training time. The privileged sensors enable training high-quality privileged value functions that aid in estimating the advantage of the target policy. Bootstrapping from a small number of potentially suboptimal demonstrations and an easy-to-obtain coarse policy initialization, AAWR quickly acquires active perception behaviors and boosts task performance. In evaluations on 8 manipulation tasks on 3 robots spanning varying degrees of partial observability, AAWR synthesizes reliable active perception behaviors that outperform all prior approaches. When initialized with a "generalist" robot policy that struggles with active perception tasks, AAWR efficiently generates information-gathering behaviors that allow it to operate under severe partial observability for manipulation tasks. Website: https://penn-pal-lab.github.io/aawr/

This research designs a unified architecture of CTR prediction benchmark (Bench-CTR) platform that offers flexible interfaces with datasets and components of a wide range of CTR prediction models. Moreover, we construct a comprehensive system of evaluation protocols encompassing real-world and synthetic datasets, a taxonomy of metrics, standardized procedures and experimental guidelines for calibrating the performance of CTR prediction models. Furthermore, we implement the proposed benchmark platform and conduct a comparative study to evaluate a wide range of state-of-the-art models from traditional multivariate statistical to modern large language model (LLM)-based approaches on three public datasets and two synthetic datasets. Experimental results reveal that, (1) high-order models largely outperform low-order models, though such advantage varies in terms of metrics and on different datasets; (2) LLM-based models demonstrate a remarkable data efficiency, i.e., achieving the comparable performance to other models while using only 2% of the training data; (3) the performance of CTR prediction models has achieved significant improvements from 2015 to 2016, then reached a stage with slow progress, which is consistent across various datasets. This benchmark is expected to facilitate model development and evaluation and enhance practitioners' understanding of the underlying mechanisms of models in the area of CTR prediction. Code is available at https://github.com/NuriaNinja/Bench-CTR.

Conversion and conversion rate (CVR) prediction play a critical role in efficient advertising decision-making. In past decades, although researchers have developed plenty of models for CVR prediction, the methodological evolution and relationships between different techniques have been precluded. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive literature review on CVR prediction in online advertising, and classify state-of-the-art CVR prediction models into six categories with respect to the underlying techniques and elaborate on connections between these techniques. For each category of models, we present the framework of underlying techniques, their advantages and disadvantages, and discuss how they are utilized for CVR prediction. Moreover, we summarize the performance of various CVR prediction models on public and proprietary datasets. Finally, we identify research trends, major challenges, and promising future directions. We observe that results of performance evaluation reported in prior studies are not unanimous; semantics-enriched, attribution-enhanced, debiased CVR prediction and jointly modeling CTR and CVR prediction would be promising directions to explore in the future. This review is expected to provide valuable references and insights for future researchers and practitioners in this area.

Predictive maintenance in manufacturing environments presents a challenging optimization problem characterized by extreme cost asymmetry, where missed failures incur costs roughly fifty times higher than false alarms. Conventional machine learning approaches typically optimize statistical accuracy metrics that do not reflect this operational reality and cannot reliably distinguish causal relationships from spurious correlations. This study evaluates eight predictive models, ranging from baseline statistical approaches to formal causal inference methods, on a dataset of 10,000 CNC machines with a 3.3 percent failure prevalence. The formal causal inference model (L5) achieved estimated annual cost savings of 1.16 million USD (a 70.2 percent reduction), outperforming the best correlation-based decision tree model (L3) by approximately 80,000 USD per year. The causal model matched the highest observed recall (87.9 percent) while reducing false alarms by 97 percent (from 165 to 5) and attained a precision of 92.1 percent, with a train-test performance gap of only 2.6 percentage points. These results indicate that causal AI methods, when combined with domain knowledge, can yield superior financial outcomes and more interpretable predictions compared to correlation-based approaches in predictive maintenance applications.

Indirect prompt injection attacks (IPIAs), where large language models (LLMs) follow malicious instructions hidden in input data, pose a critical threat to LLMpowered agents. In this paper, we present IntentGuard, a general defense framework based on instruction-following intent analysis. The key insight of Intent-Guard is that the decisive factor in IPIAs is not the presence of malicious text, but whether the LLM intends to follow instructions from untrusted data. Building on this insight, IntentGuard leverages an instruction-following intent analyzer (IIA) to identify which parts of the input prompt the model recognizes as actionable instructions, and then flag or neutralize any overlaps with untrusted data segments. To instantiate the framework, we develop an IIA that uses three "thinking intervention" strategies to elicit a structured list of intended instructions from reasoning-enabled LLMs. These techniques include start-of-thinking prefilling, end-of-thinking refinement, and adversarial in-context demonstration. We evaluate IntentGuard on two agentic benchmarks (AgentDojo and Mind2Web) using two reasoning-enabled LLMs (Qwen-3-32B and gpt-oss-20B). Results demonstrate that IntentGuard achieves (1) no utility degradation in all but one setting and (2) strong robustness against adaptive prompt injection attacks (e.g., reducing attack success rates from 100% to 8.5% in a Mind2Web scenario). Indirect prompt injection attacks (IPIAs) (Greshake et al., 2023), where large language models (LLMs) follow malicious instructions hidden in the input data, have emerged as a top security concern for LLM-powered agents. Although many defenses have been proposed, each faces fundamental limitations. Finetuning-based defenses (Chen et al., 2024; 2025b) are costly and lack interpretability; auxiliary classifiers for IPIA detection Shi et al. (2025); Hung et al. (2024) often fail to generalize and are vulnerable to adaptive attacks; system-level rule enforcement Debenedetti et al. (2025) can impact agent utility while offering little robustness against attacks that do not alter control and data flows (e.g., injecting misinformation or phishing links into an email summary). In this paper, we approach the prompt injection problem from a new perspective: instruction-following intent analysis. For an LLM to effectively follow instructions, it must have an internal mechanism to decide which parts of a prompt it recognizes as actionable instructions.

Transformer models have significantly advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP), demonstrating strong performance in English. However, their effectiveness in Arabic, particularly for Named Entity Recognition (NER), remains limited, even with larger pre-trained models. This performance gap stems from multiple factors, including tokenisation, dataset quality, and annotation inconsistencies. Existing studies often analyze these issues in isolation, failing to capture their joint effect on system behaviour and performance. We introduce DeformAr (Debugging and Evaluation Framework for Transformer-based NER Systems), a novel framework designed to investigate and explain the performance discrepancy between Arabic and English NER systems. DeformAr integrates a data extraction library and an interactive dashboard, supporting two modes of evaluation: cross-component analysis and behavioural analysis. The framework divides each language into dataset and model components to examine their interactions. The analysis proceeds in two stages. First, cross-component analysis provides systematic diagnostic measures across data and model subcomponents, addressing the "what," "how," and "why" behind observed discrepancies. The second stage applies behavioural analysis by combining interpretability techniques with token-level metrics, interactive visualisations, and representation space analysis. These stages enable a component-aware diagnostic process that detects model behaviours and explains them by linking them to underlying representational patterns and data factors. DeformAr is the first Arabic-specific, component-based interpretability tool, offering a crucial resource for advancing model analysis in under-resourced languages.

Watermarking acts as a critical safeguard in text generated by Large Language Models (LLMs). By embedding identifiable signals into model outputs, watermarking enables reliable attribution and enhances the security of machine-generated content. Existing approaches typically embed signals by manipulating token generation probabilities. Despite their effectiveness, these methods inherently face a trade-off between detectability and text quality: the signal strength and randomness required for robust watermarking tend to degrade the performance of downstream tasks. In this paper, we design a novel embedding scheme that controls seed pools to facilitate diverse parallel generation of watermarked text. Based on that scheme, we propose WaterSearch, a sentence-level, search-based watermarking framework adaptable to a wide range of existing methods. WaterSearch enhances text quality by jointly optimizing two key aspects: 1) distribution fidelity and 2) watermark signal characteristics. Furthermore, WaterSearch is complemented by a sentence-level detection method with strong attack robustness. We evaluate our method on three popular LLMs across ten diverse tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves an average performance improvement of 51.01\% over state-of-the-art baselines at a watermark detectability strength of 95\%. In challenging scenarios such as short text generation and low-entropy output generation, our method yields performance gains of 47.78\% and 36.47\%, respectively. Moreover, under different attack senarios including insertion, synonym substitution and paraphrase attasks, WaterSearch maintains high detectability, further validating its robust anti-attack capabilities. Our code is available at \href{https://github.com/Yukang-Lin/WaterSearch}{https://github.com/Yukang-Lin/WaterSearch}.

The rapid evolution of end-to-end AI music generation poses an escalating threat to artistic authenticity and copyright, demanding detection methods that can keep pace. While foundational, existing models like SpecTTTra falter when faced with the diverse and rapidly advancing ecosystem of new generators, exhibiting significant performance drops on out-of-distribution (OOD) content. This generalization failure highlights a critical gap: the need for more challenging benchmarks and more robust detection architectures. To address this, we first introduce Melody or Machine (MoM), a new large-scale benchmark of over 130,000 songs (6,665 hours). MoM is the most diverse dataset to date, built with a mix of open and closed-source models and a curated OOD test set designed specifically to foster the development of truly generalizable detectors. Alongside this benchmark, we introduce CLAM, a novel dual-stream detection architecture. We hypothesize that subtle, machine-induced inconsistencies between vocal and instrumental elements, often imperceptible in a mixed signal, offer a powerful tell-tale sign of synthesis. CLAM is designed to test this hypothesis by employing two distinct pre-trained audio encoders (MERT and Wave2Vec2) to create parallel representations of the audio. These representations are fused by a learnable cross-aggregation module that models their inter-dependencies. The model is trained with a dual-loss objective: a standard binary cross-entropy loss for classification, complemented by a contrastive triplet loss which trains the model to distinguish between coherent and artificially mismatched stream pairings, enhancing its sensitivity to synthetic artifacts without presuming a simple feature alignment. CLAM establishes a new state-of-the-art in synthetic music forensics. It achieves an F1 score of 0.925 on our challenging MoM benchmark.

This work presents the development and evaluation of an NLP-enabled probabilistic classifier designed to estimate the probability of technical and regulatory success (pTRS) for clinical trials in the field of neuroscience. While pharmaceutical R&D is plagued by high attrition rates and enormous costs, particularly within neuroscience, where success rates are below 10%, timely identification of promising programs can streamline resource allocation and reduce financial risk. Leveraging data from the ClinicalTrials.gov database and success labels from the recently developed Clinical Trial Outcome dataset, the classifier extracts text-based clinical trial features using statistical NLP techniques. These features were integrated into several non-LLM frameworks (logistic regression, gradient boosting, and random forest) to generate calibrated probability scores. Model performance was assessed on a retrospective dataset of 101,145 completed clinical trials spanning 1976-2024, achieving an overall ROC-AUC of 0.64. An LLM-based predictive model was then built using BioBERT, a domain-specific language representation encoder. The BioBERT-based model achieved an overall ROC-AUC of 0.74 and a Brier Score of 0.185, indicating its predictions had, on average, 40% less squared error than would be observed using industry benchmarks. The BioBERT-based model also made trial outcome predictions that were superior to benchmark values 70% of the time overall. By integrating NLP-driven insights into drug development decision-making, this work aims to enhance strategic planning and optimize investment allocation in neuroscience programs.