Performance Analysis
ProductGraphSleepNet: Sleep Staging using Product Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning with Attentive Temporal Aggregation
Einizade, Aref, Nasiri, Samaneh, Sardouie, Sepideh Hajipour, Clifford, Gari
The classification of sleep stages plays a crucial role in understanding and diagnosing sleep pathophysiology. Sleep stage scoring relies heavily on visual inspection by an expert that is time consuming and subjective procedure. Recently, deep learning neural network approaches have been leveraged to develop a generalized automated sleep staging and account for shifts in distributions that may be caused by inherent inter/intra-subject variability, heterogeneity across datasets, and different recording environments. However, these networks ignore the connections among brain regions, and disregard the sequential connections between temporally adjacent sleep epochs. To address these issues, this work proposes an adaptive product graph learning-based graph convolutional network, named ProductGraphSleepNet, for learning joint spatio-temporal graphs along with a bidirectional gated recurrent unit and a modified graph attention network to capture the attentive dynamics of sleep stage transitions. Evaluation on two public databases: the Montreal Archive of Sleep Studies (MASS) SS3; and the SleepEDF, which contain full night polysomnography recordings of 62 and 20 healthy subjects, respectively, demonstrates performance comparable to the state-of-the-art (Accuracy: 0.867;0.838, F1-score: 0.818;0.774 and Kappa: 0.802;0.775, on each database respectively). More importantly, the proposed network makes it possible for clinicians to comprehend and interpret the learned connectivity graphs for sleep stages.
Activity-Based Recommendations for Demand Response in Smart Sustainable Buildings
Zharova, Alona, Löschmann, Laura
The energy consumption of private households amounts to approximately 30% of the total global energy consumption, causing a large share of the CO2 emissions through energy production. An intelligent demand response via load shifting increases the energy efficiency of residential buildings by nudging residents to change their energy consumption behavior. This paper introduces an activity prediction-based framework for the utility-based context-aware multi-agent recommendation system that generates an activity shifting schedule for a 24-hour time horizon to either focus on CO2 emissions or energy cost savings. In particular, we design and implement an Activity Agent that uses hourly energy consumption data. It does not require further sensorial data or activity labels which reduces implementation costs and the need for extensive user input. Moreover, the system enhances the utility option of saving energy costs by saving CO2 emissions and provides the possibility to focus on both dimensions. The empirical results show that while setting the focus on CO2 emissions savings, the system provides an average of 12% of emissions savings and 7% of cost savings. When focusing on energy cost savings, 20% of energy costs and 6% of emissions savings are possible for the studied households in case of accepting all recommendations. Recommending an activity schedule, the system uses the same terms residents describe their domestic life. Therefore, recommendations can be more easily integrated into daily life supporting the acceptance of the system in a long-term perspective.
Explainable Machine Learning for Breakdown Prediction in High Gradient RF Cavities
Obermair, Christoph, Cartier-Michaud, Thomas, Apollonio, Andrea, Millar, William, Felsberger, Lukas, Fischl, Lorenz, Bovbjerg, Holger Severin, Wollmann, Daniel, Wuensch, Walter, Catalan-Lasheras, Nuria, Boronat, Marçà, Pernkopf, Franz, Burt, Graeme
The occurrence of vacuum arcs or radio frequency (rf) breakdowns is one of the most prevalent factors limiting the high-gradient performance of normal conducting rf cavities in particle accelerators. In this paper, we search for the existence of previously unrecognized features related to the incidence of rf breakdowns by applying a machine learning strategy to high-gradient cavity data from CERN's test stand for the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC). By interpreting the parameters of the learned models with explainable artificial intelligence (AI), we reverse-engineer physical properties for deriving fast, reliable, and simple rule-based models. Based on 6 months of historical data and dedicated experiments, our models show fractions of data with a high influence on the occurrence of breakdowns. Specifically, it is shown that the field emitted current following an initial breakdown is closely related to the probability of another breakdown occurring shortly thereafter. Results also indicate that the cavity pressure should be monitored with increased temporal resolution in future experiments, to further explore the vacuum activity associated with breakdowns.
Generating and Weighting Semantically Consistent Sample Pairs for Ultrasound Contrastive Learning
Chen, Yixiong, Zhang, Chunhui, Ding, Chris H. Q., Liu, Li
Well-annotated medical datasets enable deep neural networks (DNNs) to gain strong power in extracting lesion-related features. Building such large and well-designed medical datasets is costly due to the need for high-level expertise. Model pre-training based on ImageNet is a common practice to gain better generalization when the data amount is limited. However, it suffers from the domain gap between natural and medical images. In this work, we pre-train DNNs on ultrasound (US) domains instead of ImageNet to reduce the domain gap in medical US applications. To learn US image representations based on unlabeled US videos, we propose a novel meta-learning-based contrastive learning method, namely Meta Ultrasound Contrastive Learning (Meta-USCL). To tackle the key challenge of obtaining semantically consistent sample pairs for contrastive learning, we present a positive pair generation module along with an automatic sample weighting module based on meta-learning. Experimental results on multiple computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) problems, including pneumonia detection, breast cancer classification, and breast tumor segmentation, show that the proposed self-supervised method reaches state-of-the-art (SOTA). The codes are available at https://github.com/Schuture/Meta-USCL.
Localized Contrastive Learning on Graphs
Zhang, Hengrui, Wu, Qitian, Wang, Yu, Zhang, Shaofeng, Yan, Junchi, Yu, Philip S.
Contrastive learning methods based on InfoNCE loss are popular in node representation learning tasks on graph-structured data. However, its reliance on data augmentation and its quadratic computational complexity might lead to inconsistency and inefficiency problems. To mitigate these limitations, in this paper, we introduce a simple yet effective contrastive model named Localized Graph Contrastive Learning (Local-GCL in short). Local-GCL consists of two key designs: 1) We fabricate the positive examples for each node directly using its first-order neighbors, which frees our method from the reliance on carefully-designed graph augmentations; 2) To improve the efficiency of contrastive learning on graphs, we devise a kernelized contrastive loss, which could be approximately computed in linear time and space complexity with respect to the graph size. We provide theoretical analysis to justify the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed methods. Experiments on various datasets with different scales and properties demonstrate that in spite of its simplicity, Local-GCL achieves quite competitive performance in self-supervised node representation learning tasks on graphs with various scales and properties.
Fallen Angel Bonds Investment and Bankruptcy Predictions Using Manual Models and Automated Machine Learning
Mateika, Harrison, Jia, Juannan, Lillard, Linda, Cronbaugh, Noah, Shin, Will
The primary aim of this research was to find a model that best predicts which fallen angel bonds would either potentially rise up back to investment grade bonds and which ones would fall into bankruptcy. To implement the solution, we thought that the ideal method would be to create an optimal machine learning model that could predict bankruptcies. Among the many machine learning models out there we decided to pick four classification methods: logistic regression, KNN, SVM, and NN. We also utilized an automated methods of Google Cloud's machine learning. The results of our model comparisons showed that the models did not predict bankruptcies very well on the original data set with the exception of Google Cloud's machine learning having a high precision score. However, our over-sampled and feature selection data set did perform very well. This could likely be due to the model being over-fitted to match the narrative of the over-sampled data (as in, it does not accurately predict data outside of this data set quite well). Therefore, we were not able to create a model that we are confident that would predict bankruptcies. However, we were able to find value out of this project in two key ways. The first is that Google Cloud's machine learning model in every metric and in every data set either outperformed or performed on par with the other models. The second is that we found that utilizing feature selection did not reduce predictive power that much. This means that we can reduce the amount of data to collect for future experimentation regarding predicting bankruptcies.
Simulation of Attacker Defender Interaction in a Noisy Security Game
Galinkin, Erick, Pountourakis, Emmanouil, Carter, John, Mancoridis, Spiros
In the cybersecurity setting, defenders are often at the mercy of their detection technologies and subject to the information and experiences that individual analysts have. In order to give defenders an advantage, it is important to understand an attacker's motivation and their likely next best action. As a first step in modeling this behavior, we introduce a security game framework that simulates interplay between attackers and defenders in a noisy environment, focusing on the factors that drive decision making for attackers and defenders in the variants of the game with full knowledge and observability, knowledge of the parameters but no observability of the state (``partial knowledge''), and zero knowledge or observability (``zero knowledge''). We demonstrate the importance of making the right assumptions about attackers, given significant differences in outcomes. Furthermore, there is a measurable trade-off between false-positives and true-positives in terms of attacker outcomes, suggesting that a more false-positive prone environment may be acceptable under conditions where true-positives are also higher.
A probabilistic autoencoder for causal discovery
The paper addresses the problem of finding the causal direction between two associated variables. The proposed solution is to build an autoencoder of their joint distribution and to maximize its estimation capacity relative to both the marginal distributions. It is shown that the resulting two capacities cannot, in general, be equal. This leads to a new criterion for causal discovery: the higher capacity is consistent with the unconstrained choice of a distribution representing the cause while the lower capacity reflects the constraints imposed by the mechanism on the distribution of the effect. Estimation capacity is defined as the ability of the auto-encoder to represent arbitrary datasets. A regularization term forces it to decide which one of the variables to model in a more generic way i.e., while maintaining higher model capacity. The causal direction is revealed by the constraints encountered while encoding the data instead of being measured as a property of the data itself. The idea is implemented and tested using a restricted Boltzmann machine.
Structure of Classifier Boundaries: Case Study for a Naive Bayes Classifier
Karr, Alan F., Bowen, Zac, Porter, Adam A.
Whether based on models, training data or a combination, classifiers place (possibly complex) input data into one of a relatively small number of output categories. In this paper, we study the structure of the boundary--those points for which a neighbor is classified differently--in the context of an input space that is a graph, so that there is a concept of neighboring inputs, The scientific setting is a model-based naive Bayes classifier for DNA reads produced by Next Generation Sequencers. We show that the boundary is both large and complicated in structure. We create a new measure of uncertainty, called Neighbor Similarity, that compares the result for a point to the distribution of results for its neighbors. This measure not only tracks two inherent uncertainty measures for the Bayes classifier, but also can be implemented, at a computational cost, for classifiers without inherent measures of uncertainty.