The risk of bankruptcy in a publicly traded firm is of major interest to shareholders, creditors, and employees. Prior literature has investigated the predictive performance of different forecasting models, mainly the discriminant analysis with accounting information (Altman, 1968), the distance to default structural model (Bharath and Shumway, 2008), and the hazard model with accounting and market information (Shumway, 2001; Chava and Jarrow, 2004). In this paper we investigate the benefits of applying high dimensional machine learning (ML) methods to bankruptcy prediction. We use a comprehensive sample of bankruptcies for U.S. publicly traded companies from 1969 to 2019 with financial, market, macro, and text based predictors. We study the performance of eight ML algorithms: the hazard model of Shumway (2001) and Chava and Jarrow (2004) enhanced with a penalty function (LASSO and Ridge), bagged trees (random forest and survival random forest), gradient boosted trees (XG Boost and LightGBM), and two specifications of neural networks (one shallower and one deeper).

The lack of any sender authentication mechanism in place makes CAN (Controller Area Network) vulnerable to security threats. For instance, an attacker can impersonate an ECU (Electronic Control Unit) on the bus and send spoofed messages unobtrusively with the identifier of the impersonated ECU. To address the insecure nature of the system, this thesis demonstrates a sender authentication technique that uses power consumption measurements of the electronic control units (ECUs) and a classification model to determine the transmitting states of the ECUs. The method's evaluation in real-world settings shows that the technique applies in a broad range of operating conditions and achieves good accuracy. A key challenge of machine learning-based security controls is the potential of false positives. A false-positive alert may induce panic in operators, lead to incorrect reactions, and in the long run cause alarm fatigue. For reliable decision-making in such a circumstance, knowing the cause for unusual model behavior is essential. But, the black-box nature of these models makes them uninterpretable. Therefore, another contribution of this thesis explores explanation techniques for inputs of type image and time series that (1) assign weights to individual inputs based on their sensitivity toward the target class, (2) and quantify the variations in the explanation by reconstructing the sensitive regions of the inputs using a generative model. In summary, this thesis (https://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/handle/10012/18134) presents methods for addressing the security and interpretability in automotive systems, which can also be applied in other settings where safe, transparent, and reliable decision-making is crucial.

The issue of left before treatment complete (LBTC) patients is common in emergency departments (EDs). This issue represents a medico-legal risk and may cause a revenue loss. Thus, understanding the factors that cause patients to leave before treatment is complete is vital to mitigate and potentially eliminate these adverse effects. This paper proposes a framework for studying the factors that affect LBTC outcomes in EDs. The framework integrates machine learning, metaheuristic optimization, and model interpretation techniques. Metaheuristic optimization is used for hyperparameter optimization--one of the main challenges of machine learning model development. Three metaheuristic optimization algorithms are employed for optimizing the parameters of extreme gradient boosting (XGB), which are simulated annealing (SA), adaptive simulated annealing (ASA), and adaptive tabu simulated annealing (ATSA). The optimized XGB models are used to predict the LBTC outcomes for the patients under treatment in ED. The designed algorithms are trained and tested using four data groups resulting from the feature selection phase. The model with the best predictive performance is interpreted using SHaply Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The findings show that ATSA-XGB outperformed other mode configurations with an accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score of 86.61%, 87.50%, 85.71%, 87.51%, and 86.60%, respectively. The degree and the direction of effects of each feature were determined and explained using the SHAP method.

Non-target corporations Kairos and Amazon have overall error rates of 6.60% and 8.66%, respectively. These are the worst current performances of the companies analyzed in the follow-up audit. Nonetheless, when comparing to the previous May 2017 performance of target corporations, the Kairos and Amazon error rates are lower than the former error rates of IBM (12.1%) and Face (9.9%) and only slightly higher than Microsoft's performance (6.2%) from the initial study.

Biometric data privacy is becoming a major concern for many organizations in the age of big data, particularly in the ICT sector, because it may be easily exploited in apps. Most apps utilize biometrics by accessing common application programming interfaces (APIs); hence, we aim to categorize their usage. The categorization based on behavior may be closely correlated with the sensitive processing of a user's biometric data, hence highlighting crucial biometric data privacy assessment concerns. We propose PABAU, Privacy Analysis of Biometric API Usage. PABAU learns semantic features of methods in biometric APIs and uses them to detect and categorize the usage of biometric API implementation in the software according to their privacy-related behaviors. This technique bridges the communication and background knowledge gap between technical and non-technical individuals in organizations by providing an automated method for both parties to acquire a rapid understanding of the essential behaviors of biometric API in apps, as well as future support to data protection officers (DPO) with legal documentation, such as conducting a Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA).

Novel plant communities reshape landscapes and pose challenges for land cover classification and mapping that can constrain research and stewardship efforts. In the US Northeast, emergence of low-statured woody vegetation, or shrublands, instead of secondary forests in post-agricultural landscapes is well-documented by field studies, but poorly understood from a landscape perspective, which limits the ability to systematically study and manage these lands. To address gaps in classification/mapping of low-statured cover types where they have been historically rare, we developed models to predict shrubland distributions at 30m resolution across New York State (NYS), using a stacked ensemble combining a random forest, gradient boosting machine, and artificial neural network to integrate remote sensing of structural (airborne LIDAR) and optical (satellite imagery) properties of vegetation cover. We first classified a 1m canopy height model (CHM), derived from a patchwork of available LIDAR coverages, to define shrubland presence/absence. Next, these non-contiguous maps were used to train a model ensemble based on temporally-segmented imagery to predict shrubland probability for the entire study landscape (NYS). Approximately 2.5% of the CHM coverage area was classified as shrubland. Models using Landsat predictors trained on the classified CHM were effective at identifying shrubland (test set AUC=0.893, real-world AUC=0.904), in discriminating between shrub/young forest and other cover classes, and produced qualitatively sensible maps, even when extending beyond the original training data. Our results suggest that incorporation of airborne LiDAR, even from a discontinuous patchwork of coverages, can improve land cover classification of historically rare but increasingly prevalent shrubland habitats across broader areas.

Active learning as a paradigm in deep learning is especially important in applications involving intricate perception tasks such as object detection where labels are difficult and expensive to acquire. Development of active learning methods in such fields is highly computationally expensive and time consuming which obstructs the progression of research and leads to a lack of comparability between methods. In this work, we propose and investigate a sandbox setup for rapid development and transparent evaluation of active learning in deep object detection. Our experiments with commonly used configurations of datasets and detection architectures found in the literature show that results obtained in our sandbox environment are representative of results on standard configurations. The total compute time to obtain results and assess the learning behavior can thereby be reduced by factors of up to 14 when comparing with Pascal VOC and up to 32 when comparing with BDD100k. This allows for testing and evaluating data acquisition and labeling strategies in under half a day and contributes to the transparency and development speed in the field of active learning for object detection.

The core issue in semi-supervised learning (SSL) lies in how to effectively leverage unlabeled data, whereas most existing methods tend to put a great emphasis on the utilization of high-confidence samples yet seldom fully explore the usage of low-confidence samples. In this paper, we aim to utilize low-confidence samples in a novel way with our proposed mutex-based consistency regularization, namely MutexMatch. Specifically, the high-confidence samples are required to exactly predict "what it is" by conventional True-Positive Classifier, while the low-confidence samples are employed to achieve a simpler goal -- to predict with ease "what it is not" by True-Negative Classifier. In this sense, we not only mitigate the pseudo-labeling errors but also make full use of the low-confidence unlabeled data by consistency of dissimilarity degree. MutexMatch achieves superior performance on multiple benchmark datasets, i.e., CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, SVHN, STL-10, mini-ImageNet and Tiny-ImageNet. More importantly, our method further shows superiority when the amount of labeled data is scarce, e.g., 92.23% accuracy with only 20 labeled data on CIFAR-10. Our code and model weights have been released at https://github.com/NJUyued/MutexMatch4SSL.

Algorithmic stability is a concept from learning theory that expresses the degree to which changes to the input data (e.g., removal of a single data point) may affect the outputs of a regression algorithm. Knowing an algorithm's stability properties is often useful for many downstream applications -- for example, stability is known to lead to desirable generalization properties and predictive inference guarantees. However, many modern algorithms currently used in practice are too complex for a theoretical analysis of their stability properties, and thus we can only attempt to establish these properties through an empirical exploration of the algorithm's behavior on various data sets. In this work, we lay out a formal statistical framework for this kind of "black-box testing" without any assumptions on the algorithm or the data distribution and establish fundamental bounds on the ability of any black-box test to identify algorithmic stability.

The more a feature decreases the impurity, the more important the feature is. In random forests, the impurity decrease from each feature can be averaged across trees to determine the final importance of the variable.