Causal discovery between collections of time-series data can help diagnose causes of symptoms and hopefully prevent faults before they occur. However, reliable causal discovery can be very challenging, especially when the data acquisition rate varies (i.e., non-uniform data sampling), or in the presence of missing data points (e.g., sparse data sampling). To address these issues, we proposed a new system comprised of two parts, the first part fills missing data with a Gaussian Process Regression, and the second part leverages an Echo State Network, which is a type of reservoir computer (i.e., used for chaotic system modelling) for Causal discovery. We evaluate the performance of our proposed system against three other off-the-shelf causal discovery algorithms, namely, structural expectation-maximization, sub-sampled linear auto-regression absolute coefficients, and multivariate Granger Causality with vector auto-regressive using the Tennessee Eastman chemical dataset; we report on their corresponding Matthews Correlation Coefficient(MCC) and Receiver Operating Characteristic curves (ROC) and show that the proposed system outperforms existing algorithms, demonstrating the viability of our approach to discover causal relationships in a complex system with missing entries.

Recently, there have been increasing calls for computer science curricula to complement existing technical training with topics related to Fairness, Accountability, Transparency, and Ethics. In this paper, we present Value Card, an educational toolkit to inform students and practitioners of the social impacts of different machine learning models via deliberation. This paper presents an early use of our approach in a college-level computer science course. Through an in-class activity, we report empirical data for the initial effectiveness of our approach. Our results suggest that the use of the Value Cards toolkit can improve students' understanding of both the technical definitions and trade-offs of performance metrics and apply them in real-world contexts, help them recognize the significance of considering diverse social values in the development of deployment of algorithmic systems, and enable them to communicate, negotiate and synthesize the perspectives of diverse stakeholders. Our study also demonstrates a number of caveats we need to consider when using the different variants of the Value Cards toolkit. Finally, we discuss the challenges as well as future applications of our approach.

We present FOLD-SE, an efficient, explainable machine learning algorithm for classification tasks given tabular data containing numerical and categorical values. FOLD-SE generates a set of default rules-essentially a stratified normal logic program-as an (explainable) trained model. Explainability provided by FOLD-SE is scalable, meaning that regardless of the size of the dataset, the number of learned rules and learned literals stay quite small while good accuracy in classification is maintained. A model with smaller number of rules and literals is easier to understand for human beings. FOLD-SE is competitive with state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms such as XGBoost and Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP) wrt accuracy of prediction. However, unlike XGBoost and MLP, the FOLD-SE algorithm is explainable. The FOLD-SE algorithm builds upon our earlier work on developing the explainable FOLD-R++ machine learning algorithm for binary classification and inherits all of its positive features. Thus, pre-processing of the dataset, using techniques such as one-hot encoding, is not needed. Like FOLD-R++, FOLD-SE uses prefix sum to speed up computations resulting in FOLD-SE being an order of magnitude faster than XGBoost and MLP in execution speed. The FOLD-SE algorithm outperforms FOLD-R++ as well as other rule-learning algorithms such as RIPPER in efficiency, performance and scalability, especially for large datasets. A major reason for scalable explainability of FOLD-SE is the use of a literal selection heuristics based on Gini Impurity, as opposed to Information Gain used in FOLD-R++. A multi-category classification version of FOLD-SE is also presented.

After early excitement about artificial intelligence (AI) in the late 1980s and early 1990s, followed by a couple of "AI winters" -- periods of reduced funding, interest and even disillusionment -- we now again see great enthusiasm about all things related to AI and machine learning (ML). It is no wonder that AI/ML is also being considered for network security, including distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) protection. It's not that AI/ML algorithms have changed so radically -- but they have matured. In network security, like in many other fields, the abundance of data and greater-than-ever processing power makes it feasible to implement new AI/ML algorithms in silicon or in the cloud, allowing us to teach machines to be more accurate and faster than humans are. With DDoS security, the problem is distinguishing "good" from "bad" traffic and minimizing the mitigative actions to reduce the effect on "good" traffic.

A new AI-based model showed the ability to identify eyes with normal topographies at risk for developing post-LASIK ectasia. "This method increases the number of cases correctly identified as at risk and reduces the number of eyes that had been inadequately considered at risk," the authors wrote. Six features, including percent tissue altered (PTA), residual stromal bed, corneal thickness, flap thickness, central ablation depth and age, were used to engineer through machine learning 14 additional features. The different interactions between these 20 variables were tested, sampling thousands of models with diverse predictive performance. Following fivefold cross-validation, the best performing model was selected.

Abstract: We derive high-dimensional Gaussian comparison results for the standard V-fold cross-validated risk estimates. Our result combines a recent stability-based argument for the low-dimensional central limit theorem of cross-validation with the high-dimensional Gaussian comparison framework for sums of independent random variables. These results give new insights into the joint sampling distribution of cross-validated risks in the context of model comparison and tuning parameter selection, where the number of candidate models and tuning parameters can be larger than the fitting sample size. Abstract: In this article we prove that estimator stability is enough to show that leave-one-out cross validation is a sound procedure, by providing concentration bounds in a general framework. In particular, we provide concentration bounds beyond Lipschitz continuity assumptions on the loss or on the estimator.

Upward lightning (UL) has become an increasingly important threat to wind turbines as ever more of them are being installed for renewably producing electricity. The taller the wind turbine the higher the risk that the type of lightning striking the man-made structure is UL. UL can be much more destructive than downward lightning due to its long lasting initial continuous current leading to a large charge transfer within the lightning discharge process. Current standards for the risk assessment of lightning at wind turbines mainly take the summer lightning activity into account, which is inferred from LLS. Ground truth lightning current measurements reveal that less than 50% of UL might be detected by lightning location systems (LLS). This leads to a large underestimation of the proportion of LLS-non-detectable UL at wind turbines, which is the dominant lightning type in the cold season. This study aims to assess the risk of LLS-detectable and LLS-non-detectable UL at wind turbines using direct UL measurements at the Gaisberg Tower (Austria) and S\"antis Tower (Switzerland). Direct UL observations are linked to meteorological reanalysis data and joined by random forests, a powerful machine learning technique. The meteorological drivers for the non-/occurrence of LLS-detectable and LLS-non-detectable UL, respectively, are found from the random forest models trained at the towers and have large predictive skill on independent data. In a second step the results from the tower-trained models are extended to a larger study domain (Central and Northern Germany). The tower-trained models for LLS-detectable lightning is independently verified at wind turbine locations in that domain and found to reliably diagnose that type of UL. Risk maps based on case study events show that high diagnosed probabilities in the study domain coincide with actual UL events.

Online shopping stores have grown steadily over the past few years. Due to the massive growth of these businesses, the detection of fake reviews has attracted attention. Fake reviews are seriously trying to mislead customers and thereby undermine the honesty and authenticity of online shopping environments. So far, various fake review classifiers have been proposed that take into account the actual content of the review. To improve the accuracies of existing fake review classification or detection approaches, we propose to use BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representation from Transformers) model to extract word embeddings from texts (i.e. reviews). Word embeddings are obtained in various basic methods such as SVM (Support vector machine), Random Forests, Naive Bayes, and others. The confusion matrix method was also taken into account to evaluate and graphically represent the results. The results indicate that the SVM classifiers outperform the others in terms of accuracy and f1-score with an accuracy of 87.81%, which is 7.6% higher than the classifier used in the previous study [5].

Identifying suicidality including suicidal ideation, attempts, and risk factors in electronic health record data in clinical notes is difficult. A major difficulty is the lack of training samples given the small number of true positive instances among the increasingly large number of patients being screened. This paper describes a novel methodology that identifies suicidality in clinical notes by addressing this data sparsity issue through zero-shot learning. U.S. Veterans Affairs clinical notes served as data. The training dataset label was determined using diagnostic codes of suicide attempt and self-harm. A base string associated with the target label of suicidality was used to provide auxiliary information by narrowing the positive training cases to those containing the base string. A deep neural network was trained by mapping the training documents contents to a semantic space. For comparison, we trained another deep neural network using the identical training dataset labels and bag-of-words features. The zero shot learning model outperformed the baseline model in terms of AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value at multiple probability thresholds. In applying a 0.90 probability threshold, the methodology identified notes not associated with a relevant ICD 10 CM code that documented suicidality, with 94 percent accuracy. This new method can effectively identify suicidality without requiring manual annotation.

Timely and reliable detection of falls is a large and rapidly growing field of research due to the medical and financial demand of caring for a constantly growing elderly population. Within the past 2 decades, the availability of high-quality hardware (high-quality sensors and AI microchips) and software (machine learning algorithms) technologies has served as a catalyst for this research by giving developers the capabilities to develop such systems. This study developed multiple application components in order to investigate the development challenges and choices for fall detection systems, and provide materials for future research. The smart application developed using this methodology was validated by the results from fall detection modelling experiments and model mobile deployment. The best performing model overall was the ResNet152 on a standardised, and shuffled dataset with a 2s window size which achieved 92.8% AUC, 87.28% sensitivity, and 98.33% specificity. Given these results it is evident that accelerometer and ECG sensors are beneficial for fall detection, and allow for the discrimination between falls and other activities. This study leaves a significant amount of room for improvement due to weaknesses identified in the resultant dataset. These improvements include using a labelling protocol for the critical phase of a fall, increasing the number of dataset samples, improving the test subject representation, and experimenting with frequency domain preprocessing.