Performance Analysis
Sport Task: Fine Grained Action Detection and Classification of Table Tennis Strokes from Videos for MediaEval 2022
Martin, Pierre-Etienne, Calandre, Jordan, Mansencal, Boris, Benois-Pineau, Jenny, Péteri, Renaud, Mascarilla, Laurent, Morlier, Julien
Sports video analysis is a widespread research topic. Its applications are very diverse, like events detection during a match, video summary, or fine-grained movement analysis of athletes. As part of the MediaEval 2022 benchmarking initiative, this task aims at detecting and classifying subtle movements from sport videos. We focus on recordings of table tennis matches. Conducted since 2019, this task provides a classification challenge from untrimmed videos recorded under natural conditions with known temporal boundaries for each stroke. Since 2021, the task also provides a stroke detection challenge from un-annotated, untrimmed videos. This year, the training, validation, and test sets are enhanced to ensure that all strokes are represented in each dataset. The dataset is now similar to the one used in [1, 2]. This research is intended to build tools for coaches and athletes who want to further evaluate their sport performances.
Learning from many trajectories
Tu, Stephen, Frostig, Roy, Soltanolkotabi, Mahdi
We initiate a study of supervised learning from many independent sequences ("trajectories") of non-independent covariates, reflecting tasks in sequence modeling, control, and reinforcement learning. Conceptually, our multi-trajectory setup sits between two traditional settings in statistical learning theory: learning from independent examples and learning from a single auto-correlated sequence. Our conditions for efficient learning generalize the former setting--trajectories must be non-degenerate in ways that extend standard requirements for independent examples. Notably, we do not require that trajectories be ergodic, long, nor strictly stable. For linear least-squares regression, given $n$-dimensional examples produced by $m$ trajectories, each of length $T$, we observe a notable change in statistical efficiency as the number of trajectories increases from a few (namely $m \lesssim n$) to many (namely $m \gtrsim n$). Specifically, we establish that the worst-case error rate of this problem is $\Theta(n / m T)$ whenever $m \gtrsim n$. Meanwhile, when $m \lesssim n$, we establish a (sharp) lower bound of $\Omega(n^2 / m^2 T)$ on the worst-case error rate, realized by a simple, marginally unstable linear dynamical system. A key upshot is that, in domains where trajectories regularly reset, the error rate eventually behaves as if all of the examples were independent, drawn from their marginals. As a corollary of our analysis, we also improve guarantees for the linear system identification problem.
Company-as-Tribe: Company Financial Risk Assessment on Tribe-Style Graph with Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks
Bi, Wendong, Xu, Bingbing, Sun, Xiaoqian, Wang, Zidong, Shen, Huawei, Cheng, Xueqi
Company financial risk is ubiquitous and early risk assessment for listed companies can avoid considerable losses. Traditional methods mainly focus on the financial statements of companies and lack the complex relationships among them. However, the financial statements are often biased and lagged, making it difficult to identify risks accurately and timely. To address the challenges, we redefine the problem as \textbf{company financial risk assessment on tribe-style graph} by taking each listed company and its shareholders as a tribe and leveraging financial news to build inter-tribe connections. Such tribe-style graphs present different patterns to distinguish risky companies from normal ones. However, most nodes in the tribe-style graph lack attributes, making it difficult to directly adopt existing graph learning methods (e.g., Graph Neural Networks(GNNs)). In this paper, we propose a novel Hierarchical Graph Neural Network (TH-GNN) for Tribe-style graphs via two levels, with the first level to encode the structure pattern of the tribes with contrastive learning, and the second level to diffuse information based on the inter-tribe relations, achieving effective and efficient risk assessment. Extensive experiments on the real-world company dataset show that our method achieves significant improvements on financial risk assessment over previous competing methods. Also, the extensive ablation studies and visualization comprehensively show the effectiveness of our method.
Deep Reinforcement Learning for Cryptocurrency Trading: Practical Approach to Address Backtest Overfitting
Gort, Berend Jelmer Dirk, Liu, Xiao-Yang, Sun, Xinghang, Gao, Jiechao, Chen, Shuaiyu, Wang, Christina Dan
Designing profitable and reliable trading strategies is challenging in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. Existing works applied deep reinforcement learning methods and optimistically reported increased profits in backtesting, which may suffer from the false positive issue due to overfitting. In this paper, we propose a practical approach to address backtest overfitting for cryptocurrency trading using deep reinforcement learning. First, we formulate the detection of backtest overfitting as a hypothesis test. Then, we train the DRL agents, estimate the probability of overfitting, and reject the overfitted agents, increasing the chance of good trading performance. Finally, on 10 cryptocurrencies over a testing period from 05/01/2022 to 06/27/2022 (during which the crypto market crashed two times), we show that the less overfitted deep reinforcement learning agents have a higher return than that of more overfitted agents, an equal weight strategy, and the S&P DBM Index (market benchmark), offering confidence in possible deployment to a real market.
Superhuman Fairness
Memarrast, Omid, Vu, Linh, Ziebart, Brian
The fairness of machine learning-based decisions has become an increasingly important focus in the design of supervised machine learning methods. Most fairness approaches optimize a specified trade-off between performance measure(s) (e.g., accuracy, log loss, or AUC) and fairness metric(s) (e.g., demographic parity, equalized odds). This begs the question: are the right performance-fairness trade-offs being specified? We instead re-cast fair machine learning as an imitation learning task by introducing superhuman fairness, which seeks to simultaneously outperform human decisions on multiple predictive performance and fairness measures. We demonstrate the benefits of this approach given suboptimal decisions.
An Analysis of Classification Approaches for Hit Song Prediction using Engineered Metadata Features with Lyrics and Audio Features
Zhao, Mengyisong, Harvey, Morgan, Cameron, David, Hopfgartner, Frank, Gillet, Valerie J.
Hit song prediction, one of the emerging fields in music information retrieval (MIR), remains a considerable challenge. Being able to understand what makes a given song a hit is clearly beneficial to the whole music industry. Previous approaches to hit song prediction have focused on using audio features of a record. This study aims to improve the prediction result of the top 10 hits among Billboard Hot 100 songs using more alternative metadata, including song audio features provided by Spotify, song lyrics, and novel metadata-based features (title topic, popularity continuity and genre class). Five machine learning approaches are applied, including: k-nearest neighbours, Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Logistic Regression and Multilayer Perceptron. Our results show that Random Forest (RF) and Logistic Regression (LR) with all features (including novel features, song audio features and lyrics features) outperforms other models, achieving 89.1% and 87.2% accuracy, and 0.91 and 0.93 AUC, respectively. Our findings also demonstrate the utility of our novel music metadata features, which contributed most to the models' discriminative performance.
Real-time LIDAR localization in natural and urban environments
Tinchev, Georgi, Penate-Sanchez, Adrian, Fallon, Maurice
Localization is a key challenge in many robotics applications. In this work we explore LIDAR-based global localization in both urban and natural environments and develop a method suitable for online application. Our approach leverages efficient deep learning architecture capable of learning compact point cloud descriptors directly from 3D data. The method uses an efficient feature space representation of a set of segmented point clouds to match between the current scene and the prior map. We show that down-sampling in the inner layers of the network can significantly reduce computation time without sacrificing performance. We present substantial evaluation of LIDAR-based global localization methods on nine scenarios from six datasets varying between urban, park, forest, and industrial environments. Part of which includes post-processed data from 30 sequences of the Oxford RobotCar dataset, which we make publicly available. Our experiments demonstrate a factor of three reduction of computation, 70% lower memory consumption with marginal loss in localization frequency. The proposed method allows the full pipeline to run on robots with limited computation payload such as drones, quadrupeds, and UGVs as it does not require a GPU at run time.
Friend-training: Learning from Models of Different but Related Tasks
Zhang, Mian, Jin, Lifeng, Song, Linfeng, Mi, Haitao, Zhou, Xiabing, Yu, Dong
Current self-training methods such as standard self-training, co-training, tri-training, and others often focus on improving model performance on a single task, utilizing differences in input features, model architectures, and training processes. However, many tasks in natural language processing are about different but related aspects of language, and models trained for one task can be great teachers for other related tasks. In this work, we propose friend-training, a cross-task self-training framework, where models trained to do different tasks are used in an iterative training, pseudo-labeling, and retraining process to help each other for better selection of pseudo-labels. With two dialogue understanding tasks, conversational semantic role labeling and dialogue rewriting, chosen for a case study, we show that the models trained with the friend-training framework achieve the best performance compared to strong baselines.
Learning to Reject with a Fixed Predictor: Application to Decontextualization
Mohri, Christopher, Andor, Daniel, Choi, Eunsol, Collins, Michael
Large language models, often trained with billions of parameters, have achieved impressive performance in recent years (Raffel et al., 2019) and are used in a wide variety of natural language generation tasks. However, their output is sometimes undesirable, with hallucinated content (Maynez et al., 2020; Filippova, 2020), and much work remains to fully understand their properties. In many applications, such as healthcare, question-answering systems, or customer service, incorrect predictions are particularly costly and must be avoided. This motivates the design of algorithms for large language models and other NLP tasks that achieve high precision on a large fraction of the input set, while abstaining on the rest. How can we devise such accurate models that allow a reject option?
FreeMatch: Self-adaptive Thresholding for Semi-supervised Learning
Wang, Yidong, Chen, Hao, Heng, Qiang, Hou, Wenxin, Fan, Yue, Wu, Zhen, Wang, Jindong, Savvides, Marios, Shinozaki, Takahiro, Raj, Bhiksha, Schiele, Bernt, Xie, Xing
Semi-supervised Learning (SSL) has witnessed great success owing to the impressive performances brought by various methods based on pseudo labeling and consistency regularization. However, we argue that existing methods might fail to utilize the unlabeled data more effectively since they either use a pre-defined / fixed threshold or an ad-hoc threshold adjusting scheme, resulting in inferior performance and slow convergence. We first analyze a motivating example to obtain intuitions on the relationship between the desirable threshold and model's learning status. Based on the analysis, we hence propose FreeMatch to adjust the confidence threshold in a self-adaptive manner according to the model's learning status. We further introduce a self-adaptive class fairness regularization penalty to encourage the model for diverse predictions during the early training stage. Extensive experiments indicate the superiority of FreeMatch especially when the labeled data are extremely rare. FreeMatch achieves 5.78%, 13.59%, and 1.28% error rate reduction over the latest state-of-the-art method FlexMatch on CIFAR-10 with 1 label per class, STL-10 with 4 labels per class, and ImageNet with 100 labels per class, respectively. Moreover, FreeMatch can also boost the performance of imbalanced SSL. The codes can be found at https://github.com/microsoft/Semi-supervised-learning.