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 Performance Analysis


Training Normalizing Flows with the Precision-Recall Divergence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generative models can have distinct mode of failures like mode dropping and low quality samples, which cannot be captured by a single scalar metric. To address this, recent works propose evaluating generative models using precision and recall, where precision measures quality of samples and recall measures the coverage of the target distribution. Although a variety of discrepancy measures between the target and estimated distribution are used to train generative models, it is unclear what precision-recall trade-offs are achieved by various choices of the discrepancy measures. In this paper, we show that achieving a specified precision-recall trade-off corresponds to minimising -divergences from a family we call the {\em PR-divergences }. Conversely, any -divergence can be written as a linear combination of PR-divergences and therefore correspond to minimising a weighted precision-recall trade-off. Further, we propose a novel generative model that is able to train a normalizing flow to minimise any -divergence, and in particular, achieve a given precision-recall trade-off.


Hyper-parameter Tuning for Fair Classification without Sensitive Attribute Access

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fair machine learning methods seek to train models that balance model performance across demographic subgroups defined over sensitive attributes like race and gender. Although sensitive attributes are typically assumed to be known during training, they may not be available in practice due to privacy and other logistical concerns. Recent work has sought to train fair models without sensitive attributes on training data. However, these methods need extensive hyper-parameter tuning to achieve good results, and hence assume that sensitive attributes are known on validation data. However, this assumption too might not be practical. Here, we propose Antigone, a framework to train fair classifiers without access to sensitive attributes on either training or validation data. Instead, we generate pseudo sensitive attributes on the validation data by training a biased classifier and using the classifier's incorrectly (correctly) labeled examples as proxies for minority (majority) groups. Since fairness metrics like demographic parity, equal opportunity and subgroup accuracy can be estimated to within a proportionality constant even with noisy sensitive attribute information, we show theoretically and empirically that these proxy labels can be used to maximize fairness under average accuracy constraints. Key to our results is a principled approach to select the hyper-parameters of the biased classifier in a completely unsupervised fashion (meaning without access to ground truth sensitive attributes) that minimizes the gap between fairness estimated using noisy versus ground-truth sensitive labels.


Is it worth it? Comparing six deep and classical methods for unsupervised anomaly detection in time series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The detection of anomalies, or observations that significantly deviate from what is considered normal [1], in time series data is essential in various fields, including healthcare [2], cybersecurity [3, 4], industry [5], and robotics [6]. Anomaly detection is a notoriously challenging task, as the definition of what is considered anomalous can vary based on the context or application [7]. Moreover, the absence of labeled training data for non-academic problems often precludes the use of supervised machine learning techniques. Anomaly detection in data streams, which requires rapid results while aiming to detect anomalies accurately and efficiently, is frequently necessary. It is important to minimize false positive detections to prevent alarm fatigue, which can result in a serious problem being overlooked due to excessive false alarms [7]. It is also necessary to choose the appropriate method based on the application and, often, domain knowledge, as the existence of a universal anomaly detection method is a myth [8]. Choosing the appropriate method from the plethora of available options can be a challenge in itself, as different methods have different strengths in detecting certain types of anomalies. The numerous available methods can be categorized using various criteria, such as the underlying probabilistic, classification, or reconstruction-based model [1], the type of input data (univariate or multivariate), the need for labeled training data, or the ability to process data streams. In this work, we compare six unsupervised anomaly detection methods with varying complexities.


Modelling the long-term fairness dynamics of data-driven targeted help on job seekers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The use of data-driven decision support by public agencies is becoming more widespread and already influences the allocation of public resources. This raises ethical concerns, as it has adversely affected minorities and historically discriminated groups. In this paper, we use an approach that combines statistics and data-driven approaches with dynamical modeling to assess long-term fairness effects of labor market interventions. Specifically, we develop and use a model to investigate the impact of decisions caused by a public employment authority that selectively supports job-seekers through targeted help. The selection of who receives what help is based on a data-driven intervention model that estimates an individual's chances of finding a job in a timely manner and rests upon data that describes a population in which skills relevant to the labor market are unevenly distributed between two groups (e.g., males and females). The intervention model has incomplete access to the individual's actual skills and can augment this with knowledge of the individual's group affiliation, thus using a protected attribute to increase predictive accuracy. We assess this intervention model's dynamics -- especially fairness-related issues and trade-offs between different fairness goals -- over time and compare it to an intervention model that does not use group affiliation as a predictive feature. We conclude that in order to quantify the trade-off correctly and to assess the long-term fairness effects of such a system in the real-world, careful modeling of the surrounding labor market is indispensable.


Uncertainty in Fairness Assessment: Maintaining Stable Conclusions Despite Fluctuations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the current adoption of machine learning (ML) systems in social, economic, and industrial domains, concerns about the fairness of automated decisions have been added to the problem of ensuring the efficiency of algorithms in a stable and interpretative manner. Although both aspects are measured in terms of performance metrics, fairness entails the additional challenge of incorporating sensitive information in the data and new procedures need to be considered to control the stability of such outcomes. Recent ML trends are increasingly encouraging researchers to incorporate uncertainty into the evaluation of algorithm-based systems. In order to increase the transparency of algorithmic performance measures, typically for comparison purposes, some authors [3, 19] propose to treat these metrics as random variables whose posterior distributions are updated through Bayesian inference. In the fair learning setting, these kinds of considerations are also necessary, especially since fairness metrics have been proved unstable with respect to dataset composition. In particular, Ji et al. [17] or Friedler et al. [12] showed how certain fairness metrics strongly vary, respectively, in hold-out


Out of Context: Investigating the Bias and Fairness Concerns of "Artificial Intelligence as a Service"

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

"AI as a Service" (AIaaS) is a rapidly growing market, offering various plug-and-play AI services and tools. AIaaS enables its customers (users) - who may lack the expertise, data, and/or resources to develop their own systems - to easily build and integrate AI capabilities into their applications. Yet, it is known that AI systems can encapsulate biases and inequalities that can have societal impact. This paper argues that the context-sensitive nature of fairness is often incompatible with AIaaS' 'one-size-fits-all' approach, leading to issues and tensions. Specifically, we review and systematise the AIaaS space by proposing a taxonomy of AI services based on the levels of autonomy afforded to the user. We then critically examine the different categories of AIaaS, outlining how these services can lead to biases or be otherwise harmful in the context of end-user applications. In doing so, we seek to draw research attention to the challenges of this emerging area.


New AI classifier for indicating AI-written text

#artificialintelligence

We're launching a classifier trained to distinguish between AI-written and human-written text. We've trained a classifier to distinguish between text written by a human and text written by AIs from a variety of providers. While it is impossible to reliably detect all AI-written text, we believe good classifiers can inform mitigations for false claims that AI-generated text was written by a human: for example, running automated misinformation campaigns, using AI tools for academic dishonesty, and positioning an AI chatbot as a human. Our classifier is not fully reliable. In our evaluations on a "challenge set" of English texts, our classifier correctly identifies 26% of AI-written text (true positives) as "likely AI-written," while incorrectly labeling human-written text as AI-written 9% of the time (false positives).


Deterministic equivalent and error universality of deep random features learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This manuscript considers the problem of learning a random Gaussian network function using a fully connected network with frozen intermediate layers and trainable readout layer. This problem can be seen as a natural generalization of the widely studied random features model to deeper architectures. First, we prove Gaussian universality of the test error in a ridge regression setting where the learner and target networks share the same intermediate layers, and provide a sharp asymptotic formula for it. Establishing this result requires proving a deterministic equivalent for traces of the deep random features sample covariance matrices which can be of independent interest. Second, we conjecture the asymptotic Gaussian universality of the test error in the more general setting of arbitrary convex losses and generic learner/target architectures. We provide extensive numerical evidence for this conjecture, which requires the derivation of closed-form expressions for the layer-wise post-activation population covariances. In light of our results, we investigate the interplay between architecture design and implicit regularization.


Using Machine Learning to Develop Smart Reflex Testing Protocols

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Objective: Reflex testing protocols allow clinical laboratories to perform second line diagnostic tests on existing specimens based on the results of initially ordered tests. Reflex testing can support optimal clinical laboratory test ordering and diagnosis. In current clinical practice, reflex testing typically relies on simple "if-then" rules; however, this limits their scope since most test ordering decisions involve more complexity than a simple rule will allow. Here, using the analyte ferritin as an example, we propose an alternative machine learning-based approach to "smart" reflex testing with a wider scope and greater impact than traditional rule-based approaches. Methods: Using patient data, we developed a machine learning model to predict whether a patient getting CBC testing will also have ferritin testing ordered, consider applications of this model to "smart" reflex testing, and evaluate the model by comparing its performance to possible rule-based approaches. Results: Our underlying machine learning models performed moderately well in predicting ferritin test ordering and demonstrated greater suitability to reflex testing than rule-based approaches. Using chart review, we demonstrate that our model may improve ferritin test ordering. Finally, as a secondary goal, we demonstrate that ferritin test results are missing not at random (MNAR), a finding with implications for unbiased imputation of missing test results. Conclusions: Machine learning may provide a foundation for new types of reflex testing with enhanced benefits for clinical diagnosis and laboratory utilization management.


Learning to be Fair: A Consequentialist Approach to Equitable Decision-Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the dominant paradigm for designing equitable machine learning systems, one works to ensure that model predictions satisfy various fairness criteria, such as parity in error rates across race, gender, and other legally protected traits. That approach, however, typically ignores the downstream decisions and outcomes that predictions affect, and, as a result, can induce unexpected harms. Here we present an alternative framework for fairness that directly anticipates the consequences of decisions. Stakeholders first specify preferences over the possible outcomes of an algorithmically informed decision-making process. For example, lenders may prefer extending credit to those most likely to repay a loan, while also preferring similar lending rates across neighborhoods. One then searches the space of decision policies to maximize the specified utility. We develop and describe a method for efficiently learning these optimal policies from data for a large family of expressive utility functions, facilitating a more holistic approach to equitable decision-making.