While transformer-based systems have enabled greater accuracies with fewer training examples, data acquisition obstacles still persist for rare-class tasks -- when the class label is very infrequent (e.g. < 5% of samples). Active learning has in general been proposed to alleviate such challenges, but choice of selection strategy, the criteria by which rare-class examples are chosen, has not been systematically evaluated. Further, transformers enable iterative transfer-learning approaches. We propose and investigate transfer- and active learning solutions to the rare class problem of dissonance detection through utilizing models trained on closely related tasks and the evaluation of acquisition strategies, including a proposed probability-of-rare-class (PRC) approach. We perform these experiments for a specific rare class problem: collecting language samples of cognitive dissonance from social media. We find that PRC is a simple and effective strategy to guide annotations and ultimately improve model accuracy while transfer-learning in a specific order can improve the cold-start performance of the learner but does not benefit iterations of active learning.

Selecting a minimal feature set that is maximally informative about a target variable is a central task in machine learning and statistics. Information theory provides a powerful framework for formulating feature selection algorithms -- yet, a rigorous, information-theoretic definition of feature relevancy, which accounts for feature interactions such as redundant and synergistic contributions, is still missing. We argue that this lack is inherent to classical information theory which does not provide measures to decompose the information a set of variables provides about a target into unique, redundant, and synergistic contributions. Such a decomposition has been introduced only recently by the partial information decomposition (PID) framework. Using PID, we clarify why feature selection is a conceptually difficult problem when approached using information theory and provide a novel definition of feature relevancy and redundancy in PID terms. From this definition, we show that the conditional mutual information (CMI) maximizes relevancy while minimizing redundancy and propose an iterative, CMI-based algorithm for practical feature selection. We demonstrate the power of our CMI-based algorithm in comparison to the unconditional mutual information on benchmark examples and provide corresponding PID estimates to highlight how PID allows to quantify information contribution of features and their interactions in feature-selection problems.

Clinical prediction is an essential task in the healthcare industry. However, the recent success of transformers, on which large language models are built, has not been extended to this domain. In this research, we explore the use of transformers and language models in prognostic prediction for immunotherapy using real-world patients' clinical data and molecular profiles. This paper investigates the potential of transformers to improve clinical prediction compared to conventional machine learning approaches and addresses the challenge of few-shot learning in predicting rare disease areas. The study benchmarks the efficacy of baselines and language models on prognostic prediction across multiple cancer types and investigates the impact of different pretrained language models under few-shot regimes. The results demonstrate significant improvements in accuracy and highlight the potential of NLP in clinical research to improve early detection and intervention for different diseases.

Transforming a design into a high-quality product is a challenge in metal additive manufacturing due to rare events which can cause defects to form. Detecting these events in-situ could, however, reduce inspection costs, enable corrective action, and is the first step towards a future of tailored material properties. In this study a model is trained on laser input information to predict nominal laser melting conditions. An anomaly score is then calculated by taking the difference between the predictions and new observations. The model is evaluated on a dataset with known defects achieving an F1 score of 0.821. This study shows that anomaly detection methods are an important tool in developing robust defect detection methods.

We provide a psychometric-grounded exposition of bias and fairness as applied to a typical machine learning pipeline for affective computing. We expand on an interpersonal communication framework to elucidate how to identify sources of bias that may arise in the process of inferring human emotions and other psychological constructs from observed behavior. Various methods and metrics for measuring fairness and bias are discussed along with pertinent implications within the United States legal context. We illustrate how to measure some types of bias and fairness in a case study involving automatic personality and hireability inference from multimodal data collected in video interviews for mock job applications. We encourage affective computing researchers and practitioners to encapsulate bias and fairness in their research processes and products and to consider their role, agency, and responsibility in promoting equitable and just systems. Personal use of this material is permitted. The tools used in affective computing (AC), which enable machines to identify people's behaviors and mental states, are being increasingly utilized in education, healthcare, and the workplace. One application is to aid in the allocation of limited resources (e.g., counseling, mental health care, in-person interviews) via automated screening [1-3]. In these types of high-stakes scenarios, the assessments provided by AC systems can directly affect the decision processes which influence the amount of attention, care, and opportunities afforded to individuals. As such, it is important that these processes are accurate, unbiased, and fair because any deficiencies or errors present in these systems stemming from the data they were trained on, the types of algorithms used, or the decision processes themselves, may disproportionately impact different groups of people and lead to ethical and legal concerns, not to mention pain and suffering for the vulnerable groups impacted. Simply put, AC systems must deter, not propagate, extant systems of inequity and injustice. Fortunately, we have decades of guidance on how to construct fair and unbiased measurement systems.

We describe how interpretable boosting algorithms based on ridge-regularized generalized linear models can be used to analyze high-dimensional environmental data. We illustrate this by using environmental, social, human and biophysical data to predict the financial vulnerability of farmers in Chile and Tunisia against climate hazards. We show how group structures can be considered and how interactions can be found in high-dimensional datasets using a novel 2-step boosting approach. The advantages and efficacy of the proposed method are shown and discussed. Results indicate that the presence of interaction effects only improves predictive power when included in two-step boosting. The most important variable in predicting all types of vulnerabilities are natural assets. Other important variables are the type of irrigation, economic assets and the presence of crop damage of near farms.

Today text classification becomes critical task for concerned individuals for numerous purposes. Hence, several researches have been conducted to develop automatic text classification for national and international languages. However, the need for an automatic text categorization system for local languages is felt. The main aim of this study is to establish a Pashto automatic text classification system. In order to pursue this work, we built a Pashto corpus which is a collection of Pashto documents due to the unavailability of public datasets of Pashto text documents. Besides, this study compares several models containing both statistical and neural network machine learning techniques including Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K Nearest Neighbor (KNN), decision tree, gaussian na\"ive Bayes, multinomial na\"ive Bayes, random forest, and logistic regression to discover the most effective approach. Moreover, this investigation evaluates two different feature extraction methods including unigram, and Time Frequency Inverse Document Frequency (IFIDF). Subsequently, this research obtained average testing accuracy rate 94% using MLP classification algorithm and TFIDF feature extraction method in this context.

Quantifying the dissimilarity of two texts is an important aspect of a number of natural language processing tasks, including semantic information retrieval, topic classification, and document clustering. In this paper, we compared the properties and performance of different dissimilarity measures $D$ using three different representations of texts -- vocabularies, word frequency distributions, and vector embeddings -- and three simple tasks -- clustering texts by author, subject, and time period. Using the Project Gutenberg database, we found that the generalised Jensen--Shannon divergence applied to word frequencies performed strongly across all tasks, that $D$'s based on vector embedding representations led to stronger performance for smaller texts, and that the optimal choice of approach was ultimately task-dependent. We also investigated, both analytically and numerically, the behaviour of the different $D$'s when the two texts varied in length by a factor $h$. We demonstrated that the (natural) estimator of the Jaccard distance between vocabularies was inconsistent and computed explicitly the $h$-dependency of the bias of the estimator of the generalised Jensen--Shannon divergence applied to word frequencies. We also found numerically that the Jensen--Shannon divergence and embedding-based approaches were robust to changes in $h$, while the Jaccard distance was not.

International maritime crime is becoming increasingly sophisticated, often associated with wider criminal networks. Detecting maritime threats by means of fusing data purely related to physical movement (i.e., those generated by physical sensors, or hard data) is not sufficient. This has led to research and development efforts aimed at combining hard data with other types of data (especially human-generated or soft data). Existing work often assumes that input soft data is available in a structured format, or is focused on extracting certain relevant entities or concepts to accompany or annotate hard data. Much less attention has been given to extracting the rich knowledge about the situations of interest implicitly embedded in the large amount of soft data existing in unstructured formats (such as intelligence reports and news articles). In order to exploit the potentially useful and rich information from such sources, it is necessary to extract not only the relevant entities and concepts but also their semantic relations, together with the uncertainty associated with the extracted knowledge (i.e., in the form of probabilistic knowledge graphs). This will increase the accuracy of and confidence in, the extracted knowledge and facilitate subsequent reasoning and learning. To this end, we propose Maritime DeepDive, an initial prototype for the automated construction of probabilistic knowledge graphs from natural language data for the maritime domain. In this paper, we report on the current implementation of Maritime DeepDive, together with preliminary results on extracting probabilistic events from maritime piracy incidents. This pipeline was evaluated on a manually crafted gold standard, yielding promising results.

Carbon offset programs are critical in the fight against climate change. One emerging threat to the long-term stability and viability of forest carbon offset projects is wildfires, which can release large amounts of carbon and limit the efficacy of associated offsetting credits. However, analysis of wildfire risk to forest carbon projects is challenging because existing models for forecasting long-term fire risk are limited in predictive accuracy. Therefore, we propose an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model trained on 7 million global satellite wildfire observations. Validation results suggest substantial potential for high resolution, enhanced accuracy projections of global wildfire risk, and the model outperforms the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research's leading fire model. Applied to a collection of 190 global forest carbon projects, we find that fire exposure is projected to increase 55% [37-76%] by 2080 under a mid-range scenario (SSP2-4.5). Our results indicate the large wildfire carbon project damages seen in the past decade are likely to become more frequent as forests become hotter and drier. In response, we hope the model can support wildfire managers, policymakers, and carbon market analysts to preemptively quantify and mitigate long-term permanence risks to forest carbon projects.