Physics is a field of science that has traditionally used the scientific method to answer questions about why natural phenomena occur and to make testable models that explain the phenomena. Discovering equations, laws and principles that are invariant, robust and causal explanations of the world has been fundamental in physical sciences throughout the centuries. Discoveries emerge from observing the world and, when possible, performing interventional studies in the system under study. With the advent of big data and the use of data-driven methods, causal and equation discovery fields have grown and made progress in computer science, physics, statistics, philosophy, and many applied fields. All these domains are intertwined and can be used to discover causal relations, physical laws, and equations from observational data. This paper reviews the concepts, methods, and relevant works on causal and equation discovery in the broad field of Physics and outlines the most important challenges and promising future lines of research. We also provide a taxonomy for observational causal and equation discovery, point out connections, and showcase a complete set of case studies in Earth and climate sciences, fluid dynamics and mechanics, and the neurosciences. This review demonstrates that discovering fundamental laws and causal relations by observing natural phenomena is being revolutionised with the efficient exploitation of observational data, modern machine learning algorithms and the interaction with domain knowledge. Exciting times are ahead with many challenges and opportunities to improve our understanding of complex systems.

Ensembling has a long history in statistical data analysis, with many impactful applications. However, in many modern machine learning settings, the benefits of ensembling are less ubiquitous and less obvious. We study, both theoretically and empirically, the fundamental question of when ensembling yields significant performance improvements in classification tasks. Theoretically, we prove new results relating the \emph{ensemble improvement rate} (a measure of how much ensembling decreases the error rate versus a single model, on a relative scale) to the \emph{disagreement-error ratio}. We show that ensembling improves performance significantly whenever the disagreement rate is large relative to the average error rate; and that, conversely, one classifier is often enough whenever the disagreement rate is low relative to the average error rate. On the way to proving these results, we derive, under a mild condition called \emph{competence}, improved upper and lower bounds on the average test error rate of the majority vote classifier. To complement this theory, we study ensembling empirically in a variety of settings, verifying the predictions made by our theory, and identifying practical scenarios where ensembling does and does not result in large performance improvements. Perhaps most notably, we demonstrate a distinct difference in behavior between interpolating models (popular in current practice) and non-interpolating models (such as tree-based methods, where ensembling is popular), demonstrating that ensembling helps considerably more in the latter case than in the former.

Reliable outlier detection is critical for real-world deployment of deep learning models. Although extensively studied, likelihoods produced by deep generative models have been largely dismissed as being impractical for outlier detection. First, deep generative model likelihoods are readily biased by low-level input statistics. Second, many recent solutions for correcting these biases are computationally expensive, or do not generalize well to complex, natural datasets. Here, we explore outlier detection with a state-of-the-art deep autoregressive model: PixelCNN++. We show that biases in PixelCNN++ likelihoods arise primarily from predictions based on local dependencies. We propose two families of bijective transformations -- ``stirring'' and ``shaking'' -- which ameliorate low-level biases and isolate the contribution of long-range dependencies to PixelCNN++ likelihoods. These transformations are inexpensive and readily computed at evaluation time. We test our approaches extensively with five grayscale and six natural image datasets and show that they achieve or exceed state-of-the-art outlier detection, particularly on datasets with complex, natural images. We also show that our solutions work well with other types of generative models (generative flows and variational autoencoders) and that their efficacy is governed by each model's reliance on local dependencies. In sum, lightweight remedies suffice to achieve robust outlier detection on image data with deep generative models.

Users' physical safety is an increasing concern as the market for intelligent systems continues to grow, where unconstrained systems may recommend users dangerous actions that can lead to serious injury. Covertly unsafe text is an area of particular interest, as such text may arise from everyday scenarios and are challenging to detect as harmful. We propose FARM, a novel framework leveraging external knowledge for trustworthy rationale generation in the context of safety. In particular, FARM foveates on missing knowledge to qualify the information required to reason in specific scenarios and retrieves this information with attribution to trustworthy sources. This knowledge is used to both classify the safety of the original text and generate human-interpretable rationales, shedding light on the risk of systems to specific user groups and helping both stakeholders manage the risks of their systems and policymakers to provide concrete safeguards for consumer safety. Our experiments show that FARM obtains state-of-the-art results on the SafeText dataset, showing absolute improvement in safety classification accuracy by 5.9%.

Federated Learning (FL) has been gaining popularity as a collaborative learning framework to train deep learning-based object detection models over a distributed population of clients. Despite its advantages, FL is vulnerable to model hijacking. The attacker can control how the object detection system should misbehave by implanting Trojaned gradients using only a small number of compromised clients in the collaborative learning process. This paper introduces STDLens, a principled approach to safeguarding FL against such attacks. We first investigate existing mitigation mechanisms and analyze their failures caused by the inherent errors in spatial clustering analysis on gradients. Based on the insights, we introduce a three-tier forensic framework to identify and expel Trojaned gradients and reclaim the performance over the course of FL. We consider three types of adaptive attacks and demonstrate the robustness of STDLens against advanced adversaries. Extensive experiments show that STDLens can protect FL against different model hijacking attacks and outperform existing methods in identifying and removing Trojaned gradients with significantly higher precision and much lower false-positive rates.

We tackle the Few-Shot Open-Set Recognition (FSOSR) problem, i.e. classifying instances among a set of classes for which we only have a few labeled samples, while simultaneously detecting instances that do not belong to any known class. We explore the popular transductive setting, which leverages the unlabelled query instances at inference. Motivated by the observation that existing transductive methods perform poorly in open-set scenarios, we propose a generalization of the maximum likelihood principle, in which latent scores down-weighing the influence of potential outliers are introduced alongside the usual parametric model. Our formulation embeds supervision constraints from the support set and additional penalties discouraging overconfident predictions on the query set. We proceed with a block-coordinate descent, with the latent scores and parametric model co-optimized alternately, thereby benefiting from each other. We call our resulting formulation \textit{Open-Set Likelihood Optimization} (OSLO). OSLO is interpretable and fully modular; it can be applied on top of any pre-trained model seamlessly. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method surpasses existing inductive and transductive methods on both aspects of open-set recognition, namely inlier classification and outlier detection.

We propose a novel method for predicting time-to-event in the presence of cure fractions based on flexible survivals models integrated into a deep neural network framework. Our approach allows for non-linear relationships and high-dimensional interactions between covariates and survival and is suitable for large-scale applications. Furthermore, we allow the method to incorporate an identified predictor formed of an additive decomposition of interpretable linear and non-linear effects and add an orthogonalization layer to capture potential higher dimensional interactions. We demonstrate the usefulness and computational efficiency of our method via simulations and apply it to a large portfolio of US mortgage loans. Here, we find not only a better predictive performance of our framework but also a more realistic picture of covariate effects.

Online Learning (OL) is a field of research that is increasingly gaining attention both in academia and industry. One of the main challenges of OL is the inherent presence of concept drifts, which are commonly defined as unforeseeable changes in the statistical properties of an incoming data stream over time. The detection of concept drifts typically involves analyzing the error rates produced by an underlying OL algorithm in order to identify if a concept drift occurred or not, such that the OL algorithm can adapt accordingly. Current concept-drift detectors perform very well, i.e., with low false negative rates, but they still tend to exhibit high false positive rates in the concept-drift detection. This may impact the performance of the learner and result in an undue amount of computational resources spent on retraining a model that actually still performs within its expected range. In this paper, we propose OPTWIN, our "OPTimal WINdow" concept drift detector. OPTWIN uses a sliding window of events over an incoming data stream to track the errors of an OL algorithm. The novelty of OPTWIN is to consider both the means and the variances of the error rates produced by a learner in order to split the sliding window into two provably optimal sub-windows, such that the split occurs at the earliest event at which a statistically significant difference according to either the $t$- or the $f$-tests occurred. We assessed OPTWIN over the MOA framework, using ADWIN, DDM, EDDM, STEPD and ECDD as baselines over 7 synthetic and real-world datasets, and in the presence of both sudden and gradual concept drifts. In our experiments, we show that OPTWIN surpasses the F1-score of the baselines in a statistically significant manner while maintaining a lower detection delay and saving up to 21% of time spent on retraining the models.

Abstract--Change point detection is a crucial aspect of analyzing strategies it is necessary to identify momentum turning points, when time series data, as the presence of a change point indicates an a trend reverses from an uptrend to a downtrend such as in the 2020 abrupt and significant change in the process generating the data. While many algorithms for the problem of change point detection have been developed over time, it can be challenging to select This article presents an overview and comparison of algorithms the appropriate algorithm for a specific problem. The choice of commonly used for detecting change points in time series data. The the algorithm heavily depends on the nature of the problem and focus is on unsupervised change point detection, which involves the underlying data source. In this paper, we will exclusively segmenting the data without relying on large amounts of annotated examine unsupervised techniques due to their flexibility in the training data or the need to re-calibrate the model for each data application to various data sources without the requirement for source. The goal of this article is to help choosing the right detection abundant annotated training data and the re-calibration of the method for a particular application, with an emphasis on practical model. The examined methods will be introduced and evaluated aspects like the implementation and the calibration of the parameters. Our selection of methods aims for a good general performance for different data sources without fine tuning the algorithm.

The North S\'{a}mi (NS) language encapsulates four primary dialectal variants that are related but that also have differences in their phonology, morphology, and vocabulary. The unique geopolitical location of NS speakers means that in many cases they are bilingual in S\'{a}mi as well as in the dominant state language: Norwegian, Swedish, or Finnish. This enables us to study the NS variants both with respect to the spoken state language and their acoustic characteristics. In this paper, we investigate an extensive set of acoustic features, including MFCCs and prosodic features, as well as state-of-the-art self-supervised representations, namely, XLS-R, WavLM, and HuBERT, for the automatic detection of the four NS variants. In addition, we examine how the majority state language is reflected in the dialects. Our results show that NS dialects are influenced by the state language and that the four dialects are separable, reaching high classification accuracy, especially with the XLS-R model.