Performance Analysis
Near-optimal multiple testing in Bayesian linear models with finite-sample FDR control
Ahn, Taejoo, Lin, Licong, Mei, Song
In high dimensional variable selection problems, statisticians often seek to design multiple testing procedures that control the False Discovery Rate (FDR), while concurrently identifying a greater number of relevant variables. Model-X methods, such as Knockoffs and conditional randomization tests, achieve the primary goal of finite-sample FDR control, assuming a known distribution of covariates. However, whether these methods can also achieve the secondary goal of maximizing discoveries remains uncertain. In fact, designing procedures to discover more relevant variables with finite-sample FDR control is a largely open question, even within the arguably simplest linear models. In this paper, we develop near-optimal multiple testing procedures for high dimensional Bayesian linear models with isotropic covariates. We introduce Model-X procedures that provably control the frequentist FDR from finite samples, even when the model is misspecified, and conjecturally achieve near-optimal power when the data follow the Bayesian linear model. Our proposed procedure, PoEdCe, incorporates three key ingredients: Posterior Expectation, distilled Conditional randomization test (dCRT), and the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure with e-values (eBH). The optimality conjecture of PoEdCe is based on a heuristic calculation of its asymptotic true positive proportion (TPP) and false discovery proportion (FDP), which is supported by methods from statistical physics as well as extensive numerical simulations. Our result establishes the Bayesian linear model as a benchmark for comparing the power of various multiple testing procedures.
A Review of Machine Learning Methods Applied to Structural Dynamics and Vibroacoustic
Cunha, Barbara, Droz, Christophe, Zine, Abdelmalek, Foulard, Stรฉphane, Ichchou, Mohamed
The use of Machine Learning (ML) has rapidly spread across several fields, having encountered many applications in Structural Dynamics and Vibroacoustic (SD\&V). The increasing capabilities of ML to unveil insights from data, driven by unprecedented data availability, algorithms advances and computational power, enhance decision making, uncertainty handling, patterns recognition and real-time assessments. Three main applications in SD\&V have taken advantage of these benefits. In Structural Health Monitoring, ML detection and prognosis lead to safe operation and optimized maintenance schedules. System identification and control design are leveraged by ML techniques in Active Noise Control and Active Vibration Control. Finally, the so-called ML-based surrogate models provide fast alternatives to costly simulations, enabling robust and optimized product design. Despite the many works in the area, they have not been reviewed and analyzed. Therefore, to keep track and understand this ongoing integration of fields, this paper presents a survey of ML applications in SD\&V analyses, shedding light on the current state of implementation and emerging opportunities. The main methodologies, advantages, limitations, and recommendations based on scientific knowledge were identified for each of the three applications. Moreover, the paper considers the role of Digital Twins and Physics Guided ML to overcome current challenges and power future research progress. As a result, the survey provides a broad overview of the present landscape of ML applied in SD\&V and guides the reader to an advanced understanding of progress and prospects in the field.
Inorganic synthesis-structure maps in zeolites with machine learning and crystallographic distances
Schwalbe-Koda, Daniel, Widdowson, Daniel E., Pham, Tuan Anh, Kurlin, Vitaliy A.
Zeolites are inorganic materials known for their diversity of applications, synthesis conditions, and resulting polymorphs. Although their synthesis is controlled both by inorganic and organic synthesis conditions, computational studies of zeolite synthesis have focused mostly on organic template design. In this work, we use a strong distance metric between crystal structures and machine learning (ML) to create inorganic synthesis maps in zeolites. Starting with 253 known zeolites, we show how the continuous distances between frameworks reproduce inorganic synthesis conditions from the literature without using labels such as building units. An unsupervised learning analysis shows that neighboring zeolites according to our metric often share similar inorganic synthesis conditions, even in template-based routes. In combination with ML classifiers, we find synthesis-structure relationships for 14 common inorganic conditions in zeolites, namely Al, B, Be, Ca, Co, F, Ga, Ge, K, Mg, Na, P, Si, and Zn. By explaining the model predictions, we demonstrate how (dis)similarities towards known structures can be used as features for the synthesis space. Finally, we show how these methods can be used to predict inorganic synthesis conditions for unrealized frameworks in hypothetical databases and interpret the outcomes by extracting local structural patterns from zeolites. In combination with template design, this work can accelerate the exploration of the space of synthesis conditions for zeolites.
The Effect of Epidemiological Cohort Creation on the Machine Learning Prediction of Homelessness and Police Interaction Outcomes Using Administrative Health Care Data
Shahidi, Faezehsadat, MacDonald, M. Ethan, Seitz, Dallas, Messier, Geoffrey
Background: Mental illness can lead to adverse outcomes such as homelessness and police interaction and understanding of the events leading up to these adverse outcomes is important. Predictive models may help identify individuals at risk of such adverse outcomes. Using a fixed observation window cohort with logistic regression (LR) or machine learning (ML) models can result in lower performance when compared with adaptive and parcellated windows. Method: An administrative healthcare dataset was used, comprising of 240,219 individuals in Calgary, Alberta, Canada who were diagnosed with addiction or mental health (AMH) between April 1, 2013, and March 31, 2018. The cohort was followed for 2 years to identify factors associated with homelessness and police interactions. To understand the benefit of flexible windows to predictive models, an alternative cohort was created. Then LR and ML models, including random forests (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were compared in the two cohorts. Results: Among 237,602 individuals, 0.8% (1,800) experienced first homelessness, while 0.32% (759) reported initial police interaction among 237,141 individuals. Male sex (AORs: H=1.51, P=2.52), substance disorder (AORs: H=3.70, P=2.83), psychiatrist visits (AORs: H=1.44, P=1.49), and drug abuse (AORs: H=2.67, P=1.83) were associated with initial homelessness (H) and police interaction (P). XGBoost showed superior performance using the flexible method (sensitivity =91%, AUC =90% for initial homelessness, and sensitivity =90%, AUC=89% for initial police interaction) Conclusion: This study identified key features associated with initial homelessness and police interaction and demonstrated that flexible windows can improve predictive modeling.
Screening Mammography Breast Cancer Detection
Breast cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths, but current programs are expensive and prone to false positives, leading to unnecessary follow-up and patient anxiety. This paper proposes a solution to automated breast cancer detection, to improve the efficiency and accuracy of screening programs. Different methodologies were tested against the RSNA dataset of radiographic breast images of roughly 20,000 female patients and yielded an average validation case pF1 score of 0.56 across methods.
NeoSySPArtaN: A Neuro-Symbolic Spin Prediction Architecture for higher-order multipole waveforms from eccentric Binary Black Hole mergers using Numerical Relativity
Vibho, Amrutaa, Bataineh, Ali Al
The prediction of spin magnitudes in binary black hole and neutron star mergers is crucial for understanding the astrophysical processes and gravitational wave (GW) signals emitted during these cataclysmic events. In this paper, we present a novel Neuro-Symbolic Architecture (NSA) that combines the power of neural networks and symbolic regression to accurately predict spin magnitudes of black hole and neutron star mergers. Our approach utilizes GW waveform data obtained from numerical relativity simulations in the SXS Waveform catalog. By combining these two approaches, we leverage the strengths of both paradigms, enabling a comprehensive and accurate prediction of spin magnitudes. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed architecture achieves an impressive root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) of 0.05 and mean-squared-error (MSE) of 0.03 for the NSA model and an RMSE of 0.12 for the symbolic regression model alone. We train this model to handle higher-order multipole waveforms, with a specific focus on eccentric candidates, which are known to exhibit unique characteristics. Our results provide a robust and interpretable framework for predicting spin magnitudes in mergers. This has implications for understanding the astrophysical properties of black holes and deciphering the physics underlying the GW signals.
Pluvio: Assembly Clone Search for Out-of-domain Architectures and Libraries through Transfer Learning and Conditional Variational Information Bottleneck
Fu, Zhiwei, Ding, Steven H. H., Alaca, Furkan, Fung, Benjamin C. M., Charland, Philippe
The practice of code reuse is crucial in software development for a faster and more efficient development lifecycle. In reality, however, code reuse practices lack proper control, resulting in issues such as vulnerability propagation and intellectual property infringements. Assembly clone search, a critical shift-right defence mechanism, has been effective in identifying vulnerable code resulting from reuse in released executables. Recent studies on assembly clone search demonstrate a trend towards using machine learning-based methods to match assembly code variants produced by different toolchains. However, these methods are limited to what they learn from a small number of toolchain variants used in training, rendering them inapplicable to unseen architectures and their corresponding compilation toolchain variants. This paper presents the first study on the problem of assembly clone search with unseen architectures and libraries. We propose incorporating human common knowledge through large-scale pre-trained natural language models, in the form of transfer learning, into current learning-based approaches for assembly clone search. Transfer learning can aid in addressing the limitations of the existing approaches, as it can bring in broader knowledge from human experts in assembly code. We further address the sequence limit issue by proposing a reinforcement learning agent to remove unnecessary and redundant tokens. Coupled with a new Variational Information Bottleneck learning strategy, the proposed system minimizes the reliance on potential indicators of architectures and optimization settings, for a better generalization of unseen architectures. We simulate the unseen architecture clone search scenarios and the experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach against the state-of-the-art solutions.
Ensemble Learning based Anomaly Detection for IoT Cybersecurity via Bayesian Hyperparameters Sensitivity Analysis
Lai, Tin, Farid, Farnaz, Bello, Abubakar, Sabrina, Fariza
The Internet of Things (IoT) integrates more than billions of intelligent devices over the globe with the capability of communicating with other connected devices with little to no human intervention. IoT enables data aggregation and analysis on a large scale to improve life quality in many domains. In particular, data collected by IoT contain a tremendous amount of information for anomaly detection. The heterogeneous nature of IoT is both a challenge and an opportunity for cybersecurity. Traditional approaches in cybersecurity monitoring often require different kinds of data pre-processing and handling for various data types, which might be problematic for datasets that contain heterogeneous features. However, heterogeneous types of network devices can often capture a more diverse set of signals than a single type of device readings, which is particularly useful for anomaly detection. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study on using ensemble machine learning methods for enhancing IoT cybersecurity via anomaly detection. Rather than using one single machine learning model, ensemble learning combines the predictive power from multiple models, enhancing their predictive accuracy in heterogeneous datasets rather than using one single machine learning model. We propose a unified framework with ensemble learning that utilises Bayesian hyperparameter optimisation to adapt to a network environment that contains multiple IoT sensor readings. Experimentally, we illustrate their high predictive power when compared to traditional methods.
A Deep Dive into the Disparity of Word Error Rates Across Thousands of NPTEL MOOC Videos
Rai, Anand Kumar, Jaiswal, Siddharth D, Mukherjee, Animesh
Automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems are designed to transcribe spoken language into written text and find utility in a variety of applications including voice assistants and transcription services. However, it has been observed that state-of-the-art ASR systems which deliver impressive benchmark results, struggle with speakers of certain regions or demographics due to variation in their speech properties. In this work, we describe the curation of a massive speech dataset of 8740 hours consisting of $\sim9.8$K technical lectures in the English language along with their transcripts delivered by instructors representing various parts of Indian demography. The dataset is sourced from the very popular NPTEL MOOC platform. We use the curated dataset to measure the existing disparity in YouTube Automatic Captions and OpenAI Whisper model performance across the diverse demographic traits of speakers in India. While there exists disparity due to gender, native region, age and speech rate of speakers, disparity based on caste is non-existent. We also observe statistically significant disparity across the disciplines of the lectures. These results indicate the need of more inclusive and robust ASR systems and more representational datasets for disparity evaluation in them.
Monotonic Risk Relationships under Distribution Shifts for Regularized Risk Minimization
LeJeune, Daniel, Liu, Jiayu, Heckel, Reinhard
Machine learning models are typically evaluated by shuffling a set of labeled data, splitting it into training and test sets, and evaluating the model trained on the training set on the test set. This measures how well the model performs on the distribution the model was trained on. However, in practice a model is most commonly not applied to such in-distribution data, but rather to outof-distribution data that is almost always at least slightly different. In order to understand the performance of machine learning methods in practice, it is therefore important to understand how out-of-distribution performance relates to in-distribution performance. While there are settings in which models with similar in-distribution performance have different out-of-distribution performance (McCoy et al., 2020), a series of recent empirical studies have shown that often, the in-distribution and out-of-distribution performances of models are strongly correlated: Recht et al. (2019), Yadav and Bottou (2019), and Miller et al. (2020) constructed new test sets for the popular CIFAR-10, ImageNet, and MNIST image classification problems and for the SQuAD question answering datasets by following the original data collection and labeling process as closely as possible. For CIFAR-10 and ImageNet the performance drops significantly when evaluated on the new test set, indicating that even when following the original data collection and labeling process, a significant distribution shift can occur. In addition, for all four distribution shifts, the in-and out-of-distribution errors are strongly linearly correlated.