Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

We consider the problem of estimating the false-/ true-positive-rate (FPR/TPR) for a binary classification model when there are incorrect labels (label noise) in the validation set. Our motivating application is fraud prevention where accurate estimates of FPR are critical to preserving the experience for good customers, and where label noise is highly asymmetric. Existing methods seek to minimize the total error in the cleaning process - to avoid cleaning examples that are not noise, and to ensure cleaning of examples that are. This is an important measure of accuracy but insufficient to guarantee good estimates of the true FPR or TPR for a model, and we show that using the model to directly clean its own validation data leads to underestimates even if total error is low. This indicates a need for researchers to pursue methods that not only reduce total error but also seek to de-correlate cleaning error with model scores.

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is a neurosurgical procedure successfully used to treat conditions such as Parkinson's disease. Electrostimulation, carried out by implanting electrodes into an identified focus in the brain, makes it possible to reduce the symptoms of the disease significantly. In this paper, a method for analyzing recordings of neuronal activity acquired during DBS neurosurgery using deep learning is presented. We tested using a convolutional neural network (CNN) for this purpose. Based on the time window, the classifier assesses whether neuronal activity (spike) is present. The maximum accuracy value for the classifier was 98.98%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.9898. The method made it possible to obtain a classification without using data preprocessing.

Ultrasonic welding machines play a critical role in the lithium battery industry, facilitating the bonding of batteries with conductors. Ensuring high-quality welding is vital, making tool condition monitoring systems essential for early-stage quality control. However, existing monitoring methods face challenges in cost, downtime, and adaptability. In this paper, we present WeldMon, an affordable ultrasonic welding machine condition monitoring system that utilizes a custom data acquisition system and a data analysis pipeline designed for real-time analysis. Our classification algorithm combines auto-generated features and hand-crafted features, achieving superior cross-validation accuracy (95.8% on average over all testing tasks) compared to the state-of-the-art method (92.5%) in condition classification tasks. Our data augmentation approach alleviates the concept drift problem, enhancing tool condition classification accuracy by 8.3%. All algorithms run locally, requiring only 385 milliseconds to process data for each welding cycle. We deploy WeldMon and a commercial system on an actual ultrasonic welding machine, performing a comprehensive comparison. Our findings highlight the potential for developing cost-effective, high-performance, and reliable tool condition monitoring systems.

Accurately predicting hospital length-of-stay at the time a patient is admitted to hospital may help guide clinical decision making and resource allocation. In this study we aim to build a decision support system that predicts hospital length-of-stay for patients admitted to general internal medicine from the emergency department. We conduct an exploratory data analysis and employ feature selection methods to identify the attributes that result in the best predictive performance. We also develop a discrete-event simulation model to assess the performances of the prediction models in a practical setting. Our results show that the recommendation performances of the proposed approaches are generally acceptable and do not benefit from the feature selection. Further, the results indicate that hospital length-of-stay could be predicted with reasonable accuracy (e.g., AUC value for classifying short and long stay patients is 0.69) using patient admission demographics, laboratory test results, diagnostic imaging, vital signs and clinical documentation.

This paper unifies the theory of consistent-set maximization for robust outlier detection in a simultaneous localization and mapping framework. We first describe the notion of pairwise consistency before discussing how a consistency graph can be formed by evaluating pairs of measurements for consistency. Finding the largest set of consistent measurements is transformed into an instance of the maximum clique problem and can be solved relatively quickly using existing maximum-clique solvers. We then generalize our algorithm to check consistency on a group-$k$ basis by using a generalized notion of consistency and using generalized graphs. We also present modified maximum clique algorithms that function on generalized graphs to find the set of measurements that is internally group-$k$ consistent. We address the exponential nature of group-$k$ consistency and present methods that can substantially decrease the number of necessary checks performed when evaluating consistency. We extend our prior work to multi-agent systems in both simulation and hardware and provide a comparison with other state-of-the-art methods.

To reason about where responsibility does and should lie in complex situations involving AI-enabled systems, we first need a sufficiently clear and detailed cross-disciplinary vocabulary for talking about responsibility. Responsibility is a triadic relation involving an actor, an occurrence, and a way of being responsible. As part of a conscious effort towards 'unravelling' the concept of responsibility to support practical reasoning about responsibility for AI, this paper takes the three-part formulation, 'Actor A is responsible for Occurrence O' and identifies valid combinations of subcategories of A, is responsible for, and O. These valid combinations - which we term "responsibility strings" - are grouped into four senses of responsibility: role-responsibility; causal responsibility; legal liability-responsibility; and moral responsibility. They are illustrated with two running examples, one involving a healthcare AI-based system and another the fatal collision of an AV with a pedestrian in Tempe, Arizona in 2018. The output of the paper is 81 responsibility strings. The aim is that these strings provide the vocabulary for people across disciplines to be clear and specific about the different ways that different actors are responsible for different occurrences within a complex event for which responsibility is sought, allowing for precise and targeted interdisciplinary normative deliberations.

Despite the significant research efforts on trajectory prediction for automated driving, limited work exists on assessing the prediction reliability. To address this limitation we propose an approach that covers two sources of error, namely novel situations with out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and the complexity in in-distribution (ID) situations with uncertainty estimation. We introduce two modules next to an encoder-decoder network for trajectory prediction. Firstly, a Gaussian mixture model learns the probability density function of the ID encoder features during training, and then it is used to detect the OOD samples in regions of the feature space with low likelihood. Secondly, an error regression network is applied to the encoder, which learns to estimate the trajectory prediction error in supervised training. During inference, the estimated prediction error is used as the uncertainty. In our experiments, the combination of both modules outperforms the prior work in OOD detection and uncertainty estimation, on the Shifts robust trajectory prediction dataset by $2.8 \%$ and $10.1 \%$, respectively. The code is publicly available.

Disordered many-body systems exhibit a wide range of emergent phenomena across different scales. These complex behaviors can be utilized for various information processing tasks such as error correction, learning, and optimization. Despite the empirical success of utilizing these systems for intelligent tasks, the underlying principles that govern their emergent intelligent behaviors remain largely unknown. In this thesis, we aim to characterize such emergent intelligence in disordered systems through statistical physics. We chart a roadmap for our efforts in this thesis based on two axes: learning mechanisms (long-term memory vs. working memory) and learning dynamics (artificial vs. natural). Throughout our journey, we uncover relationships between learning mechanisms and physical dynamics that could serve as guiding principles for designing intelligent systems. We hope that our investigation into the emergent intelligence of seemingly disparate learning systems can expand our current understanding of intelligence beyond neural systems and uncover a wider range of computational substrates suitable for AI applications.

Single-cell data integration can provide a comprehensive molecular view of cells, and many algorithms have been developed to remove unwanted technical or biological variations and integrate heterogeneous single-cell datasets. Despite their wide usage, existing methods suffer from several fundamental limitations. In particular, we lack a rigorous statistical test for whether two high-dimensional single-cell datasets are alignable (and therefore should even be aligned). Moreover, popular methods can substantially distort the data during alignment, making the aligned data and downstream analysis difficult to interpret. To overcome these limitations, we present a spectral manifold alignment and inference (SMAI) framework, which enables principled and interpretable alignability testing and structure-preserving integration of single-cell data. SMAI provides a statistical test to robustly determine the alignability between datasets to avoid misleading inference, and is justified by high-dimensional statistical theory. On a diverse range of real and simulated benchmark datasets, it outperforms commonly used alignment methods. Moreover, we show that SMAI improves various downstream analyses such as identification of differentially expressed genes and imputation of single-cell spatial transcriptomics, providing further biological insights. SMAI's interpretability also enables quantification and a deeper understanding of the sources of technical confounders in single-cell data.