Despite the significant research efforts on trajectory prediction for automated driving, limited work exists on assessing the prediction reliability. To address this limitation we propose an approach that covers two sources of error, namely novel situations with out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and the complexity in in-distribution (ID) situations with uncertainty estimation. We introduce two modules next to an encoder-decoder network for trajectory prediction. Firstly, a Gaussian mixture model learns the probability density function of the ID encoder features during training, and then it is used to detect the OOD samples in regions of the feature space with low likelihood. Secondly, an error regression network is applied to the encoder, which learns to estimate the trajectory prediction error in supervised training. During inference, the estimated prediction error is used as the uncertainty. In our experiments, the combination of both modules outperforms the prior work in OOD detection and uncertainty estimation, on the Shifts robust trajectory prediction dataset by $2.8 \%$ and $10.1 \%$, respectively. The code is publicly available.

Disordered many-body systems exhibit a wide range of emergent phenomena across different scales. These complex behaviors can be utilized for various information processing tasks such as error correction, learning, and optimization. Despite the empirical success of utilizing these systems for intelligent tasks, the underlying principles that govern their emergent intelligent behaviors remain largely unknown. In this thesis, we aim to characterize such emergent intelligence in disordered systems through statistical physics. We chart a roadmap for our efforts in this thesis based on two axes: learning mechanisms (long-term memory vs. working memory) and learning dynamics (artificial vs. natural). Throughout our journey, we uncover relationships between learning mechanisms and physical dynamics that could serve as guiding principles for designing intelligent systems. We hope that our investigation into the emergent intelligence of seemingly disparate learning systems can expand our current understanding of intelligence beyond neural systems and uncover a wider range of computational substrates suitable for AI applications.

Single-cell data integration can provide a comprehensive molecular view of cells, and many algorithms have been developed to remove unwanted technical or biological variations and integrate heterogeneous single-cell datasets. Despite their wide usage, existing methods suffer from several fundamental limitations. In particular, we lack a rigorous statistical test for whether two high-dimensional single-cell datasets are alignable (and therefore should even be aligned). Moreover, popular methods can substantially distort the data during alignment, making the aligned data and downstream analysis difficult to interpret. To overcome these limitations, we present a spectral manifold alignment and inference (SMAI) framework, which enables principled and interpretable alignability testing and structure-preserving integration of single-cell data. SMAI provides a statistical test to robustly determine the alignability between datasets to avoid misleading inference, and is justified by high-dimensional statistical theory. On a diverse range of real and simulated benchmark datasets, it outperforms commonly used alignment methods. Moreover, we show that SMAI improves various downstream analyses such as identification of differentially expressed genes and imputation of single-cell spatial transcriptomics, providing further biological insights. SMAI's interpretability also enables quantification and a deeper understanding of the sources of technical confounders in single-cell data.

Deep reinforcement learning algorithms (DRL) are increasingly being used in safety-critical systems. Ensuring the safety of DRL agents is a critical concern in such contexts. However, relying solely on testing is not sufficient to ensure safety as it does not offer guarantees. Building safety monitors is one solution to alleviate this challenge. This paper proposes SMARLA, a machine learning-based safety monitoring approach designed for DRL agents. For practical reasons, SMARLA is designed to be black-box (as it does not require access to the internals of the agent) and leverages state abstraction to reduce the state space and thus facilitate the learning of safety violation prediction models from agent's states. We validated SMARLA on two well-known RL case studies. Empirical analysis reveals that SMARLA achieves accurate violation prediction with a low false positive rate, and can predict safety violations at an early stage, approximately halfway through the agent's execution before violations occur.

Parkinson's disease (PD) diagnosis remains challenging due to lacking a reliable biomarker and limited access to clinical care. In this study, we present an analysis of the largest video dataset containing micro-expressions to screen for PD. We collected 3,871 videos from 1,059 unique participants, including 256 self-reported PD patients. The recordings are from diverse sources encompassing participants' homes across multiple countries, a clinic, and a PD care facility in the US. Leveraging facial landmarks and action units, we extracted features relevant to Hypomimia, a prominent symptom of PD characterized by reduced facial expressions. An ensemble of AI models trained on these features achieved an accuracy of 89.7% and an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) of 89.3% while being free from detectable bias across population subgroups based on sex and ethnicity on held-out data. Further analysis reveals that features from the smiling videos alone lead to comparable performance, even on two external test sets the model has never seen during training, suggesting the potential for PD risk assessment from smiling selfie videos.

This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach for detecting the exploitation of vulnerabilities in the wild by monitoring underground hacking forums. The increasing volume of posts discussing exploitation in the wild calls for an automatic approach to process threads and posts that will eventually trigger alarms depending on their content. To illustrate the proposed system, we use the CrimeBB dataset, which contains data scraped from multiple underground forums, and develop a supervised machine learning model that can filter threads citing CVEs and label them as Proof-of-Concept, Weaponization, or Exploitation. Leveraging random forests, we indicate that accuracy, precision and recall above 0.99 are attainable for the classification task. Additionally, we provide insights into the difference in nature between weaponization and exploitation, e.g., interpreting the output of a decision tree, and analyze the profits and other aspects related to the hacking communities. Overall, our work sheds insight into the exploitation of vulnerabilities in the wild and can be used to provide additional ground truth to models such as EPSS and Expected Exploitability.

Capturing global contextual information plays a critical role in breast ultrasound (BUS) image classification. Although convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated reliable performance in tumor classification, they have inherent limitations for modeling global and long-range dependencies due to the localized nature of convolution operations. Vision Transformers have an improved capability of capturing global contextual information but may distort the local image patterns due to the tokenization operations. In this study, we proposed a hybrid multitask deep neural network called Hybrid-MT-ESTAN, designed to perform BUS tumor classification and segmentation using a hybrid architecture composed of CNNs and Swin Transformer components. The proposed approach was compared to nine BUS classification methods and evaluated using seven quantitative metrics on a dataset of 3,320 BUS images. The results indicate that Hybrid-MT-ESTAN achieved the highest accuracy, sensitivity, and F1 score of 82.7%, 86.4%, and 86.0%, respectively.

Bias in applications of machine learning (ML) to healthcare is usually attributed to unrepresentative or incomplete data, or to underlying health disparities. This article identifies a more pervasive source of bias that affects the clinical utility of ML-enabled prediction tools: target specification bias. Target specification bias arises when the operationalization of the target variable does not match its definition by decision makers. The mismatch is often subtle, and stems from the fact that decision makers are typically interested in predicting the outcomes of counterfactual, rather than actual, healthcare scenarios. Target specification bias persists independently of data limitations and health disparities. When left uncorrected, it gives rise to an overestimation of predictive accuracy, to inefficient utilization of medical resources, and to suboptimal decisions that can harm patients. Recent work in metrology - the science of measurement - suggests ways of counteracting target specification bias and avoiding its harmful consequences.

This paper presents an experimental study on the application of quaternions in several machine learning algorithms. Quaternion is a mathematical representation of rotation in three-dimensional space, which can be used to represent complex data transformations. In this study, we explore the use of quaternions to represent and classify rotation data, using randomly generated quaternion data and corresponding labels, converting quaternions to rotation matrices, and using them as input features. Based on quaternions and multiple machine learning algorithms, it has shown higher accuracy and significantly improved performance in prediction tasks. Overall, this study provides an empirical basis for exploiting quaternions for machine learning tasks.

The current work investigates the capability of Large language models (LLMs) that are explicitly trained on large corpuses of medical knowledge (Med-PaLM 2) to predict psychiatric functioning from patient interviews and clinical descriptions without being trained to do so. To assess this, n = 145 depression and n =115 PTSD assessments and n = 46 clinical case studies across high prevalence/high comorbidity disorders (Depressive, Anxiety, Psychotic, trauma and stress, Addictive disorders) were analyzed using prompts to extract estimated clinical scores and diagnoses. Results demonstrate that Med-PaLM 2 is capable of assessing psychiatric functioning across a range of psychiatric conditions with the strongest performance being the prediction of depression scores based on standardized assessments (Accuracy range= 0.80 - 0.84) which were statistically indistinguishable from human clinical raters t(1,144) = 1.20; p = 0.23. Results show the potential for general clinical language models to flexibly predict psychiatric risk based on free descriptions of functioning from both patients and clinicians.