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 Performance Analysis


Robust low-rank estimation with multiple binary responses using pairwise AUC loss

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multiple binary responses arise in many modern data-analytic problems. Although fitting separate logistic regressions for each response is computationally attractive, it ignores shared structure and can be statistically inefficient, especially in high-dimensional and class-imbalanced regimes. Low-rank models offer a natural way to encode latent dependence across tasks, but existing methods for binary data are largely likelihood-based and focus on pointwise classification rather than ranking performance. In this work, we propose a unified framework for learning with multiple binary responses that directly targets discrimination by minimizing a surrogate loss for the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The method aggregates pairwise AUC surrogate losses across responses while imposing a low-rank constraint on the coefficient matrix to exploit shared structure. We develop a scalable projected gradient descent algorithm based on truncated singular value decomposition. Exploiting the fact that the pairwise loss depends only on differences of linear predictors, we simplify computation and analysis. We establish non-asymptotic convergence guarantees, showing that under suitable regularity conditions, leading to linear convergence up to the minimax-optimal statistical precision. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method is robust in challenging settings such as label switching and data contamination and consistently outperforms likelihood-based approaches.


Detecting LLM-Generated Text with Performance Guarantees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok have been deeply integrated into our daily life. They now support a wide range of tasks -- from dialogue and email drafting to assisting with teaching and coding, serving as search engines, and much more. However, their ability to produce highly human-like text raises serious concerns, including the spread of fake news, the generation of misleading governmental reports, and academic misconduct. To address this practical problem, we train a classifier to determine whether a piece of text is authored by an LLM or a human. Our detector is deployed on an online CPU-based platform https://huggingface.co/spaces/stats-powered-ai/StatDetectLLM, and contains three novelties over existing detectors: (i) it does not rely on auxiliary information, such as watermarks or knowledge of the specific LLM used to generate the text; (ii) it more effectively distinguishes between human- and LLM-authored text; and (iii) it enables statistical inference, which is largely absent in the current literature. Empirically, our classifier achieves higher classification accuracy compared to existing detectors, while maintaining type-I error control, high statistical power, and computational efficiency.


Multi-task Modeling for Engineering Applications with Sparse Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern engineering and scientific workflows frequently require simultaneous prediction across related tasks and fidelity levels [1-6]. In such contexts, some outputs are scarce and expensive to obtain, while others are cheaper and more abundant. Multi-task Gaussian processes (MTGPs), also known as multi-output Gaussian processes, offer a principled Bayesian framework to exploit inter-task correlations, enabling knowledge sharing that improves predictive accuracy and reduces the demand for large high-fidelity datasets [7-9]. Over decades of development, MTGPs have been applied across diverse domains, including time series forecasting, multitask optimization, and multifidelity classification, demonstrating their broad utility wherever data cost asymmetries and cross-task dependencies are present [10-16]. The central motivation for MTGPs is to leverage dependencies among related tasks to enhance predictive quality when high-fidelity information is limited [17]. For example, predicting an airfoil's lift coefficient from limited, expensive high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations can benefit from correlating with sufficient low-fidelity simulations [3]. Recent work in joint multi-objective and multifidelity optimization has also utilized MT - GPs to balance exploration and exploitation across tasks, improving predictive performance and decision-making by explicitly modeling relationships among outputs and fidelities [12].


Multi-Group Quadratic Discriminant Analysis via Projection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Multi-group classification arises in many prediction and decision-making problems, including applications in epidemiology, genomics, finance, and image recognition. Although classification methods have advanced considerably, much of the literature focuses on binary problems, and available extensions often provide limited flexibility for multi-group settings. Recent work has extended linear discriminant analysis to multiple groups, but more general methods are still needed to handle complex structures such as nonlinear decision boundaries and group-specific covariance patterns. We develop Multi-Group Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (MGQDA), a method for multi-group classification built on quadratic discriminant analysis. MGQDA projects high-dimensional predictors onto a lower-dimensional subspace, which enables accurate classification while capturing nonlinearity and heterogeneity in group-specific covariance structures. We derive theoretical guarantees, including variable selection consistency, to support the reliability of the procedure. In simulations and a gene-expression application, MGQDA achieves competitive or improved predictive performance compared with existing methods while selecting group-specific informative variables, indicating its practical value for high-dimensional multi-group classification problems. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.


ROOFS: RObust biOmarker Feature Selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Feature selection (FS) is essential for biomarker discovery and in the analysis of biomedical datasets. However, challenges such as high-dimensional feature space, low sample size, multicollinearity, and missing values make FS non-trivial. Moreover, FS performances vary across datasets and predictive tasks. We propose roofs, a Python package available at https://gitlab.inria.fr/compo/roofs, designed to help researchers in the choice of FS method adapted to their problem. Roofs benchmarks multiple FS methods on the user's data and generates reports that summarize a comprehensive set of evaluation metrics, including downstream predictive performance estimated using optimism correction, stability, reliability of individual features, and true positive and false positive rates assessed on semi-synthetic data with a simulated outcome. We demonstrate the utility of roofs on data from the PIONeeR clinical trial, aimed at identifying predictors of resistance to anti-PD-(L)1 immunotherapy in lung cancer. The PIONeeR dataset contained 374 multi-source blood and tumor biomarkers from 435 patients. A reduced subset of 214 features was obtained through iterative variance inflation factor pre-filtering. Of the 34 FS methods gathered in roofs, we evaluated 23 in combination with 11 classifiers (253 models in total) and identified a filter based on the union of Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate-adjusted p-values from t-test and logistic regression as the optimal approach, outperforming other methods including the widely used LASSO. We conclude that comprehensive benchmarking with roofs has the potential to improve the robustness and reproducibility of FS discoveries and increase the translational value of clinical models.


Aligned explanations in neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Feature attribution is the dominant paradigm for explaining deep neural networks. However, most existing methods only loosely reflect the model's prediction-making process, thereby merely white-painting the black box. We argue that explanatory alignment is a key aspect of trustworthiness in prediction tasks: explanations must be directly linked to predictions, rather than serving as post-hoc rationalizations. We present model readability as a design principle enabling alignment, and PiNets as a modeling framework to pursue it in a deep learning context. PiNets are pseudo-linear networks that produce instance-wise linear predictions in an arbitrary feature space, making them linearly readable. We illustrate their use on image classification and segmentation tasks, demonstrating how PiNets produce explanations that are faithful across multiple criteria in addition to alignment.


A Theoretical and Empirical Taxonomy of Imbalance in Binary Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Class imbalance significantly degrades classification performance, yet its effects are rarely analyzed from a unified theoretical perspective. We propose a principled framework based on three fundamental scales: the imbalance coefficient $η$, the sample--dimension ratio $κ$, and the intrinsic separability $Δ$. Starting from the Gaussian Bayes classifier, we derive closed-form Bayes errors and show how imbalance shifts the discriminant boundary, yielding a deterioration slope that predicts four regimes: Normal, Mild, Extreme, and Catastrophic. Using a balanced high-dimensional genomic dataset, we vary only $η$ while keeping $κ$ and $Δ$ fixed. Across parametric and non-parametric models, empirical degradation closely follows theoretical predictions: minority Recall collapses once $\log(η)$ exceeds $Δ\sqrtκ$, Precision increases asymmetrically, and F1-score and PR-AUC decline in line with the predicted regimes. These results show that the triplet $(η,κ,Δ)$ provides a model-agnostic, geometrically grounded explanation of imbalance-induced deterioration.


A Multilayered Approach to Classifying Customer Responsiveness and Credit Risk

arXiv.org Machine Learning

AB S TRACT This study evaluates the performance of various classifiers in three distinct models: r esponse, r isk, and r esponse - r isk, concerning credit card mail campaigns and default prediction. In the r esponse model, the Extra Trees classifier demonstrates the highest recall level (79.1%), emphasizing its effectiveness in identifying potential responders to targeted credit card offers. Conversely, in the r isk model, the Random Forest classifier exhibits remarkable specificity of 84.1%, crucial for identifying customers least likely to default. Furthermore, in the multi - class r esponse - r isk model, the Random Forest classifier achieve s the highest accuracy (83.2%), indicating its efficacy in discerning both potential responders to credit card mail campaign and low - risk credit card users . In this study, we optimized various performance metrics to solve a specific credit risk and mail responsiveness business problem.


Sparse Convex Biclustering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Biclustering is an essential unsupervised machine learning technique for simultaneously clustering rows and columns of a data matrix, with widespread applications in genomics, transcriptomics, and other high-dimensional omics data. Despite its importance, existing biclustering methods struggle to meet the demands of modern large-scale datasets. The challenges stem from the accumulation of noise in high-dimensional features, the limitations of non-convex optimization formulations, and the computational complexity of identifying meaningful biclusters. These issues often result in reduced accuracy and stability as the size of the dataset increases. To overcome these challenges, we propose Sparse Convex Biclustering (SpaCoBi), a novel method that penalizes noise during the biclustering process to improve both accuracy and robustness. By adopting a convex optimization framework and introducing a stability-based tuning criterion, SpaCoBi achieves an optimal balance between cluster fidelity and sparsity. Comprehensive numerical studies, including simulations and an application to mouse olfactory bulb data, demonstrate that SpaCoBi significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy. These results highlight SpaCoBi as a robust and efficient solution for biclustering in high-dimensional and large-scale datasets.


Distribution Matching for Graph Quantification Under Structural Covariate Shift

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graphs are commonly used in machine learning to model relationships between instances. Consider the task of predicting the political preferences of users in a social network; to solve this task one should consider, both, the features of each individual user and the relationships between them. However, oftentimes one is not interested in the label of a single instance but rather in the distribution of labels over a set of instances; e.g., when predicting the political preferences of users, the overall prevalence of a given opinion might be of higher interest than the opinion of a specific person. This label prevalence estimation task is commonly referred to as quantification learning (QL). Current QL methods for tabular data are typically based on the so-called prior probability shift (PPS) assumption which states that the label-conditional instance distributions should remain equal across the training and test data. In the graph setting, PPS generally does not hold if the shift between training and test data is structural, i.e., if the training data comes from a different region of the graph than the test data. To address such structural shifts, an importance sampling variant of the popular adjusted count quantification approach has previously been proposed. In this work, we extend the idea of structural importance sampling to the state-of-the-art KDEy quantification approach. We show that our proposed method adapts to structural shifts and outperforms standard quantification approaches.