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Accurate prediction of international trade flows: Leveraging knowledge graphs and their embeddings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As a result, KR is critical to offering a simple strategy for defining relevant and contextual information within a finite number of facts from a specific domain of interest; these facts are referred to as a knowledge base (KB). In the past years, Knowledge Graph (KG), as a form of KR, has gained attention because it provides a contextual, natural, and human-like form of representing knowledge in specific domains and common sense. KG is formed in statements called triples on the T = (h, r, t) form, where h (head) and t (tail) represent objects in real life, and r, the relation is the connection between those entities. Internet companies like Google, Wikipedia, and Facebook have found a simple but powerful unified tool in the KG field to describe their multi-structured and multi-dimensional knowledge base, capturing user data to transform it into vast KBs [3]. The KG approach is particularly relevant to studying international trade, a significant cornerstone of economic and social development in the globalized economy [4, 5]. International trade is complex and interconnected, with multiple entities (commodities, companies, and countries) interacting in multiple ways [6]. This method helps to understand those complex interactions in a structured and intuitive way. In international economics, the gravity model, a fundamental part of the current method, is widely used to predict trade relations between entities based on factors like size (GDP, population) and distance or other factors [7, 8, 9].


Causal Feature Selection via Transfer Entropy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning algorithms are designed to capture complex relationships between features. In this context, the high dimensionality of data often results in poor model performance, with the risk of overfitting. Feature selection, the process of selecting a subset of relevant and non-redundant features, is, therefore, an essential step to mitigate these issues. However, classical feature selection approaches do not inspect the causal relationship between selected features and target, which can lead to misleading results in real-world applications. Causal discovery, instead, aims to identify causal relationships between features with observational data. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology at the intersection between feature selection and causal discovery, focusing on time series. We introduce a new causal feature selection approach that relies on the forward and backward feature selection procedures and leverages transfer entropy to estimate the causal flow of information from the features to the target in time series. Our approach enables the selection of features not only in terms of mere model performance but also captures the causal information flow. In this context, we provide theoretical guarantees on the regression and classification errors for both the exact and the finite-sample cases. Finally, we present numerical validations on synthetic and real-world regression problems, showing results competitive w.r.t. the considered baselines.


Fast Graph Condensation with Structure-based Neural Tangent Kernel

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid development of Internet technology has given rise to a vast amount of graph-structured data. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), as an effective method for various graph mining tasks, incurs substantial computational resource costs when dealing with large-scale graph data. A data-centric manner solution is proposed to condense the large graph dataset into a smaller one without sacrificing the predictive performance of GNNs. However, existing efforts condense graph-structured data through a computational intensive bi-level optimization architecture also suffer from massive computation costs. In this paper, we propose reforming the graph condensation problem as a Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) task instead of iteratively training GNNs in the inner loop of bi-level optimization. More specifically, We propose a novel dataset condensation framework (GC-SNTK) for graph-structured data, where a Structure-based Neural Tangent Kernel (SNTK) is developed to capture the topology of graph and serves as the kernel function in KRR paradigm. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model in accelerating graph condensation while maintaining high prediction performance.


Why Do Students Drop Out? University Dropout Prediction and Associated Factor Analysis Using Machine Learning Techniques

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graduation and dropout rates have always been a serious consideration for educational institutions and students. High dropout rates negatively impact both the lives of individual students and institutions. To address this problem, this study examined university dropout prediction using academic, demographic, socioeconomic, and macroeconomic data types. Additionally, we performed associated factor analysis to analyze which type of data would be most influential on the performance of machine learning models in predicting graduation and dropout status. These features were used to train four binary classifiers to determine if students would graduate or drop out. The overall performance of the classifiers in predicting dropout status had an average ROC-AUC score of 0.935. The data type most influential to the model performance was found to be academic data, with the average ROC-AUC score dropping from 0.935 to 0.811 when excluding all academic-related features from the data set. Preliminary results indicate that a correlation does exist between data types and dropout status.


CLEME: Debiasing Multi-reference Evaluation for Grammatical Error Correction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Evaluating the performance of Grammatical Error Correction (GEC) systems is a challenging task due to its subjectivity. Designing an evaluation metric that is as objective as possible is crucial to the development of GEC task. However, mainstream evaluation metrics, i.e., reference-based metrics, introduce bias into the multi-reference evaluation by extracting edits without considering the presence of multiple references. To overcome this issue, we propose Chunk-LEvel Multi-reference Evaluation (CLEME), designed to evaluate GEC systems in the multi-reference evaluation setting. CLEME builds chunk sequences with consistent boundaries for the source, the hypothesis and references, thus eliminating the bias caused by inconsistent edit boundaries. Furthermore, we observe the consistent boundary could also act as the boundary of grammatical errors, based on which the F$_{0.5}$ score is then computed following the correction independence assumption. We conduct experiments on six English reference sets based on the CoNLL-2014 shared task. Extensive experiments and detailed analyses demonstrate the correctness of our discovery and the effectiveness of CLEME. Further analysis reveals that CLEME is robust to evaluate GEC systems across reference sets with varying numbers of references and annotation style.


Object Detection in Aerial Images in Scarce Data Regimes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most contributions on Few-Shot Object Detection (FSOD) evaluate their methods on natural images only, yet the transferability of the announced performance is not guaranteed for applications on other kinds of images. We demonstrate this with an in-depth analysis of existing FSOD methods on aerial images and observed a large performance gap compared to natural images. Small objects, more numerous in aerial images, are the cause for the apparent performance gap between natural and aerial images. As a consequence, we improve FSOD performance on small objects with a carefully designed attention mechanism. In addition, we also propose a scale-adaptive box similarity criterion, that improves the training and evaluation of FSOD methods, particularly for small objects. We also contribute to generic FSOD with two distinct approaches based on metric learning and fine-tuning. Impressive results are achieved with the fine-tuning method, which encourages tackling more complex scenarios such as Cross-Domain FSOD. We conduct preliminary experiments in this direction and obtain promising results. Finally, we address the deployment of the detection models inside COSE's systems. Detection must be done in real-time in extremely large images (more than 100 megapixels), with limited computation power. Leveraging existing optimization tools such as TensorRT, we successfully tackle this engineering challenge.


Optimizing Layerwise Polynomial Approximation for Efficient Private Inference on Fully Homomorphic Encryption: A Dynamic Programming Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent research has explored the implementation of privacy-preserving deep neural networks solely using fully homomorphic encryption. However, its practicality has been limited because of prolonged inference times. When using a pre-trained model without retraining, a major factor contributing to these prolonged inference times is the high-degree polynomial approximation of activation functions such as the ReLU function. The high-degree approximation consumes a substantial amount of homomorphic computational resources, resulting in slower inference. Unlike the previous works approximating activation functions uniformly and conservatively, this paper presents a \emph{layerwise} degree optimization of activation functions to aggressively reduce the inference time while maintaining classification accuracy by taking into account the characteristics of each layer. Instead of the minimax approximation commonly used in state-of-the-art private inference models, we employ the weighted least squares approximation method with the input distributions of activation functions. Then, we obtain the layerwise optimized degrees for activation functions through the \emph{dynamic programming} algorithm, considering how each layer's approximation error affects the classification accuracy of the deep neural network. Furthermore, we propose modulating the ciphertext moduli-chain layerwise to reduce the inference time. By these proposed layerwise optimization methods, we can reduce inference times for the ResNet-20 model and the ResNet-32 model by 3.44 times and 3.16 times, respectively, in comparison to the prior implementations employing uniform degree polynomials and a consistent ciphertext modulus.


Real-Fake: Effective Training Data Synthesis Through Distribution Matching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Synthetic training data has gained prominence in numerous learning tasks and scenarios, offering advantages such as dataset augmentation, generalization evaluation, and privacy preservation. Despite these benefits, the efficiency of synthetic data generated by current methodologies remains inferior when training advanced deep models exclusively, limiting its practical utility. To address this challenge, we analyze the principles underlying training data synthesis for supervised learning and elucidate a principled theoretical framework from the distribution-matching perspective that explicates the mechanisms governing synthesis efficacy. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our synthetic data across diverse image classification tasks, both as a replacement for and augmentation to real datasets, while also benefits challenging tasks such as out-of-distribution generalization and privacy preservation.


A White-Box False Positive Adversarial Attack Method on Contrastive Loss-Based Offline Handwritten Signature Verification Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we tackle the challenge of white-box false positive adversarial attacks on contrastive loss-based offline handwritten signature verification models. We propose a novel attack method that treats the attack as a style transfer between closely related but distinct writing styles. To guide the generation of deceptive images, we introduce two new loss functions that enhance the attack success rate by perturbing the Euclidean distance between the embedding vectors of the original and synthesized samples, while ensuring minimal perturbations by reducing the difference between the generated image and the original image. Our method demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in white-box attacks on contrastive loss-based offline handwritten signature verification models, as evidenced by our experiments. The key contributions of this paper include a novel false positive attack method, two new loss functions, effective style transfer in handwriting styles, and superior performance in white-box false positive attacks compared to other white-box attack methods.


Spectrum-Aware Adjustment: A New Debiasing Framework with Applications to Principal Component Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a new debiasing framework for high-dimensional linear regression that bypasses the restrictions on covariate distributions imposed by modern debiasing technology. We study the prevalent setting where the number of features and samples are both large and comparable. In this context, state-of-the-art debiasing technology uses a degrees-of-freedom correction to remove the shrinkage bias of regularized estimators and conduct inference. However, this method requires that the observed samples are i.i.d., the covariates follow a mean zero Gaussian distribution, and reliable covariance matrix estimates for observed features are available. This approach struggles when (i) covariates are non-Gaussian with heavy tails or asymmetric distributions, (ii) rows of the design exhibit heterogeneity or dependencies, and (iii) reliable feature covariance estimates are lacking. To address these, we develop a new strategy where the debiasing correction is a rescaled gradient descent step (suitably initialized) with step size determined by the spectrum of the sample covariance matrix. Unlike prior work, we assume that eigenvectors of this matrix are uniform draws from the orthogonal group. We show this assumption remains valid in diverse situations where traditional debiasing fails, including designs with complex row-column dependencies, heavy tails, asymmetric properties, and latent low-rank structures. We establish asymptotic normality of our proposed estimator (centered and scaled) under various convergence notions. Moreover, we develop a consistent estimator for its asymptotic variance. Lastly, we introduce a debiased Principal Components Regression (PCR) technique using our Spectrum-Aware approach. In varied simulations and real data experiments, we observe that our method outperforms degrees-of-freedom debiasing by a margin.