This paper explores the application of Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques in cryptocurrency price forecasting, specifically Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Focusing on news and social media data, primarily from Twitter and Reddit, we analyse the influence of public sentiment on cryptocurrency valuations using advanced deep learning NLP methods. Alongside conventional price regression, we treat cryptocurrency price forecasting as a classification problem. This includes both the prediction of price movements (up or down) and the identification of local extrema. We compare the performance of various ML models, both with and without NLP data integration. Our findings reveal that incorporating NLP data significantly enhances the forecasting performance of our models. We discover that pre-trained models, such as Twitter-RoBERTa and BART MNLI, are highly effective in capturing market sentiment, and that fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs) also yields substantial forecasting improvements. Notably, the BART MNLI zero-shot classification model shows considerable proficiency in extracting bullish and bearish signals from textual data. All of our models consistently generate profit across different validation scenarios, with no observed decline in profits or reduction in the impact of NLP data over time. The study highlights the potential of text analysis in improving financial forecasts and demonstrates the effectiveness of various NLP techniques in capturing nuanced market sentiment.

Common regularization algorithms for linear regression, such as LASSO and Ridge regression, rely on a regularization hyperparameter that balances the tradeoff between minimizing the fitting error and the norm of the learned model coefficients. As this hyperparameter is scalar, it can be easily selected via random or grid search optimizing a cross-validation criterion. However, using a scalar hyperparameter limits the algorithm's flexibility and potential for better generalization. In this paper, we address the problem of linear regression with l2-regularization, where a different regularization hyperparameter is associated with each input variable. We optimize these hyperparameters using a gradient-based approach, wherein the gradient of a cross-validation criterion with respect to the regularization hyperparameters is computed analytically through matrix differential calculus. Additionally, we introduce two strategies tailored for sparse model learning problems aiming at reducing the risk of overfitting to the validation data. Numerical examples demonstrate that our multi-hyperparameter regularization approach outperforms LASSO, Ridge, and Elastic Net regression. Moreover, the analytical computation of the gradient proves to be more efficient in terms of computational time compared to automatic differentiation, especially when handling a large number of input variables. Application to the identification of over-parameterized Linear Parameter-Varying models is also presented.

Mutation validation (MV) is a recently proposed approach for model selection, garnering significant interest due to its unique characteristics and potential benefits compared to the widely used cross-validation (CV) method. In this study, we empirically compared MV and $k$-fold CV using benchmark and real-world datasets. By employing Bayesian tests, we compared generalization estimates yielding three posterior probabilities: practical equivalence, CV superiority, and MV superiority. We also evaluated the differences in the capacity of the selected models and computational efficiency. We found that both MV and CV select models with practically equivalent generalization performance across various machine learning algorithms and the majority of benchmark datasets. MV exhibited advantages in terms of selecting simpler models and lower computational costs. However, in some cases MV selected overly simplistic models leading to underfitting and showed instability in hyperparameter selection. These limitations of MV became more evident in the evaluation of a real-world neuroscientific task of predicting sex at birth using brain functional connectivity.

Given $n$ observations from two balanced classes, consider the task of labeling an additional $m$ inputs that are known to all belong to \emph{one} of the two classes. Special cases of this problem are well-known: with complete knowledge of class distributions ($n=\infty$) the problem is solved optimally by the likelihood-ratio test; when $m=1$ it corresponds to binary classification; and when $m\approx n$ it is equivalent to two-sample testing. The intermediate settings occur in the field of likelihood-free inference, where labeled samples are obtained by running forward simulations and the unlabeled sample is collected experimentally. In recent work it was discovered that there is a fundamental trade-off between $m$ and $n$: increasing the data sample $m$ reduces the amount $n$ of training/simulation data needed. In this work we (a) introduce a generalization where unlabeled samples come from a mixture of the two classes -- a case often encountered in practice; (b) study the minimax sample complexity for non-parametric classes of densities under \textit{maximum mean discrepancy} (MMD) separation; and (c) investigate the empirical performance of kernels parameterized by neural networks on two tasks: detection of the Higgs boson and detection of planted DDPM generated images amidst CIFAR-10 images. For both problems we confirm the existence of the theoretically predicted asymmetric $m$ vs $n$ trade-off.

Particle accelerators are complex and comprise thousands of components, with many pieces of equipment running at their peak power. Consequently, particle accelerators can fault and abort operations for numerous reasons. These faults impact the availability of particle accelerators during scheduled run-time and hamper the efficiency and the overall science output. To avoid these faults, we apply anomaly detection techniques to predict any unusual behavior and perform preemptive actions to improve the total availability of particle accelerators. Semi-supervised Machine Learning (ML) based anomaly detection approaches such as autoencoders and variational autoencoders are often used for such tasks. However, supervised ML techniques such as Siamese Neural Network (SNN) models can outperform unsupervised or semi-supervised approaches for anomaly detection by leveraging the label information. One of the challenges specific to anomaly detection for particle accelerators is the data's variability due to system configuration changes. To address this challenge, we employ Conditional Siamese Neural Network (CSNN) models and Conditional Variational Auto Encoder (CVAE) models to predict errant beam pulses at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) under different system configuration conditions and compare their performance. We demonstrate that CSNN outperforms CVAE in our application.

Understanding the semantics of relational tables is instrumental for automation in data exploration and preparation systems. A key source for understanding a table is the semantics of its columns. With the rise of deep learning, learned table representations are now available, which can be applied for semantic type detection and achieve good performance on benchmarks. Nevertheless, we observe a gap between this performance and its applicability in practice. In this paper, we propose AdaTyper to address one of the most critical deployment challenges: adaptation. AdaTyper uses weak-supervision to adapt a hybrid type predictor towards new semantic types and shifted data distributions at inference time, using minimal human feedback. The hybrid type predictor of AdaTyper combines rule-based methods and a light machine learning model for semantic column type detection. We evaluate the adaptation performance of AdaTyper on real-world database tables hand-annotated with semantic column types through crowdsourcing and find that the f1-score improves for new and existing types. AdaTyper approaches an average precision of 0.6 after only seeing 5 examples, significantly outperforming existing adaptation methods based on human-provided regular expressions or dictionaries.

Federated learning is a technique of decentralized machine learning. that allows multiple parties to collaborate and learn a shared model without sharing their raw data. Our paper proposes a federated learning framework for intrusion detection in Internet of Vehicles (IOVs) using the CIC-IDS 2017 dataset. The proposed framework employs SMOTE for handling class imbalance, outlier detection for identifying and removing abnormal observations, and hyperparameter tuning to optimize the model's performance. The authors evaluated the proposed framework using various performance metrics and demonstrated its effectiveness in detecting intrusions with other datasets (KDD-Cup 99 and UNSW- NB-15) and conventional classifiers. Furthermore, the proposed framework can protect sensitive data while achieving high intrusion detection performance.

We consider the problem of spectral clustering under group fairness constraints, where samples from each sensitive group are approximately proportionally represented in each cluster. Traditional fair spectral clustering (FSC) methods consist of two consecutive stages, i.e., performing fair spectral embedding on a given graph and conducting $k$means to obtain discrete cluster labels. However, in practice, the graph is usually unknown, and we need to construct the underlying graph from potentially noisy data, the quality of which inevitably affects subsequent fair clustering performance. Furthermore, performing FSC through separate steps breaks the connections among these steps, leading to suboptimal results. To this end, we first theoretically analyze the effect of the constructed graph on FSC. Motivated by the analysis, we propose a novel graph construction method with a node-adaptive graph filter to learn graphs from noisy data. Then, all independent stages of conventional FSC are integrated into a single objective function, forming an end-to-end framework that inputs raw data and outputs discrete cluster labels. An algorithm is developed to jointly and alternately update the variables in each stage. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on synthetic, benchmark, and real data, which show that our model is superior to state-of-the-art fair clustering methods.

In safety-critical domains such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis, the reliability of machine learning models is crucial. One significant challenge to reliability is concept drift, which can cause model deterioration over time. Traditionally, drift detectors rely on true labels, which are often scarce and costly. This study conducts a comprehensive empirical evaluation of using uncertainty values as substitutes for error rates in detecting drifts, aiming to alleviate the reliance on labeled post-deployment data. We examine five uncertainty estimation methods in conjunction with the ADWIN detector across seven real-world datasets. Our results reveal that while the SWAG method exhibits superior calibration, the overall accuracy in detecting drifts is not notably impacted by the choice of uncertainty estimation method, with even the most basic method demonstrating competitive performance. These findings offer valuable insights into the practical applicability of uncertainty-based drift detection in real-world, safety-critical applications.

Classifying patterns of known classes and rejecting ambiguous and novel (also called as out-of-distribution (OOD)) inputs are involved in open world pattern recognition. Deep neural network models usually excel in closed-set classification while performing poorly in rejecting OOD. To tackle this problem, numerous methods have been designed to perform open set recognition (OSR) or OOD rejection/detection tasks. Previous methods mostly take post-training score transformation or hybrid models to ensure low scores on OOD inputs while separating known classes. In this paper, we attempt to build a unified framework for building open set classifiers for both classification and OOD rejection. We formulate the open set recognition of $ K $-known-class as a $ (K + 1) $-class classification problem with model trained on known-class samples only. By decomposing the $ K $-class problem into $ K $ one-versus-all (OVA) binary classification tasks and binding some parameters, we show that combining the scores of OVA classifiers can give $ (K + 1) $-class posterior probabilities, which enables classification and OOD rejection in a unified framework. To maintain the closed-set classification accuracy of the OVA trained classifier, we propose a hybrid training strategy combining OVA loss and multi-class cross-entropy loss. We implement the OVA framework and hybrid training strategy on the recently proposed convolutional prototype network. Experiments on popular OSR and OOD detection datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework, using a single multi-class classifier, yields competitive performance in closed-set classification, OOD detection, and misclassification detection.