Deep Learning
ChatGPT gets you 80% there. The hard part is still yours
PCWorld advocates for using AI as a collaborative writing tool that provides critical feedback to improve drafts, rather than relying on it for complete rewrites. The article addresses growing concerns about AI job displacement, highlighting initiatives like Raise US that focus on worker retraining and strategic collaboration with AI. This approach matters because it helps writers and professionals enhance their skills while maintaining human creativity and job security in an AI-driven world. AI is making us fearful for our jobs, and rightly so. It's a snap to ask ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini to, say, write a news story about technology, source it, and publish it, all in a matter of seconds.
AI model used to generate complete models of proteins in motion
Many drug and antibody discovery pathways focus on intricately folded cell membrane proteins. When molecules of a drug candidate bind to these proteins, like a key going into a lock, they trigger chemical cascades that alter cellular behavior. Understanding how proteins fold and move is therefore essential for developing drugs that interact well with their targets. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a very useful tool to generate novel protein structures, but most systems - including Google DeepMind's AlphaFold - focus on producing static'snapshots' of proteins. Subtle rearrangements of atoms in structures called side chains, which influence a protein's interactions with other molecules, are not captured.
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How to Train Your LLM Web Agent: A Statistical Diagnosis
Large language model (LLM) agents for web interfaces have advanced rapidly, yet open-source systems still lag behind proprietary agents. Bridging this gap is key to enabling customizable, efficient, and privacy-preserving agents. Two challenges hinder progress: the reproducibility issues in RL and LLM agent training, where results often depend on sensitive factors like seeds and decoding parameters, and the focus of prior work on single-step tasks, overlooking the complexities of web-based, multi-step decision-making. We address these gaps by providing a statistically driven study of training LLM agents for web tasks. Our two-stage pipeline combines imitation learning from a Llama 3.3 70B teacher with on-policy fine-tuning via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) on a Llama 3.1 8B student. Through 240 configuration sweeps and rigorous bootstrapping, we chart the first compute allocation curve for open-source LLM web agents. Our findings show that dedicating one-third of compute to teacher traces and the rest to RL improves MiniWoB++ success by 6 points and closes 60\% of the gap to GPT-4o on WorkArena, while cutting GPU costs by 45\%. We introduce a principled hyperparameter sensitivity analysis, offering actionable guidelines for robust and cost-effective agent training.
The Geometry of Updates: Fisher Alignment at Vocabulary Scale
Training-free source selection for LLM families with shared vocabularies arises in scientific string domains such as SMILES, protein, and genomic sequences, where candidate corpora share a tokenizer but differ in prediction targets. This creates an activation-dark regime: representation-similarity metrics can be uninformative without assumptions about label-conditioned error geometry, while classical update-geometry metrics are computationally prohibitive at vocabulary scale. We show that, in a shared-output head setting, representation metrics (e.g., CKA) are non-identifiable for transfer; models can share identical representations yet have orthogonal head updates. The key identity is that head Fisher alignment is exactly a cosine between kernel mean embeddings in the joint activation-error space, exposing activation, error, and coupling factors rather than requiring a materialized Fisher matrix. FisherSketch estimates this cosine directly in a single streaming pass, making K=128,256 head Fisher alignment practical with a 16 KB task signature (m=4096) and a 192 KB per-task streaming state, small enough to store next to a model hash, but encoding transfer-relevant update structure. Beyond source selection, the same signatures and marginals provide a diagnostic instrument for studying whether LLM task similarity is driven by activations, errors, or their coupling; shared-parameter and internal-layer validations, together with Llama-3.1-8B verbalizer-shift experiments, show that FisherSketch remains informative when activation similarity cannot distinguish tasks.
Data-Driven Duration Management -- Term Structure Forecasting Using Machine Learning
Lausser, Tobias, Vuolo, Joao Eduardo, Zagst, Rudi
This paper compares different methods for forecasting the term structure of U.S. and European zero-coupon government bonds using both traditional econometric and Machine Learning (ML) approaches. We compare classical models (e.g., Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA)) with different Neural Network (NN) architectures, including those inspired by the classical models, on the U.S. Treasury market and bonds issued by the European Central Bank (ECB). To enhance predictive performance, macroeconomic variables are incorporated. The findings for both markets are separately analyzed and compared. To this end, we propose a robust model evaluation framework combining statistical accuracy metrics - such as RMSE, MAE, and directional accuracy - with the economic relevance of a quantitative bond trading strategy. Results show that NNs consistently outperform traditional models in both forecasting accuracy and portfolio performance. For the U.S., the most effective approach is a direct-forecasting NN that incorporates DNS factors to reduce the dimensionality of zero-rate data and an Autoencoder (AE) to extract macroeconomic features, while for Europe, the optimal model is a factor-based NN using PCA-derived zero-rate factors without the integration of macroeconomic variables. Overall, the paper demonstrates how combining traditional modeling approaches with modern ML techniques and evaluation can improve yield curve forecasts and support applications in fixed-income portfolio construction.
Learning Probabilistic Filters with Strictly Proper Scoring Rules
Bach, Eviatar, Baptista, Ricardo, Brรถcker, Jochen, Chen, Bohan, Stuart, Andrew
Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems seeks to infer the evolving conditional distribution of the state of a dynamical system, given observations, in an online fashion. This Bayesian filtering distribution is the natural object for uncertainty quantification, but it is rarely available as a supervised learning target. However, one can often use the forecast model to generate synthetic system trajectories, along with synthetic observations. We introduce the proper scoring ensemble filter (PSEF), an ensemble data assimilation method based on training an analysis map to approximate the filtering distribution using only synthetic state--observation trajectories. The analysis step is represented as a permutation-invariant, transformer-based map that takes as input a forecast ensemble and observations, producing an analysis ensemble. Training is based on strictly proper scoring rules -- with the energy score used in our implementation -- so that probabilistic accuracy is rewarded over the whole probability distribution. We prove that, under a realizability assumption, the population objective is minimized by the true Bayesian filtering distribution. We also derive the finite-ensemble empirical objective used in training and relate its single state--observation trajectory form to the population objective, using a mean-field consistency argument. Numerical experiments show that the learned filter accurately approximates challenging filtering distributions, including nonlinear, non-Gaussian, and multi-modal posteriors, and achieves stronger performance in data assimilation tasks than classical methods or learning-based methods with mean-squared-error objectives. For close-to-Gaussian problems, learning a correction to the EnKF is the best approach, while for highly non-Gaussian problems an end-to-end approach that discards this inductive bias is superior.
Escaping Iterative Parameter-Space Noise: Differentially Private Learning with a Hypernetwork
Nishikawa, Naoki, Takakura, Shokichi, Hasegawa, Satoshi
Differentially private (DP) training of neural networks is often hindered by the large amount of noise required by gradient-based methods such as DP-SGD, which repeatedly inject high-dimensional noise in parameter space throughout training. In this paper, we propose a new framework for DP learning that avoids iterative optimization in parameter space. Instead of updating the target model using privatized gradients, we employ a hypernetwork trained on public datasets to map a private dataset to the parameters of the target model. Specifically, each example is embedded into a low-dimensional representation, the embeddings are aggregated and perturbed to obtain a DP dataset embedding, and the hypernetwork generates the target model parameters from this noisy embedding. Because privacy noise is injected only once into a low-dimensional dataset representation, our approach can significantly reduce the adverse effect of noise. We theoretically show in a synthetic setting that, under a fixed privacy budget, models produced by our approach achieve higher utility than those trained with DP-SGD. Moreover, we apply our approach to LoRA fine-tuning of diffusion models and show that it achieves lower FID than LoRA models trained with DP-SGD and other public-data-guided methods.
Representation Costs in Data Science: Foundations and the Quasi-Banach Spaces of Deep Neural Networks
We develop a general framework for analyzing representation costs of parametric data-fitting methods through their parameter-space regularizers. From this abstract perspective, we define representation costs for arbitrary parametric models and reveal their induced (native) function spaces. This unifies recent function-space views of data-fitting methods. We also prove that many natural results hold in this abstract setting, including representer theorems for parametric methods on their native spaces. The framework also rigorously connects parametric methods with their equivalent nonparametric descriptions under sufficient overparameterization. Classical methods and their native spaces, such as kernel methods / reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, wavelets / Besov spaces, and shallow neural networks / variation spaces emerge as special cases of our abstract framework. A byproduct of "axiomatizing" the study of representation costs is that we also immediately obtain new results for deep neural networks: For depth-$L$ feedforward ReLU networks, their induced native spaces are $p$-normable quasi-Banach spaces with $p = 2/L$. This reveals that the inductive bias of deep neural networks (as given by the representation cost) cannot be captured by norms for depths $L > 2$.