With the rapidly improving reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), there is also a rising demand to use them in a wide variety of domains. This brings about the need to carefully evaluate the limits of the capabilities of these models with various tests and benchmarks. Graph structures are ubiquitous in real-world data, and are often used to represent and analyze relationship patterns within data. Many benchmarks have already been proposed in the graph literature to test the reasoning ability of LLMs to follow and execute graph algorithms. However, due to the limited context length of LLMs, these benchmarks consist of very small graphs. In real-world data, the size of graphs can be significantly larger, and in many cases, not fully accessible. In this paper, we examine a class of problems that arises with very large graphs having limited accessibility. We propose a large graph benchmark dataset, EstGraph, and introduce four distinct tasks designed to estimate large graph properties. We evaluate the reasoning abilities of LLMs on these tasks using a wide variety of graph datasets. In addition, we provide task-specific prompt constructions based on random walk sampling of large graphs (up to millions of nodes) that effectively convey sufficient information to LLMs within the limits of context length.

Time series forecasting models often exhibit inconsistent performance across datasets with varying statistical and structural properties. Despite the wide range of available forecasting techniques, it remains unclear whether model selection can be reliably guided by simple data characteristics. This paper investigates why rule-based model selection fails in time series forecasting by analyzing the relationship between data-regime descriptors and model performance. A descriptor-based framework is introduced to characterize time series using measurable properties, including trend strength, seasonality, noise level, and temporal dependence. Based on these descriptors, a rule-based selection mechanism is formulated to map data regimes to candidate forecasting models. The approach is evaluated on multiple real-world datasets across different domains and forecasting horizons. The results show that rule-based model selection achieves low accuracy, with correct model identification occurring in only a small fraction of cases. Significant discrepancies are observed between recommended and empirically optimal models, particularly in noisy and mixed regimes. Further analysis reveals that model performance is highly sensitive to both dataset characteristics and forecasting horizon, resulting in substantial ranking instability across scenarios. These findings explain why simple heuristic rules fail to generalize and demonstrate that forecasting performance cannot be reliably predicted using static, descriptor-based approaches. This study provides empirical evidence that model selection in time series forecasting is inherently context-dependent and highlights the need for more adaptive, data-driven strategies.

Missing data imputation remains a fundamental challenge in modern data science, especially when uncertainty quantification is essential. In this work, we propose MissBGM, an AI-powered missing data imputation method via Bayesian generative modeling that bridges the expressive flexibility of neural networks with the statistical rigor of Bayesian inference. Unlike existing methods that often focus on point estimates or treat the missingness mechanism implicitly, MissBGM explicitly and jointly models the data-generating and missingness mechanisms, providing principled posterior uncertainty over imputations rather than a single point estimate. We develop a stochastic optimization framework with alternating updates among missing values, model parameters, and latent variables until convergence. Our theoretical analysis shows that estimates of missing values from MissBGM converge consistently under mild assumptions. Empirically, we demonstrate that MissBGM achieves superior performance over traditional imputers and recent neural network-based methods across extensive experimental settings. These results establish MissBGM as a principled and scalable solution for modern missing data imputation.

Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from these advances, including regression and classification beyond the training data, extreme quantile regression, supervised and unsupervised dimension reduction, generative artificial intelligence and anomaly detection. This review synthesizes recent developments in these fields at the intersection of statistical learning and extreme value theory, with a focus on principled methods based on asymptotically motivated representations of the tail of univariate and multivariate distributions. We consider different theoretical frameworks for both asymptotically dependent and independent data and discuss how they translate into efficient statistical methods for extrapolation to extreme regions. By addressing both theoretical and practical aspects, we offer a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art in this quickly evolving field, and identify promising directions for future research.

However, the activations of well-fitting KANs tend to exhibit pathologically high-curvature oscillations, making them difficult to interpret, and standard regularization penalties do not prevent this. Here we derive a basis-agnostic curvature penalty and show that penalized models can maintain accuracy while achieving substantially smoother activations. Accounting for how function composition shapes curvature, we prove an upper bound on the full model's curvature relative to the curvature penalty, and use this to motivate richer forms of penalties. Scientific machine learning is increasingly bottlenecked by the trade-off between accuracy and interpretability. Results such as ours that improve interpretability without sacrificing accuracy will further strengthen KANs as a practical tool for both prediction and insight.

The proliferation of large-scale and structurally complex data has spurred the integration of machine learning methods into statistical modeling. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), a foundational class of models for time-dependent data, can be viewed as nonlinear extensions of classical autoregressive moving average models. Despite their flexibility and empirical success in machine learning, RNNs often suffer from limited interpretability and slow training, which hinders their use in statistics. This paper proposes the Parallelized RNN (ParaRNN), a novel model composed of multiple small recurrent units. ParaRNN admits an additive representation that decouples recurrent dynamics into interpretable components, whose behavior can be characterized through recurrence features. This interpretability enables its applications in nonparametric regression for time-dependent data, while the design also allows efficient parallelization. The approximation capacity and non-asymptotic prediction error bounds in a nonparametric regression setting are established for ParaRNN. Empirical results on three sequential modeling tasks further demonstrate that ParaRNN achieves performance comparable to vanilla RNNs while offering improved interpretability and efficiency.

We propose a robust gradient estimator based on per-sample gradient clipping and analyze its properties both theoretically and empirically. We show that the resulting method, per-sample clipped SGD (PS-Clip-SGD), achieves optimal in-expectation convergence rates for non-convex optimization problems under heavy-tailed gradient noise. Moreover, we establish high-probability convergence guarantees that match the in-expectation rates up to polylogarithmic factors in the failure probability. We complement our theoretical results with multiple numerical experiments. In particular, we demonstrate that PS-Clip-SGD outperforms both vanilla SGD with momentum and standard gradient clipping when training AlexNet on the CIFAR-100 dataset, even after accounting for the additional computational time caused by per-sample clipping. We also empirically show that, in the presence of gradient accumulation, applying clipping at the mini-batch level can improve training performance while incurring virtually no additional computational cost. This finding is particularly interesting, as it contradicts the common practice of applying clipping only after all accumulation steps have been completed.

We consider the infinite-width limit of a fully connected deep neural network with general weights, and we prove quantitative general bounds on the $2$-Wasserstein distance between the network and its infinite-width Gaussian limit, under appropriate regularity assumptions on the activation function. Our main tool is a Lindeberg principle for Deep Neural Networks, which we use to successively replace the weights on each layer by Gaussian random variables.

This chapter introduces the Bayesian reflex -- an analogy with the autonomic nervous system -- as a unifying framework for online learning in AI. Bayesian online algorithms automatically maintain equilibrium in dynamic environments via three mechanisms: belief maintenance through probabilistic representations, sequential updating via Bayes' theorem, and uncertainty-driven action balancing exploration and exploitation. We survey online Bayesian methods, highlighting two computational principles: the look-up table principle for sequential inference in function space, and the ellipsoidal decomposition framework for nearly exact i.i.d. sampling from arbitrary posteriors. These principles are generalized across dynamic emulation, nonparametric state-space models, circular time series, inverse regression for climate model evaluation, and deep architectures via Recursive Gaussian Processes. Decision-making is explored via Thompson sampling and restless bandits. We extend the framework to assess infinite series convergence (applied to climate dynamics and the Riemann Hypothesis), model prime number distributions leading to the discovery of 184 strong Mersenne prime candidates, detect stationarity, and characterize point processes. The Bayesian reflex provides a foundational infrastructure for adaptive AI that continuously learns in a complex world.

OpenAI's cofounder and president revealed in federal court on Monday that he's one of the largest individual stakeholders in the AI lab. Two days before the Musk v. Altman trial began, Elon Musk asked OpenAI cofounder and president Greg Brockman about reaching a settlement. When Brockman suggested both sides drop their claims, Musk responded, "By the end of this week, you and Sam [Altman] will be the most hated men in America. If you insist, so be it." The message --which OpenAI's lawyers made public on Sunday, and which Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers subsequently refused to let the jury hear about--underscores what may be Musk's larger goal in this trial.