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Elon Musk Is Dropping a Boulder in a Kiddie Pool

The Atlantic - Technology

He is about to take SpaceX public--pushing other AI companies to do the same. Elon Musk is about to set in motion a chain of events that will reshape the global financial order. For starters, when SpaceX formally goes public next week, he is all but guaranteed to become the world's first trillionaire. His rocket company is targeting a valuation of $1.77 trillion, which would make it one of the 10 biggest companies in the world--bigger than Meta, Walmart, and, for that matter, Tesla. All of this activity is less about colonizing Mars and more about providing the infrastructure for the AI boom: Musk wants to use his rockets to launch data centers into space, where there is abundant solar power to harvest.


The Download: AI hacking beyond Mythos, and chatbots' impact on our brains

MIT Technology Review

Plus: Anthropic has called for a global slowdown in AI development. The Meta hack shows there's more to AI security than Mythos On Monday, reports emerged that attackers had used Meta's AI customer support agent to steal Instagram accounts. Their approach was simple: they asked the agent to link the accounts to email addresses they controlled, and it complied. Since Anthropic announced that its Mythos model was too good at hacking for a general release, cybersecurity concerns have focused on the risk of superpowered AI systems overwhelming computer infrastructure. But the Instagram hack shows that far simpler exploits can still cause damage. As companies offload more work to AI, these comparatively unsophisticated attacks are becoming harder to ignore.


Dead Directions: Geometric Singular Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Singular learning theory and information geometry have studied the same parameter spaces in mostly separate vocabularies: the former computes Bayesian invariants in resolved coordinates, the latter works in original coordinates under a non-degeneracy assumption that overparameterised models routinely violate. We bridge them through one primitive, the dead direction: a unit vector along which the Fisher metric degenerates, equivalently a tangent to the analytic singular set with a definite KL order, set by how fast the KL divergence vanishes. The two readings name the same vector; our central move shows its KL order is recoverable as the decay rate of the directional Fisher curvature approaching the singularity, in original parameter coordinates and without a Hironaka resolution. A selection rule on smooth fibres translates this rate into Watanabe's single-direction contribution to the real log canonical threshold, and we extend the recovery to multi-component crossings, multiplicity $m$, the singular fluctuation $ฮฝ$ (universal in the KL order for 1D directions), prior-RLCT shifts, and tempered posteriors. We then lift this rate to a deep network: a multi-layer K-FAC factorisation writes each Fisher block as a product of activation- and gradient-side rates with a duality between them, instantiated at modern-network primitives (residual streams, layer normalisation, attention). A quotient theorem carries the rate to the gauge quotient $ฮ˜/G$ under gradient flow on a $G$-invariant metric; SGD qualifies, standard Adam does not, and we construct a $G$-equivariant Adam-family preconditioner (DDCAdam) that does. The bridge yields a parameter-coordinate handle on singular geometry, closed-form per-architecture predictions, and a trajectory-rate readout of Watanabe's triple $(ฮป, m, ฮฝ)$ from one checkpoint's forward and backward passes, without posterior sampling.


Efficient Mean Curvature Computation on High-Dimensional Data Manifolds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Estimating local mean curvature at each point of a high-dimensional dataset is a key ingredient of geometry-aware machine learning algorithms, such as the Mean Curvature Boundary Points (MCBP) method. The naive implementation of this computation, based on a local shape operator approximated from k-nearest neighbor patches, involves an explicit construction of a matrix $H$ whose trace form yields an $O(m^4)$ cost per point, rendering the approach intractable for datasets with more than a few dozen features. This paper introduces two complementary contributions that together reduce this cost by several orders of magnitude. The first contribution is an exact algebraic identity. This identity, derived from the orthogonality of the eigenvectors of the covariance matrix and the cyclicity of the trace operator, eliminates $H$ entirely and reduces the per-point cost to $O(m^2)$ after the eigendecomposition. The second contribution addresses the remaining $O(m^3)$ bottleneck of the full eigendecomposition. Since the local covariance matrix has rank at most $k-1 \ll m$, we replace it with a truncated SVD of the $k \times m$ centered data matrix, an $O(k^2 m)$ operation, and derive an analytical approximation for the contribution of the null-space eigenvectors based on the expected value of their outer product under the Haar measure. The resulting estimator has total cost $O(k^2 m + k m p^2)$, where $p = k-1$. Experiments on real-world datasets confirm speedups of 50 to 300 times relative to the original implementation, with negligible loss when the fast estimator is used to replace the original version. By providing a scalable and data-driven estimate of local curvature, the proposed method establishes curvature as a practical geometric feature for a broad range of machine learning tasks, from classical to modern deep learning pipelines.


PAC-Bayesian Adversarially Robust Generalization for Message Passing Graph Neural Networks: A Sensitivity Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Whilst the vulnerability of graph neural networks (GNNs) to adversarial attacks poses a critical threat to graph representation learning, the understanding of the robust generalization behavior remains a fundamental challenge in the adversarial setting. Recently, PAC-Bayesian margin-based generalization analysis substantially advances this line of research by providing a flexible and data-dependent analytical framework. However, existing robust analyses often rely on isotropic Gaussian posteriors and control weight perturbations in the full parameter space, which limits the ability to capture heterogeneous parameter sensitivity yet hinges on hidden-width-dependent complexity terms, resulting in not-tight-enough generalization bounds. In this paper, we extend a recently proposed sensitivity-aware PAC-Bayesian framework from deep neural networks to message passing GNNs (MPGNNs) and derive a tighter robust generalization bound in the adversarial setting. Specifically, we first quantify how sensitive the perturbations across different parameter blocks are to the network outputs by deriving the output Jacobians with respect to the weight parameters. Exploiting the fact that these Jacobian matrices have rank at most $K$ in $K$-class graph classification, we then construct Jacobian-aligned sensitivity matrices and use anisotropic Gaussian posteriors with optimized covariances to upper bound the KL divergence in a tight way. Notably, by refining the spectral-norm dependence on the learned weights and reducing the leading dimension factor from hidden-width-dependent terms to the number of classes $K$, our analysis yields much tighter robust generalization guarantees for MPGNNs, thereby guiding their designs to enhance adversarial robustness.


End-to-End Subgraph Detection with GraphDETR

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Subgraph detection seeks to identify whether and where instances of query patterns occur within a larger graph. This problem is fundamental across scientific domains and is closely related to subgraph isomorphism, which is NP-complete, limiting combinatorial approaches to small patterns or moderately sized graphs. We introduce GraphDETR, a deep learning framework that formulates subgraph detection as a set prediction problem, analogous to DETR in object detection. GraphDETR encodes the target graph with a graph neural network, and employs a fixed set of learnable query vectors, decoded via a transformer decoder, to predict all pattern occurrences jointly in a single forward pass. This is enabled by training the model end-to-end with bipartite matching. Unlike traditional combinatorial methods that only solve exact structural matching, GraphDETR naturally extends to approximate matching, enabling detection beyond exact pattern correspondence. Empirically, we show that GraphDETR can detect diverse patterns, such as molecular structures, cycles, cliques, and fuzzy patterns of up to 50 nodes, in target graphs with up to 1000 nodes. We further evaluate on molecular functional group detection over the ChEMBL dataset, where GraphDETR predicts the complete set of functional groups per molecule, achieving a strong performance of $\text{AP}_{100} = 91.2$.


Zero-Copy Semantic Contagion: An In-Memory Streaming Architecture for Evolving Attention Graphs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Per-ticker forecasting models dominate financial time-series work yet remain blind to cross-company propagation: a foundry disruption in Taiwan does not register in a single-asset model until Apple's own price has already moved. To address this limitation, we introduce a heterogeneous Rust-Python streaming architecture that maps cross-company attention as a continuous-time graph driven directly from text. We show that on the ingestion side, a zero-copy Rust edge parses news records in $\sim$100 ns and scans the target equity universe in $\sim$1.2 $ฮผ$s. On the inference end, a multivariate Neural Hawkes Process featuring per-node continuous-time LSTM states and a bilinear latent projection propagates directed excitation, while an adaptive pruning rule bounds the computational cost of dynamic neighborhood updates. Combining these stages, we demonstrate an end-to-end processing latency of $\sim$13 ms per incoming news record on a single commodity CPU. Evaluated on a one-month temporal holdout of the FNSPID corpus (638 articles across 47 tickers), the system delivers a $1.70\times$ precision lift over random at the 90th-percentile next-day return threshold, and $3.36\times$ over a same-sector baseline. Crucially, removing the graph topology collapses precision to zero, confirming that the dynamic attention network is the sole driver of cross-company signal in this architecture.


Symmetric Divergence and Normalized Similarity: A Unified Topological Framework for Representation Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Topological Data Analysis (TDA) offers a principled, intrinsic lens for comparing neural representations. However, existing paired topological divergences (e.g., RTD) are limited by heuristic asymmetry and, more critically, unbounded scores that depend on sample size, hindering reliable cross-scenario benchmarking. To address these challenges, we develop a unified topological toolkit serving two complementary needs: fine-grained structural diagnosis and robust, standardized evaluation. First, we complete the RTD framework by introducing Symmetric Representation Topology Divergence (SRTD) and its efficient variant SRTD-lite. Beyond resolving the theoretical asymmetry of prior variants, SRTD consolidates diagnostic information into a single, comprehensive cross-barcode signature. This allows for precise localization of structural discrepancies and serves as an effective optimization objective without the overhead of dual directional computations. Second, to enable reliable benchmarking across heterogeneous settings, we propose Normalized Topological Similarity (NTS). By measuring the rank correlation of hierarchical merge orders, NTS yields a scale-invariant metric bounded between -1 and 1, effectively overcoming the scale and sample-dependence of unnormalized divergences. Experiments across synthetic and real-world deep learning settings demonstrate that our toolkit captures functional shifts in CNNs missed by geometric measures and robustly maps LLM genealogy even under distance saturation, offering a rigorous, topology-aware perspective that complements measures like CKA.


Effective Dimensionality as an Operator Invariant for Physics-Preserving Constraint Adaptation in Physics-Informed Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Physics-Informed Neural Networks inherently suffer from task interference because they rely on a shared parameter space to satisfy both governing differential equations and boundary conditions. We analyze this structural conflict using the Fisher Information Matrix to quantify the effective degrees of freedom ($d_{eff}$) in a physics-constrained model. Unlike the classical $d_{eff}$ which measures how many parameter directions are informed by data against a statistical prior, our $d_{eff}$ measures the dimension of the parameter directions unconstrained by the differential operator. For operators with finite-dimensional kernel, we show that $d_{eff}$ converges to the kernel dimension exactly, independent of network width, depth, or activation function, recasting it from a fit diagnostic into a structural invariant of the underlying continuous operator. For operators with infinite-dimensional kernel, $d_{eff}$ instead measures the network's finite-dimensional representational bandwidth for that kernel rather than recovering an integer invariant. Importantly, $d_{eff}$ also serves as an a priori structural diagnostic. Driving $d_{eff}$ of a well-posed problem to zero certifies that the physics and boundary constraints have absorbed the network's free directions. Building on this characterization, we introduce subspace projection strategies for boundary adaptation. Rather than retraining from scratch, we project parameter updates into the null space of the pre-trained physics operator so that new boundary conditions are satisfied without disturbing the learned physics. Gradient-based fine-tuning can match or exceed this but needs more wall-clock time and tuning, whereas subspace projection delivers near-equivalent quality in seconds to minutes. We validate on linear and nonlinear operators, demonstrating accurate adaptation to initial and boundary shifts and unencountered constraint types.


Mamba-Assisted Non-Markovian Closure for Reduced-Order Modeling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Reduced-order modeling of high-dimensional dynamical systems is often hindered by the non-Markovian closure term that represents the effect of unresolved variables on the resolved dynamics. Inspired by the Mori--Zwanzig formalism, in which the closure takes the form of a memory functional of the resolved trajectory, we recast closure modeling as a sequence modeling problem and propose the Mamba-Assisted Closure (MAC) framework: a Mamba-based sequence model, trained to predict the closure from the resolved trajectory, is coupled with the reduced-order governing equations through a numerical integrator to advance the resolved variables in time. A key feature of the framework is its exploitation of the dual representation of state-space models -- the model is trained in a sequence-to-sequence fashion via the convolutional form, and deployed for step-by-step autoregressive rollout via the recurrent form, yielding both efficient long-trajectory training and constant per-step inference cost. On the viscous Burgers' equation and the chaotic two-scale Lorenz '96 system, the MAC model substantially outperforms the Markovian reduced-order model, the GRU-based sequence model, and the Wilks method in predictive accuracy and long-time rollout stability.