Elon Musk loses case against Sam Altman over OpenAI's overhaul Elon Musk arrives at the Ronald V. Dellums Federal Building for court in Oakland, California on April 30. A jury rejected Elon Musk's claims that OpenAI under Sam Altman's leadership betrayed its mission to benefit the public by morphing into a for-profit business, finding that he waited too long to sue the company. The verdict reached Monday in federal court in Oakland, California, follows a trial over the bitter feud between the entrepreneurs who worked together to launch the startup in 2015. OpenAI has since evolved into one of the world's most valuable and powerful artificial intelligence companies. "I think there is a substantial amount of evidence to support the jury's findings," U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers said when she accepted the nine-member jury's unanimous conclusion after about two hours of deliberations.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have increasingly relied on reinforcement learning (RL) to improve their reasoning capabilities. Three types of approaches have been widely adopted: The first relies on a deep neural network to estimate the value function of the learning policy in order to reduce the variance of the policy gradient. However, estimating and maintaining such a value network incurs substantial computational and memory overhead. The second avoids training a value network by approximating the value function using sample averages. However, it samples a large number of reasoning traces per prompt for accurate value function approximation, making it computationally expensive. The third samples only a single reasoning trajectory per prompt, which reduces computational cost but suffers from poor sample efficiency. This paper focuses on a practical, resource-constrained setting in which only a small number of reasoning traces can be sampled per prompt, while low-variance gradient estimation remains essential for high-quality policy learning. To address this challenge, we bring classical nonparametric statistical methods, which are both computationally and statistically efficient, to LLM reasoning. We employ kernel smoothing as a concrete example for value function estimation and the subsequent policy optimization. Numerical and theoretical results demonstrate that our proposal achieves accurate value and gradient estimation, leading to improved policy optimization.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a core post-training step for aligning large language models, yet the reward signal used in RLHF is only a learned proxy for true human utility. From an operations research perspective, this creates a decision problem under objective misspecification: the policy is optimized against an estimated reward, while deployment performance is determined by an unobserved objective. The resulting gap leads to reward over-optimization, or Goodharting, where proxy reward continues to improve even after true quality deteriorates. Existing mitigations address this problem through uncertainty penalties, pessimistic rewards, or conservative constraints, but they can be computationally burdensome and overly pessimistic. We propose Wasserstein distributionally robust regret optimization (DRRO) for RLHF. Instead of pessimizing worst-case value as in standard DRO, DRRO pessimizes worst-case regret relative to the best policy under the same plausible reward perturbation. We study the promptwise problem through a simplex allocation model and show that, under an $\ell_1$-ground-cost Wasserstein ambiguity set, the inner worst-case regret admits an exact solution and the optimal policy has a water-filling structure. These results lead to a practical policy-gradient algorithm with a simple sampled-bonus interpretation and only minor changes to GRPO-style RLHF training. The framework also clarifies theoretically why DRRO is less pessimistic than DRO, and our experiments show that DRRO mitigates over-optimization more effectively than existing baselines while standard DRO is systematically over-pessimistic.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) excels at finding general-purpose latent representations from complex data, yet lacks a unifying theoretical framework that explains the diverse existing methods and guides the design of new ones. We cast SSL as latent distribution matching (LDM): learning representations that maximize their log-probability under an assumed latent model (alignment), while maximizing latent entropy to prevent collapse (uniformity). This view unifies independent component analysis with contrastive, non-contrastive, and predictive SSL methods, including stop gradient approaches. Leveraging LDM, we derive a nonlinear, sampling-free Bayesian filtering model with a Kalman-based predictor for high-dimensional timeseries. We further prove that predictive LDM yields identifiable latent representations under mild assumptions, even with nonlinear predictors. Overall, LDM clarifies the assumptions behind established SSL methods and provides principled guidance for developing new approaches.

Automated systems built on artificial intelligence (AI) are increasingly deployed across high-stakes domains, raising critical concerns about fairness and the perpetuation of demographic disparities that exist in the world. In this context, causal inference provides a principled framework for reasoning about fairness, as it links observed disparities to underlying mechanisms and aligns naturally with human intuition and legal notions of discrimination. Prior work on causal fairness primarily focuses on the standard machine learning setting, where a decision-maker constructs a single predictive mechanism $f_{\widehat Y}$ for an outcome variable $Y$, while inheriting the causal mechanisms of all other covariates from the real world. The generative AI setting, however, is markedly more complex: generative models can sample from arbitrary conditionals over any set of variables, implicitly constructing their own beliefs about all causal mechanisms rather than learning a single predictive function. This fundamental difference requires new developments in causal fairness methodology. We formalize the problem of causal fairness in generative AI and unify it with the standard ML setting under a common theoretical framework. We then derive new causal decomposition results that enable granular quantification of fairness impacts along both (a) different causal pathways and (b) the replacement of real-world mechanisms by the generative model's mechanisms. We establish identification conditions and introduce efficient estimators for causal quantities of interest, and demonstrate the value of our methodology by analyzing race and gender bias in large language models across different datasets.

Medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression prediction is difficult because future clinical scores can remain tied to baseline severity, while biomarker histories are irregular and incompletely observed. We develop an anchor-based analysis of 24-month Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) change using harmonized Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) tables. Each labeled sample is anchored at a mild cognitive impairment visit, uses only clinical and biomarker history observed at or before that anchor, and defines the response as CDR-SB at the future visit closest to 24 months within an 18--30 month window minus anchor CDR-SB. The analytic cohort contains 2,600 labeled anchors from 858 participants and 7,276 longitudinal rows. We propose a residual gap-aware transformer that combines a mixed-effects statistical reference with transformer-based residual learning from pre-anchor clinical and biomarker histories. The model uses participant-level random intercepts in the mixed-effects reference, observation-level triplet tokenization for irregular histories, and a learned nonnegative time-gap penalty inside self-attention. We compare the proposed model with a Bayesian-information-criterion-selected linear mixed-effects baseline, GRU-D, and STraTS under repeated participant-level train--test splits. Across five participant-level random seeds, the proposed model achieves the best mean test performance across all reported metrics, reducing MSE by 13.1% and increasing prediction--observation correlation by 26.4% relative to the mixed-effects baseline. It also improves over both GRU-D and STraTS in mean error and correlation. These results show that statistical anchoring and gap-aware residual learning provide a useful structure for medium-horizon Alzheimer's disease progression prediction.

We present TailedTS, a large-scale benchmark dataset derived from Wikipedia hourly page view observations throughout 2024, specifically designed to test time series forecasting models under heavy-tailed, zero-inflated, and non-Gaussian conditions. The dataset comprises approximately 24.69 billion data points spanning roughly 3 million unique Wikipedia pages per month, stored in high-efficiency Apache Parquet format. Wikipedia traffic follows a pronounced power-law distribution where roughly 5% of pages account for over 70% of total page views, creating a natural and rigorous testbed for model robustness against extreme volatility that are absent from or underrepresented in existing benchmarks such as M4, M5, and UCI electricity datasets. TailedTS enables several research tasks. First, we introduce a periodicity quantification framework based on sparse autoregression with sparsity and non-negativity constraints, revealing that frequently-viewed pages exhibit significantly weaker periodic structure than their less-viewed counterparts, showing direct implications for server allocation and traffic forecasting on large digital platforms. Second, we provide standardized prediction benchmarks evaluated under a suite of non-Gaussian loss functions, including $\ell_1$-norm, Huber, quantile, and $\ell_p$-norm losses, demonstrating that standard Gaussian-based estimators degrade substantially on high-volume page categories, while robust alternatives provide consistent gains across all traffic scales. TailedTS is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17070469.

Deep neural networks achieve high accuracy on image classification tasks. Yet, they often produce overconfident predictions as which fail to express epistemic uncertainty, and frequently violate logical or structural constraints present in the data. These limitations are particularly pronounced in hierarchical classification, where predictions across fine and coarse levels must remain coherent. We propose, for the first time, a unified neurosymbolic and epistemic modelling framework that augments Swin Transformers with focal set reasoning and differentiable fuzzy logic. Rather than treating labels as isolated categories, our method induces data-driven focal sets within the learnt embedding space, which helps capture epistemic uncertainty over multiple plausible fine-grained classes. These focal sets form the basis of a belief-theoretic layer that uses fuzzy membership functions and t-norm conjunctions to encourage consistency between fine- and coarse-grained predictions. A learnable loss further balances calibration, mass regularisation, and logical consistency, allowing the model to adaptively trade off symbolic structure with data-driven evidence. In experiments on hierarchical image classification, our framework maintains accuracy on par with transformer baselines while providing more calibrated and interpretable predictions, reducing overconfidence and enforcing high logical consistency across hierarchical outputs. Our experimental results show that combining focal set reasoning with fuzzy logic provides a practical step toward deep learning models that are both accurate and epistemically aware.

Obtaining stable diffusion-based samplers in high- and infinite-dimensional settings is challenging because errors can accumulate across high-frequency coordinates and make the dynamics unstable under refinement of the finite-dimensional approximation of the underlying function-space problem. Discretization is a typical source of such errors, and preconditioning with a suitable spectral decay is one way to control their accumulation. In this paper, we study this problem for preconditioned annealed Langevin dynamics (ALD) applied to Gaussian mixtures. We first show that Euler-Maruyama (EM) discretization, by treating the stiff linear part of the annealed score with a forward Euler step, imposes a stability constraint coupling the preconditioner with the annealed covariance scale. Together with the conditions ensuring dimension-uniform control of the annealed dynamics, this constraint forces the initial smoothed law to remain uniformly close to the target across dimensions. We then consider an exponential-integrator scheme that integrates the stiff linear part of the annealed score exactly. Under explicit spectral summability conditions coupling the smoothing covariance, the component covariance spectra, and the preconditioner, we prove a dimension-uniform Kullback-Leibler (KL) bound for this scheme. This bound can be made arbitrarily small, uniformly in dimension, by allowing enough time for annealing and then refining the time mesh accordingly. Importantly, these conditions allow regimes in which the KL divergence between the target and the initial smoothed law diverges with dimension, showing that the restrictions imposed by EM are scheme-dependent rather than intrinsic to ALD.

Spatially referenced datasets have become increasingly prevalent across many fields, largely driven by advances in data collection methods such as satellite remote sensing. In many applications, predictions at unobserved locations are accompanied by reliable uncertainty estimates. While deep learning methods provide both scalable and accurate models for spatial predictions, there remains no clear consensus for addressing uncertainty quantification in spatial deep learning. Monte Carlo (MC) dropout has become a popular approach for uncertainty quantification, yet existing implementations typically focus on tuning the dropout rate while fixing other influential hyperparameters, such as weight decay and the predictive standard deviation multiplier, often through ad-hoc or manual tuning. We propose a cubing-based diagnostic framework that recursively partitions the hyperparameter space to identify stable regions where MC dropout yields well-calibrated predictive intervals. The approach evaluates hyperparameter regions using scoring rules relative to a statistical baseline model, which serves as a calibration anchor. Through a simulation study spanning multiple spatial dependence regimes as well as a large remotely-sensed land surface temperature dataset, we demonstrate that our approach produces competitive or superior predictive intervals compared to the baseline model. Our methodology provides practitioners with a systematic procedure for incorporating uncertainty quantification into spatial deep learning models.