We approach structured output prediction by optimizing a deep value network (DVN) to precisely estimate the task loss on different output configurations for a given input. Once the model is trained, we perform inference by gradient descent on the continuous relaxations of the output variables to find outputs with promising scores from the value network. When applied to image segmentation, the value network takes an image and a segmentation mask as inputs and predicts a scalar estimating the intersection over union between the input and ground truth masks. For multi-label classification, the DVN's objective is to correctly predict the F1 score for any potential label configuration. The DVN framework achieves the state-of-the-art results on multi-label prediction and image segmentation benchmarks.

In this paper we study how to learn stochastic, multimodal transition dynamics in reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. We focus on evaluating transition function estimation, while we defer planning over this model to future work. Stochasticity is a fundamental property of many task environments. However, discriminative function approximators have difficulty estimating multimodal stochasticity. In contrast, deep generative models do capture complex high-dimensional outcome distributions. First we discuss why, amongst such models, conditional variational inference (VI) is theoretically most appealing for model-based RL. Subsequently, we compare different VI models on their ability to learn complex stochasticity on simulated functions, as well as on a typical RL gridworld with multimodal dynamics. Results show VI successfully predicts multimodal outcomes, but also robustly ignores these for deterministic parts of the transition dynamics. In summary, we show a robust method to learn multimodal transitions using function approximation, which is a key preliminary for model-based RL in stochastic domains.

While deep learning models have achieved state-of-the-art accuracies for many prediction tasks, understanding these models remains a challenge. Despite the recent interest in developing visual tools to help users interpret deep learning models, the complexity and wide variety of models deployed in industry, and the large-scale datasets that they used, pose unique design challenges that are inadequately addressed by existing work. Through participatory design sessions with over 15 researchers and engineers at Facebook, we have developed, deployed, and iteratively improved ActiVis, an interactive visualization system for interpreting large-scale deep learning models and results. By tightly integrating multiple coordinated views, such as a computation graph overview of the model architecture, and a neuron activation view for pattern discovery and comparison, users can explore complex deep neural network models at both the instance- and subset-level. ActiVis has been deployed on Facebook's machine learning platform. We present case studies with Facebook researchers and engineers, and usage scenarios of how ActiVis may work with different models.

Medical practitioners use survival models to explore and understand the relationships between patients' covariates (e.g. clinical and genetic features) and the effectiveness of various treatment options. Standard survival models like the linear Cox proportional hazards model require extensive feature engineering or prior medical knowledge to model treatment interaction at an individual level. While nonlinear survival methods, such as neural networks and survival forests, can inherently model these high-level interaction terms, they have yet to be shown as effective treatment recommender systems. We introduce DeepSurv, a Cox proportional hazards deep neural network and state-of-the-art survival method for modeling interactions between a patient's covariates and treatment effectiveness in order to provide personalized treatment recommendations. We perform a number of experiments training DeepSurv on simulated and real survival data. We demonstrate that DeepSurv performs as well as or better than other state-of-the-art survival models and validate that DeepSurv successfully models increasingly complex relationships between a patient's covariates and their risk of failure. We then show how DeepSurv models the relationship between a patient's features and effectiveness of different treatment options to show how DeepSurv can be used to provide individual treatment recommendations. Finally, we train DeepSurv on real clinical studies to demonstrate how it's personalized treatment recommendations would increase the survival time of a set of patients. The predictive and modeling capabilities of DeepSurv will enable medical researchers to use deep neural networks as a tool in their exploration, understanding, and prediction of the effects of a patient's characteristics on their risk of failure.

Video captioning, the task of describing the content of a video, has seen some promising improvements in recent years with sequence-to-sequence models, but accurately learning the temporal and logical dynamics involved in the task still remains a challenge, especially given the lack of sufficient annotated data. We improve video captioning by sharing knowledge with two related directed-generation tasks: a temporally-directed unsupervised video prediction task to learn richer context-aware video encoder representations, and a logically-directed language entailment generation task to learn better video-entailed caption decoder representations. For this, we present a many-to-many multi-task learning model that shares parameters across the encoders and decoders of the three tasks. We achieve significant improvements and the new state-of-the-art on several standard video captioning datasets using diverse automatic and human evaluations. We also show mutual multi-task improvements on the entailment generation task.

PyTorch early release version was announced yesterday 1/19. PyTorch is currently maintained by Adam Paszke, Sam Gross and Soumith Chintala. The first question that comes to mind is What exactly is PyTorch? Let's take a pause here and try to realise that till last few months, people were under the assumption that the deep learning library ecosystem was stabilising but it was far from the ground reality. Cutting edge tech in that ecosystem is ensuring efficient support for dynamic computation graphs and PyTorch just aces that is all aspects.

Time Series is defined as a set of observations taken at a particular period of time. For example, having a set of login details at regular interval of time of each user can be categorized as a time series. On the other hand, when the data is collected at once or irregularly, it is not taken as a time series data. Stock Series - It is a measure of attributes at a particular point in time and taken as a stock takes. Flow Series - It is a measure of activity at a specific interval of time. It contains effects related to the calendar. Time series is a sequence that is taken successively at the equally pace of time. It appears naturally in many application areas such as economics, science, environment, medicine, etc. There are many practical real life problems where data might be correlated with each other and are observed sequentially at the equal period of time.

I LOVE PyTorch for experimenting with dynamic deep neural nets (DNNs) -- that is, DNNs that can have different graphs for different input samples. I find it much, MUCH easier to create and tinker with dynamic DNNs using PyTorch than, say, TensorFlow Fold.

Guest blog by Sebastian Raschka, originally posted here. If we tackle a supervised learning problem, my advice is to start with the simplest hypothesis space first. I.e., try a linear model such as logistic regression. If this doesn't work "well" (i.e., it doesn't meet our expectation or performance criterion that we defined earlier), I would move on to the next experiment. I would say that random forests are probably THE "worry-free" approach - if such a thing exists in ML: There are no real hyperparameters to tune (maybe except for the number of trees; typically, the more trees we have the better).

Summary: If Deep Learning is powered by 2nd generation neural nets. What new capabilities does that imply and when will it get here? By far the fastest expanding frontier of data science is AI and specifically the rapid advances in Deep Learning. Advances in Deep Learning have been dependent on artificial neural nets and especially Convolutional Neural Nets (CNNs). In fact our use of the word "deep" in Deep Learning refers to the fact that CNNs have large numbers of hidden layers. Microsoft recently won the annual ImageNet competition with a CNN comprised of 152 layers.