There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model - uncertainty which can be explained away given enough data. Traditionally it has been difficult to model epistemic uncertainty in computer vision, but with new Bayesian deep learning tools this is now possible. We study the benefits of modeling epistemic vs. aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian deep learning models for vision tasks. For this we present a Bayesian deep learning framework combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty together with epistemic uncertainty. We study models under the framework with per-pixel semantic segmentation and depth regression tasks. Further, our explicit uncertainty formulation leads to new loss functions for these tasks, which can be interpreted as learned attenuation. This makes the loss more robust to noisy data, also giving new state-of-the-art results on segmentation and depth regression benchmarks.

With the increasing popularity of machine learning techniques, it has become common to see prediction algorithms operating within some larger process. However, the criteria by which we train these algorithms often differ from the ultimate criteria on which we evaluate them. This paper proposes an end-to-end approach for learning probabilistic machine learning models in a manner that directly captures the ultimate task-based objective for which they will be used, within the context of stochastic programming. We present three experimental evaluations of the proposed approach: a classical inventory stock problem, a real-world electrical grid scheduling task, and a real-world energy storage arbitrage task. We show that the proposed approach can outperform both traditional modeling and purely black-box policy optimization approaches in these applications.

We propose a fast approximation method of a softmax function with a very large vocabulary using singular value decomposition (SVD). SVD-softmax targets fast and accurate probability estimation of the topmost probable words during inference of neural network language models. The proposed method transforms the weight matrix used in the calculation of the output vector by using SVD. The approximate probability of each word can be estimated with only a small part of the weight matrix by using a few large singular values and the corresponding elements for most of the words. We applied the technique to language modeling and neural machine translation and present a guideline for good approximation. The algorithm requires only approximately 20\% of arithmetic operations for an 800K vocabulary case and shows more than a three-fold speedup on a GPU.

Maximum Inner Product Search (MIPS) is an important task in many machine learning applications such as the prediction phase of low-rank matrix factorization models and deep learning models. Recently, there has been substantial research on how to perform MIPS in sub-linear time, but most of the existing work does not have the flexibility to control the trade-off between search efficiency and search quality. In this paper, we study the important problem of MIPS with a computational budget. By carefully studying the problem structure of MIPS, we develop a novel Greedy-MIPS algorithm, which can handle budgeted MIPS by design. While simple and intuitive, Greedy-MIPS yields surprisingly superior performance compared to state-of-the-art approaches. As a specific example, on a candidate set containing half a million vectors of dimension 200, Greedy-MIPS runs 200x faster than the naive approach while yielding search results with the top-5 precision greater than 75%.

Multi-label classification is the task of predicting a set of labels for a given input instance. Classifier chains are a state-of-the-art method for tackling such problems, which essentially converts this problem into a sequential prediction problem, where the labels are first ordered in an arbitrary fashion, and the task is to predict a sequence of binary values for these labels. In this paper, we replace classifier chains with recurrent neural networks, a sequence-to-sequence prediction algorithm which has recently been successfully applied to sequential prediction tasks in many domains. The key advantage of this approach is that it allows to focus on the prediction of the positive labels only, a much smaller set than the full set of possible labels. Moreover, parameter sharing across all classifiers allows to better exploit information of previous decisions. As both, classifier chains and recurrent neural networks depend on a fixed ordering of the labels, which is typically not part of a multi-label problem specification, we also compare different ways of ordering the label set, and give some recommendations on suitable ordering strategies.

Deep generative models have recently shown great promise in imitation learning for motor control. Given enough data, even supervised approaches can do one-shot imitation learning; however, they are vulnerable to cascading failures when the agent trajectory diverges from the demonstrations. Compared to purely supervised methods, Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) can learn more robust controllers from fewer demonstrations, but is inherently mode-seeking and more difficult to train. In this paper, we show how to combine the favourable aspects of these two approaches. The base of our model is a new type of variational autoencoder on demonstration trajectories that learns semantic policy embeddings. We show that these embeddings can be learned on a 9 DoF Jaco robot arm in reaching tasks, and then smoothly interpolated with a resulting smooth interpolation of reaching behavior. Leveraging these policy representations, we develop a new version of GAIL that (1) is much more robust than the purely-supervised controller, especially with few demonstrations, and (2) avoids mode collapse, capturing many diverse behaviors when GAIL on its own does not. We demonstrate our approach on learning diverse gaits from demonstration on a 2D biped and a 62 DoF 3D humanoid in the MuJoCo physics environment.

The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e., computing a posterior of the latent state given the model. However, the key challenge in GPSSMs has not been satisfactorily addressed yet: system identification, i.e., learning the model. To address this challenge, we impose a structured Gaussian variational posterior distribution over the latent states, which is parameterised by a recognition model in the form of a bi-directional recurrent neural network. Inference with this structure allows us to recover a posterior smoothed over sequences of data. We provide a practical algorithm for efficiently computing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood using the reparameterisation trick. This further allows for the use of arbitrary kernels within the GPSSM. We demonstrate that the learnt GPSSM can efficiently generate plausible future trajectories of the identified system after only observing a small number of episodes from the true system.

In this work, we propose to apply trust region optimization to deep reinforcement learning using a recently proposed Kronecker-factored approximation to the curvature. We extend the framework of natural policy gradient and propose to optimize both the actor and the critic using Kronecker-factored approximate curvature (K-FAC) with trust region; hence we call our method Actor Critic using Kronecker-Factored Trust Region (ACKTR). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first scalable trust region natural gradient method for actor-critic methods. It is also the method that learns non-trivial tasks in continuous control as well as discrete control policies directly from raw pixel inputs. We tested our approach across discrete domains in Atari games as well as continuous domains in the MuJoCo environment. With the proposed methods, we are able to achieve higher rewards and a 2- to 3-fold improvement in sample efficiency on average, compared to previous state-of-the-art on-policy actor-critic methods. Code is available at https://github.com/openai/baselines

Bayesian optimization has shown success in global optimization of expensive-to-evaluate multimodal objective functions. However, unlike most optimization methods, Bayesian optimization typically does not use derivative information. In this paper we show how Bayesian optimization can exploit derivative information to find good solutions with fewer objective function evaluations. In particular, we develop a novel Bayesian optimization algorithm, the derivative-enabled knowledge-gradient (dKG), which is one-step Bayes-optimal, asymptotically consistent, and provides greater one-step value of information than in the derivative-free setting. dKG accommodates noisy and incomplete derivative information, comes in both sequential and batch forms, and can optionally reduce the computational cost of inference through automatically selected retention of a single directional derivative. We also compute the dKG acquisition function and its gradient using a novel fast discretization-free technique. We show dKG provides state-of-the-art performance compared to a wide range of optimization procedures with and without gradients, on benchmarks including logistic regression, deep learning, kernel learning, and k-nearest neighbors.

Batch Normalization (BN) has proven to be an effective algorithm for deep neural network training by normalizing the input to each neuron and reducing the internal covariate shift. The space of weight vectors in the BN layer can be naturally interpreted as a Riemannian manifold, which is invariant to linear scaling of weights. Following the intrinsic geometry of this manifold provides a new learning rule that is more efficient and easier to analyze. We also propose intuitive and effective gradient clipping and regularization methods for the proposed algorithm by utilizing the geometry of the manifold. The resulting algorithm consistently outperforms the original BN on various types of network architectures and datasets.