Pharmaceutical targeting is one of key inputs for making sales and marketing strategy planning. Targeting list is built on predicting physician's sales potential of certain type of patient. In this paper, we present a time-sensitive targeting framework leveraging time series model to predict patient's disease and treatment progression. We create time features by extracting service history within a certain period, and record whether the event happens in a look-forward period. Such feature-label pairs are examined across all time periods and all patients to train a model. It keeps the inherent order of services and evaluates features associated to the imminent future, which contribute to improved accuracy.

While the volume of electronic health records (EHR) data continues to grow, it remains rare for hospital systems to capture dense physiological data streams, even in the data-rich intensive care unit setting. Instead, typical EHR records consist of sparse and irregularly observed multivariate time series, which are well understood to present particularly challenging problems for machine learning methods. In this paper, we present a new deep learning architecture for addressing this problem based on the use of a semi-parametric interpolation network followed by the application of a prediction network. The interpolation network allows for information to be shared across multiple dimensions during the interpolation stage, while any standard deep learning model can be used for the prediction network. We investigate the performance of this architecture on the problems of mortality and length of stay prediction.

The ability to learn and act in novel situations is still a prerogative of animate intelligence, as current machine learning methods mostly fail when moving beyond the standard i.i.d. setting. What is the reason for this discrepancy? Most machine learning tasks are anti-causal, i.e., we infer causes (labels) from effects (observations). Typically, in supervised learning we build systems that try to directly invert causal mechanisms. Instead, in this paper we argue that strong generalization capabilities crucially hinge on searching and validating meaningful hypotheses, requiring access to a causal model. In such a framework, we want to find a cause that leads to the observed effect. Anti-causal models are used to drive this search, but a causal model is required for validation. We investigate the fundamental differences between causal and anti-causal tasks, discuss implications for topics ranging from adversarial attacks to disentangling factors of variation, and provide extensive evidence from the literature to substantiate our view. We advocate for incorporating causal models in supervised learning to shift the paradigm from inference only, to search and validation.

In this work, we investigate unsupervised representation learning on medical time series, which bears the promise of leveraging copious amounts of existing unlabeled data in order to eventually assist clinical decision making. By evaluating on the prediction of clinically relevant outcomes, we show that in a practical setting, unsupervised representation learning can offer clear performance benefits over end-to-end supervised architectures. We experiment with using sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) models in two different ways, as an autoencoder and as a forecaster, and show that the best performance is achieved by a forecasting Seq2Seq model with an integrated attention mechanism, proposed here for the first time in the setting of unsupervised learning for medical time series.

Identifying patients who will be discharged within 24 hours can improve hospital resource management and quality of care. We studied this problem using eight years of Electronic Health Records (EHR) data from Stanford Hospital. We fit models to predict 24 hour discharge across the entire inpatient population. The best performing models achieved an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.85 and an AUPRC of 0.53 on a held out test set. This model was also well calibrated. Finally, we analyzed the utility of this model in a decision theoretic framework to identify regions of ROC space in which using the model increases expected utility compared to the trivial always negative or always positive classifiers.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is to find maximum likelihood solution for models having latent variables. A typical example is Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) which requires Gaussian assumption, however, natural images are highly non-Gaussian so that GMM cannot be applied to perform clustering task on pixel space. To overcome such limitation, we propose a GAN based EM learning framework that can maximize the likelihood of images and estimate the latent variables with only the constraint of L-Lipschitz continuity. We call this model GAN-EM, which is a framework for image clustering, semi-supervised classification and dimensionality reduction. In M-step, we design a novel loss function for discriminator of GAN to perform maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) on data with soft class label assignments. Specifically, a conditional generator captures data distribution for $K$ classes, and a discriminator tells whether a sample is real or fake for each class. Since our model is unsupervised, the class label of real data is regarded as latent variable, which is estimated by an additional network (E-net) in E-step. The proposed GAN-EM achieves state-of-the-art clustering and semi-supervised classification results on MNIST, SVHN and CelebA, as well as comparable quality of generated images to other recently developed generative models.

Neural architecture search (NAS) has a great impact by automatically designing effective neural network architectures. However, the prohibitive computational demand of conventional NAS algorithms (e.g. $10^4$ GPU hours) makes it difficult to \emph{directly} search the architectures on large-scale tasks (e.g. ImageNet). Differentiable NAS can reduce the cost of GPU hours via a continuous representation of network architecture but suffers from the high GPU memory consumption issue (grow linearly w.r.t. candidate set size). As a result, they need to utilize~\emph{proxy} tasks, such as training on a smaller dataset, or learning with only a few blocks, or training just for a few epochs. These architectures optimized on proxy tasks are not guaranteed to be optimal on target task. In this paper, we present \emph{ProxylessNAS} that can \emph{directly} learn the architectures for large-scale target tasks and target hardware platforms. We address the high memory consumption issue of differentiable NAS and reduce the computational cost (GPU hours and GPU memory) to the same level of regular training while still allowing a large candidate set. Experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet demonstrate the effectiveness of directness and specialization. On CIFAR-10, our model achieves 2.08\% test error with only 5.7M parameters, better than the previous state-of-the-art architecture AmoebaNet-B, while using 6$\times$ fewer parameters. On ImageNet, our model achieves 3.1\% better top-1 accuracy than MobileNetV2, while being 1.2$\times$ faster with measured GPU latency. We also apply ProxylessNAS to specialize neural architectures for hardware with direct hardware metrics (e.g. latency) and provide insights for efficient CNN architecture design.

We consider a classifier whose test set is exposed to various perturbations that are not present in the training set. These test samples still contain enough features to map them to the same class as their unperturbed counterpart. Current architectures exhibit rapid degradation of accuracy when trained on standard datasets but then used to classify perturbed samples of that data. To address this, we present a novel architecture named DeepConsensus that significantly improves generalization to these test-time perturbations. Our key insight is that deep neural networks should directly consider summaries of low and high level features when making classifications. Existing convolutional neural networks can be augmented with DeepConsensus, leading to improved resistance against large and small perturbations on MNIST, EMNIST, FashionMNIST, CIFAR10 and SVHN datasets.

Deep learning provides a flexible framework for function approximation and, as a result, deep models have become a standard approach in many domains including machine vision, natural language processing, speech recognition, bioinformatics, and game-playing [LeCun et al., 2015]. However, deep models tend to overfit when the number of training examples is small; furthermore, in practice, the primary focus in deep learning is often on computing point estimates of model parameters, and thus these models do not provide uncertainties for their predictions - making them unsuitable for applications in critical domains such as personalized medicine. Bayesian neural networks (BNN) promise to address these issues by modeling the uncertainty in the network weights, and correspondingly, the uncertainty in output predictions[MacKay, 1992b, Neal, 2012]. Unfortunately, characterizing uncertainty over parameters of modern neural networks in a Bayesian setting is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of the weight space and complex patterns of dependencies among the weights. In these cases, Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for performing inference often fail to mix across the weight space, and standard variational approaches not only struggle to escape local optima, but also fail to capture dependencies between the weights. A recent body of work has attempted to improve the quality of inference for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) via improved approximate inference methods [Graves, 2011, Blundell et al., 2015, Hernández-Lobato et al., 2016], or by improving the flexibility of the variational approximation for variational inference [Gershman et al., 2012, Ranganath et al., 2016, Louizos and Welling, 2017]. In this work, we introduce a novel approach in which we remove potential redundancies in neural network parameters by learning a nonlinear projection of the weights onto a low-dimensional latent space. Our approach takes advantage of the following insight: learning (standard network) parameters is easier in the high-dimensional space, but characterizing (Bayesian) uncertainty is easier in the 1 low-dimensional space. Low-dimensional spaces are generally easier to explore, especially if we have fewer correlations between dimensions, and can be better captured by standard variational approximations (e.g.

As machine learning systems are increasingly used to make real world legal and financial decisions, it is of paramount importance that we develop algorithms to verify that these systems do not discriminate against minorities. We design a scalable algorithm for verifying fairness specifications. Our algorithm obtains strong correctness guarantees based on adaptive concentration inequalities; such inequalities enable our algorithm to adaptively take samples until it has enough data to make a decision. We implement our algorithm in a tool called VeriFair, and show that it scales to large machine learning models, including a deep recurrent neural network that is more than five orders of magnitude larger than the largest previously-verified neural network. While our technique only gives probabilistic guarantees due to the use of random samples, we show that we can choose the probability of error to be extremely small.