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Data-driven prediction of a multi-scale Lorenz 96 chaotic system using a hierarchy of deep learning methods: Reservoir computing, ANN, and RNN-LSTM

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, the performance of three deep learning methods for predicting short-term evolution and reproducing the long-term statistics of a multi-scale spatio-temporal Lorenz 96 system is examined. The methods are: echo state network (a type of reservoir computing, RC-ESN), deep feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN), and recurrent neural network with long short-term memory (RNN-LSTM). This Lorenz system has three tiers of nonlinearly interacting variables representing slow/large-scale ($X$), intermediate ($Y$), and fast/small-scale ($Z$) processes. For training or testing, only $X$ is available; $Y$ and $Z$ are never known/used. It is shown that RC-ESN substantially outperforms ANN and RNN-LSTM for short-term prediction, e.g., accurately forecasting the chaotic trajectories for hundreds of numerical solver's time steps, equivalent to several Lyapunov timescales. RNN-LSTM and ANN show some prediction skills as well; RNN-LSTM bests ANN. Furthermore, even after losing the trajectory, data predicted by RC-ESN and RNN-LSTM have probability density functions (PDFs) that closely match the true PDF, even at the tails. PDF of the ANN data deviates from the true PDF. Implications, caveats, and applications to data-driven and inexact, data-assisted surrogate modeling of complex dynamical systems such as weather/climate are discussed.


Variational Quantum Circuits and Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently, machine learning has prevailed in many academia and industrial applications. At the same time, quantum computing, once seen as not realizable, has been brought to markets by several tech giants. However, these machines are not fault-tolerant and can not execute very deep circuits. Therefore, it is urgent to design suitable algorithms and applications implementable on these machines. In this work, we demonstrate a novel approach which applies variational quantum circuits to deep reinforcement learning. With the proposed method, we can implement famous deep reinforcement learning algorithms such as experience replay and target network with variational quantum circuits. In this framework, with appropriate information encoding scheme, the possible quantum advantage is the number of circuit parameters with $poly(\log{} N)$ compared to $poly(N)$ in conventional neural network where $N$ is the dimension of input vectors. Such an approach can be deployed on near-term noisy intermediate-scale quantum machines.


FVA: Modeling Perceived Friendliness of Virtual Agents Using Movement Characteristics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a new approach for improving the friendliness and warmth of a virtual agent in an AR environment by generating appropriate movement characteristics. Our algorithm is based on a novel data-driven friendliness model that is computed using a user-study and psychological characteristics. We use our model to control the movements corresponding to the gaits, gestures, and gazing of friendly virtual agents (FVAs) as they interact with the user's avatar and other agents in the environment. We have integrated FVA agents with an AR environment using with a Microsoft HoloLens. Our algorithm can generate plausible movements at interactive rates to increase the social presence. We also investigate the perception of a user in an AR setting and observe that an FVA has a statistically significant improvement in terms of the perceived friendliness and social presence of a user compared to an agent without the friendliness modeling. We observe an increment of 5.71% in the mean responses to a friendliness measure and an improvement of 4.03% in the mean responses to a social presence measure.


How women, who return to a second career, deal with technology-led disruption

#artificialintelligence

When I went on a break to take care of my children, I was in marketing. When I decided to come back, the work itself had changed to digital marketing," says Franky Aggarwal, a 40-year-old working mother in Pune. Aggarwal, after doing a one-year digital marketing certification course, is now working for a US-based personal care brand through FlexiBees, a platform that reemploys female professionals part-time or on a work-fromhome arrangement. Women are leaving work as young mothers or caregivers, resulting in a leaky talent pipeline across sectors. Even as the pool of second-career women -- those returning to work after a break -- is growing, the tech and digital disruption that is changing the way India Inc works is making it increasingly difficult for them to come back. In fact, technology-led disruption is the newest gender-diversity challenge in corporate India. Companies such as IBM, Microsoft and Ingersoll Rand are rolling out programmes to deal with this. In December 2018, the World Economic Forum's "The Global Gender Gap Report" noted that the increasing expansion of artificial intelligence was creating demand for a range of new skills, among them neural networks, deep learning, machine learning and tools. It said: "Only 22% AI professionals globally are female, compared to 78% who are male.


State of AI Report 2019

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We believe that AI will be a force multiplier on technological progress in our increasingly digital, data-driven world. This is because everything around us today, ranging from culture to consumer products, is a product of intelligence. In this report, we set out to capture a snapshot of the exponential progress in AI with a focus on developments in the past 12 months. Consider this report as a compilation of the most interesting things we've seen with a goal of triggering an informed conversation about the state of AI and its implication for the future. This edition builds on the inaugural State of AI Report 2018, which can be found here: www.stateof.ai/2018 We consider the following key dimensions in our report: - Research: Technology breakthroughs and their capabilities.


3.1. Linear Regression -- Dive into Deep Learning 0.7 documentation

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To keep things simple, we will start with running example in which we consider the problem of estimating the price of a house (e.g. in dollars) based on area (e.g. in square feet) and age (e.g. in years). In economics papers, it is common for authors to write out linear models in this format with a gigantic equation that spans multiple lines containing terms for every single feature. For the high-dimensional data that we often address in machine learning, writing out the entire model can be tedious. In these cases, we will find it more convenient to use linear algebra notation. Above, the vector \(\mathbf{x}\) corresponds to a single data point.


Interpreting AI Is More Than Black And White

#artificialintelligence

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. In the world of artificial intelligence & machine learning (AI & ML), black- and white-box categorization of models and algorithms refers to their interpretability. That is, given a model trained to map data inputs to outputs (e.g. And just as the software testing dichotomy is high-level behavior vs low-level logic, only white-box AI methods can be readily interpreted to see the logic behind models' predictions. In recent years with machine learning taking over new industries and applications, where the number of users far outnumber experts that grok the models and algorithms, the conversation around interpretability has become an important one.


Deep Knowledge: Next Step After Deep Learning

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Assume an individual is represented by a multidimensional utility function that maps to the customer satisfaction domain. This function contains non-linear features and numerous feedback loops which may be negative, positive or either depending on market conditions. To illustrate, let's consider hyperbolic discounting, a well-established non-linear feature from behavior economics. As an exponential, small changes in the market interest rate can cause large changes in value perception. Each individual will have a different response ranging from almost none to dramatic changes in consumption and investment behavior. A change in interest rates could dramatically alter the cluster membership.


Data science and deep learning in retail

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Jeremy Stanley is giving a talk, "How Instacart is Using AI to Create the Most Efficient Shoppers Ever," at the O'Reilly Artificial Intelligence Conference in San Francisco, September 17-20, 2017. Subscribe to the O'Reilly Data Show Podcast to explore the opportunities and techniques driving big data, data science, and AI. Find us on Stitcher, TuneIn, iTunes, SoundCloud, RSS. In this episode of the Data Show, I spoke with Jeremy Stanley, VP of data science at Instacart, a popular grocery delivery service that is expanding rapidly. As Stanley describes it, Instacart operates a four-sided marketplace comprised of retail stores, products within the stores, shoppers assigned to the stores, and customers who order from Instacart.


An Overview of Human Pose Estimation with Deep Learning

#artificialintelligence

A Human Pose Skeleton represents the orientation of a person in a graphical format. Essentially, it is a set of coordinates that can be connected to describe the pose of the person. Each coordinate in the skeleton is known as a part (or a joint, or a keypoint). A valid connection between two parts is known as a pair (or a limb). Note that, not all part combinations give rise to valid pairs. A sample human pose skeleton is shown below.