The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method tries to estimate the probability distribution of the future state of the atmosphere with a set of past observations that correspond to the best analogs of a deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This model post-processing method has been successfully used to improve the forecast accuracy for several weather-related applications including air quality, and short-term wind and solar power forecasting, to name a few. In order to provide a meaningful probabilistic forecast, the AnEn method requires storing a historical set of past predictions and observations in memory for a period of at least several months and spanning the seasons relevant for the prediction of interest. Although the memory and computing costs of the AnEn method are less expensive than using a brute-force dynamical ensemble approach, for a large number of stations and large datasets, the amount of memory required for AnEn can easily become prohibitive. Furthermore, in order to find the best analogs associated with a certain prediction produced by a NWP model, the current approach requires searching over the entire dataset by applying a certain metric. This approach requires applying the metric over the entire historical dataset, which may take a substantial amount of time. In this work, we investigate an alternative way to implement the AnEn method using deep generative models. By doing so, a generative model can entirely or partially replace the dataset of pairs of predictions and observations, reducing the amount of memory required to produce the probabilistic forecast by several orders of magnitude. Furthermore, the generative model can generate a meaningful set of analogs associated with a certain forecast in constant time without performing any search, saving a considerable amount of time even in the presence of huge historical datasets.

Existing graph embedding models often have weaknesses in exploiting graph structure similarities, potential dependencies among nodes and global network properties. To this end, we present U2GAN, a novel unsupervised model leveraging on the strength of the recently introduced universal self-attention network (Dehghani et al., 2019), to learn low-dimensional embeddings of graphs which can be used for graph classification. In particular, given an input graph, U2GAN first applies a self-attention computation, which is then followed by a recurrent transition to iteratively memorize its attention on vector representations of each node and its neighbors across each iteration. Thus, U2GAN can address the weaknesses in the existing models in order to produce plausible node embeddings whose sum is the final embedding of the whole graph. Experimental results show that our unsupervised U2GAN produces new state-of-the-art performances on a range of well-known benchmark datasets for the graph classification task. It even outperforms supervised methods in most of benchmark cases.

Recent works have demonstrated that machine learning models are vulnerable to model inversion attacks, which lead to the exposure of sensitive information contained in their training dataset. While some model inversion attacks have been developed in the past in the black-box attack setting, in which the adversary does not have direct access to the structure of the model, few of these have been conducted so far against complex models such as deep neural networks. In this paper, we introduce GAMIN (for Generative Adversarial Model INversion), a new black-box model inversion attack framework achieving significant results even against deep models such as convolutional neural networks at a reasonable computing cost. GAMIN is based on the continuous training of a surrogate model for the target model under attack and a generator whose objective is to generate inputs resembling those used to train the target model. The attack was validated against various neural networks used as image classifiers. In particular, when attacking models trained on the MNIST dataset, GAMIN is able to extract recognizable digits for up to 60% of labels produced by the target. Attacks against skin classification models trained on the pilot parliament dataset also demonstrated the capacity to extract recognizable features from the targets.

This paper addresses unsupervised domain adaptation, the setting where labeled training data is available on a source domain, but the goal is to have good performance on a target domain with only unlabeled data. Like much of previous work, we seek to align the learned representations of the source and target domains while preserving discriminability. The way we accomplish alignment is by learning to perform auxiliary self-supervised task(s) on both domains simultaneously. Each self-supervised task brings the two domains closer together along the direction relevant to that task. Training this jointly with the main task classifier on the source domain is shown to successfully generalize to the unlabeled target domain. The presented objective is straightforward to implement and easy to optimize. We achieve state-of-the-art results on four out of seven standard benchmarks, and competitive results on segmentation adaptation. We also demonstrate that our method composes well with another popular pixel-level adaptation method. Visual distribution shifts are fundamental to our constantly evolving world. We humans face them all the time, e.g. when we navigate a foreign city, read text in a new font, or recognize objects in an environment we have never encountered before. These real-world challenges to the human visual perception have direct parallels in computer vision.

We propose a novel supervised learning method to optimize the kernel in maximum mean discrepancy generative adversarial networks (MMD GANs). Specifically, we characterize a distributionally robust optimization problem to compute a good distribution for the random feature model of Rahimi and Recht to approximate a good kernel function. Due to the fact that the distributional optimization is infinite dimensional, we consider a Monte-Carlo sample average approximation (SAA) to obtain a more tractable finite dimensional optimization problem. We subsequently leverage a particle stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method to solve finite dimensional optimization problems. Based on a mean-field analysis, we then prove that the empirical distribution of the interactive particles system at each iteration of the SGD follows the path of the gradient descent flow on the Wasserstein manifold. We also establish the non-asymptotic consistency of the finite sample estimator. Our empirical evaluation on synthetic data-set as well as MNIST and CIFAR-10 benchmark data-sets indicates that our proposed MMD GAN model with kernel learning indeed attains higher inception scores well as Fr\`{e}chet inception distances and generates better images compared to the generative moment matching network (GMMN) and MMD GAN with untrained kernels.

Decision forests (DF), in particular random forests and gradient boosting trees, have demonstrated state-of-the-art accuracy compared to other methods in many supervised learning scenarios. In particular, DFs dominate other methods in tabular data, that is, when the feature space is unstructured, so that the signal is invariant to permuting feature indices. However, in structured data lying on a manifold---such as images, text, and speech---neural nets (NN) tend to outperform DFs. We conjecture that at least part of the reason for this is that the input to NN is not simply the feature magnitudes, but also their indices (for example, the convolution operation uses "feature locality"). In contrast, na\"ive DF implementations fail to explicitly consider feature indices. A recently proposed DF approach demonstrates that DFs, for each node, implicitly sample a random matrix from some specific distribution. Here, we build on that to show that one can choose distributions in a \emph{manifold aware fashion}. For example, for image classification, rather than randomly selecting pixels, one can randomly select contiguous patches. We demonstrate the empirical performance of data living on three different manifolds: images, time-series, and a torus. In all three cases, our Manifold Forest (\Mf) algorithm empirically dominates other state-of-the-art approaches that ignore feature space structure, achieving a lower classification error on all sample sizes. This dominance extends to the MNIST data set as well. Moreover, both training and test time is significantly faster for manifold forests as compared to deep nets. This approach, therefore, has promise to enable DFs and other machine learning methods to close the gap with deep nets on manifold-valued data.

We show that Residual Networks (ResNet) is equivalent to boosting feature representation, without any modification to the underlying ResNet training algorithm. A regret bound based on Online Gradient Boosting theory is proved and suggests that ResNet could achieve Online Gradient Boosting regret bounds through neural network architectural changes with the addition of a shrinkage parameter in the identity skip-connections and using residual modules with max-norm bounds. Through this relation between ResNet and Online Boosting, novel feature representation boosting algorithms can be constructed based on altering residual modules. We demonstrate this through proposing decision tree residual modules to construct a new boosted decision tree algorithm and demonstrating generalization error bounds for both approaches; relaxing constraints within BoostResNet algorithm to allow it to be trained in an out-of-core manner. We evaluate convolution ResNet with and without shrinkage modifications to demonstrate its efficacy, and demonstrate that our online boosted decision tree algorithm is comparable to state-of-the-art offline boosted decision tree algorithms without the drawback of offline approaches.

We present a principled approach for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) and adversarial samples in deep neural networks. Our approach consists in modeling the outputs of the various layers (deep features) with parametric probability distributions once training is completed. At inference, the likelihoods of the deep features w.r.t the previously learnt distributions are calculated and used to derive uncertainty estimates that can discriminate in-distribution samples from OOD samples. We explore the use of two classes of multivariate distributions for modeling the deep features - Gaussian and Gaussian mixture - and study the trade-off between accuracy and computational complexity. We demonstrate benefits of our approach on image features by detecting OOD images and adversarially-generated images, using popular DNN architectures on MNIST and CIFAR10 datasets. We show that more precise modeling of the feature distributions result in significantly improved detection of OOD and adversarial samples; up to 12 percentage points in AUPR and AUROC metrics. We further show that our approach remains extremely effective when applied to video data and associated spatio-temporal features by detecting adversarial samples on activity classification tasks using UCF101 dataset, and the C3D network. To our knowledge, our methodology is the first one reported for reliably detecting white-box adversarial framing, a state-of-the-art adversarial attack for video classifiers.

In order to build language technologies for majority of the languages, it is important to leverage the resources available in public domain on the internet - commonly referred to as `Found Data'. However, such data is characterized by the presence of non-standard, non-trivial variations. For instance, speech resources found on the internet have non-speech content, such as music. Therefore, speech recognition and speech synthesis models need to be robust to such variations. In this work, we present an analysis to show that it is important to disentangle the latent causal factors of variation in the original data to accomplish these tasks. Based on this, we present approaches to disentangle such variations from the data using Latent Stochastic Models. Specifically, we present a method to split the latent prior space into continuous representations of dominant speech modes present in the magnitude spectra of audio signals. We propose a completely unsupervised approach using multinode latent space variational autoencoders (VAE). We show that the constraints on the latent space of a VAE can be in-fact used to separate speech and music, independent of the language of the speech. This paper also analytically presents the requirement on the number of latent variables for the task based on distribution of the speech data.

We present GraphMix, a regularization technique for Graph Neural Network based semi-supervised object classification, leveraging the recent advances in the regularization of classical deep neural networks. Specifically, we propose a unified approach in which we train a fully-connected network jointly with the graph neural network via parameter sharing, interpolation-based regularization, and self-predicted-targets. Our proposed method is architecture agnostic in the sense that it can be applied to any variant of graph neural networks which applies a parametric transformation to the features of the graph nodes. Despite its simplicity, with GraphMix we can consistently improve results and achieve or closely match state-of-the-art performance using even simpler architectures such as Graph Convolutional Networks, across three established graph benchmarks: the Cora, Citeseer and Pubmed citation network datasets, as well as three newly proposed datasets : Cora-Full, Co-author-CS and Co-author-Physics.