Deep Learning
U-CNNpred: A Universal CNN-based Predictor for Stock Markets
Hoseinzade, Ehsan, Haratizadeh, Saman, Khoeini, Arash
The performance of financial market prediction systems depends heavily on the quality of features it is using. While researchers have used various techniques for enhancing the stock specific features, less attention has been paid to extracting features that represent general mechanism of financial markets. In this paper, we investigate the importance of extracting such general features in stock market prediction domain and show how it can improve the performance of financial market prediction. We present a framework called U-CNNpred, that uses a CNN-based structure. A base model is trained in a specially designed layer-wise training procedure over a pool of historical data from many financial markets, in order to extract the common patterns from different markets. Our experiments, in which we have used hundreds of stocks in S\&P 500 as well as 14 famous indices around the world, show that this model can outperform baseline algorithms when predicting the directional movement of the markets for which it has been trained for. We also show that the base model can be fine-tuned for predicting new markets and achieve a better performance compared to the state of the art baseline algorithms that focus on constructing market-specific models from scratch.
Diversity-Aware Vehicle Motion Prediction via Latent Semantic Sampling
Huang, Xin, McGill, Stephen G., DeCastro, Jonathan A., Williams, Brian C., Fletcher, Luke, Leonard, John J., Rosman, Guy
--V ehicle trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous driving and advanced driver assistant systems. While existing approaches may sample from a predicted distribution of vehicle trajectories, they lack the ability to explore it - a key ability for evaluating safety from a planning and verification perspective. In this work, we devise a novel approach for generating realistic and diverse vehicle trajectories. We extend the generative adversarial network (GAN) framework with a low-dimensional approximate semantic space, and shape that space to capture semantics such as merging and turning. We sample from this space in a way that mimics the predicted distribution, but allows us to control coverage of semantically distinct outcomes. We validate our approach on a publicly available dataset and show results that achieve state of the art prediction performance, while providing improved coverage of the space of predicted trajectory semantics. V ehicle trajectory prediction is crucial for autonomous driving and advanced driver assistant systems. While existing literature relates to improving the accuracy of prediction [1]-[5], the diversity of the predicted trajectories [6], [7] must be explored.
Patch Reordering: a Novel Way to Achieve Rotation and Translation Invariance in Convolutional Neural Networks
Shen, Xu, Tian, Xinmei, Sun, Shaoyan, Tao, Dacheng
Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance on many visual recognition tasks. However, the combination of convolution and pooling operations only shows invariance to small local location changes in meaningful objects in input. Sometimes, such networks are trained using data augmentation to encode this invariance into the parameters, which restricts the capacity of the model to learn the content of these objects. A more efficient use of the parameter budget is to encode rotation or translation invariance into the model architecture, which relieves the model from the need to learn them. To enable the model to focus on learning the content of objects other than their locations, we propose to conduct patch ranking of the feature maps before feeding them into the next layer. When patch ranking is combined with convolution and pooling operations, we obtain consistent representations despite the location of meaningful objects in input. We show that the patch ranking module improves the performance of the CNN on many benchmark tasks, including MNIST digit recognition, large-scale image recognition, and image retrieval. The code is available at https://github.com//jasonustc/caffe-multigpu/tree/TICNN .
Transform-Invariant Convolutional Neural Networks for Image Classification and Search
Shen, Xu, Tian, Xinmei, He, Anfeng, Sun, Shaoyan, Tao, Dacheng
Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art results on many visual recognition tasks. However, current CNN models still exhibit a poor ability to be invariant to spatial transformations of images. Intuitively, with sufficient layers and parameters, hierarchical combinations of convolution (matrix multiplication and non-linear activation) and pooling operations should be able to learn a robust mapping from transformed input images to transform-invariant representations. In this paper, we propose randomly transforming (rotation, scale, and translation) feature maps of CNNs during the training stage. This prevents complex dependencies of specific rotation, scale, and translation levels of training images in CNN models. Rather, each convolutional kernel learns to detect a feature that is generally helpful for producing the transform-invariant answer given the combinatorially large variety of transform levels of its input feature maps. In this way, we do not require any extra training supervision or modification to the optimization process and training images. We show that random transformation provides significant improvements of CNNs on many benchmark tasks, including small-scale image recognition, large-scale image recognition, and image retrieval. The code is available at https://github.com/jasonustc/caffe-multigpu/tree/TICNN.
A Case for the Score: Identifying Image Anomalies using Variational Autoencoder Gradients
Zimmerer, David, Petersen, Jens, Kohl, Simon A. A., Maier-Hein, Klaus H.
Through training on unlabeled data, anomaly detection has the potential to impact computer-aided diagnosis by outlining suspicious regions. Previous work on deep-learning-based anomaly detection has primarily focused on the reconstruction error. We argue instead, that pixel-wise anomaly ratings derived from a Variational Autoencoder based score approximation yield a theoretically better grounded and more faithful estimate. In our experiments, Variational Autoencoder gradient-based rating outperforms other approaches on unsupervised pixel-wise tumor detection on the BraTS-2017 dataset with a ROC-AUC of 0.94.
Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning with Adaptive Policies
We propose a novel approach to address one aspect of the non-stationarity problem in multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL), where the other agents may alter their policies due to environment changes during execution. This violates the Markov assumption that governs most single-agent RL methods and is one of the key challenges in multi-agent RL. To tackle this, we propose to train multiple policies for each agent and postpone the selection of the best policy at execution time. Specifically, we model the environment non-stationarity with a finite set of scenarios and train policies fitting each scenario. In addition to multiple policies, each agent also learns a policy predictor to determine which policy is the best with its local information. By doing so, each agent is able to adapt its policy when the environment changes and consequentially the other agents alter their policies during execution. We empirically evaluated our method on a variety of common benchmark problems proposed for multi-agent deep RL in the literature. Our experimental results show that the agents trained by our algorithm have better adaptiveness in changing environments and outperform the state-of-the-art methods in all the tested environments.
Playing Games in the Dark: An approach for cross-modality transfer in reinforcement learning
Silva, Rui, Vasco, Miguel, Melo, Francisco S., Paiva, Ana, Veloso, Manuela
In this work we explore the use of latent representations obtained from multiple input sensory modalities (such as images or sounds) in allowing an agent to learn and exploit policies over different subsets of input modalities. We propose a three-stage architecture that allows a reinforcement learning agent trained over a given sensory modality, to execute its task on a different sensory modality --for example, learning a visual policy over image inputs, and the n execute such policy when only sound inputs are available. We show that the generalized policies achieve better out-of-the-b ox performance when compared to different baselines. Moreover, we sho w this holds in different OpenAI gym and video game environments, even when using different multimodal generative models and reinforcement learning algorithms.
Option-critic in cooperative multi-agent systems
Chakravorty, Jhelum, Ward, Nadeem, Roy, Julien, Chevalier-Boisvert, Maxime, Basu, Sumana, Lupu, Andrei, Precup, Doina
In this paper, we investigate learning temporal abstractions in cooperative multi-agent systems using the options framework (Sutton et al, 1999) and provide a model-free algorithm for this problem. First, we address the planning problem for the decentralized POMDP represented by the multi-agent system, by introducing a common information approach. We use common beliefs and broadcasting to solve an equivalent centralized POMDP problem. Then, we propose the Distributed Option Critic (DOC) algorithm, motivated by the work of Bacon et al (2017) in the single-agent setting. Our approach uses centralized option evaluation and decentralized intra-option improvement. We analyze theoretically the asymptotic convergence of DOC and validate its performance in grid-world environments, where we implement DOC using a deep neural network. Our experiments show that DOC performs competitively with state-of-the-art algorithms and that it is scalable when the number of agents increases.
Spatiotemporal deep learning model for citywide air pollution interpolation and prediction
Le, Van-Duc, Bui, Tien-Cuong, Cha, Sang Kyun
Recently, air pollution is one of the most concerns for big cities. Predicting air quality for any regions and at any time is a critical requirement of urban citizens. However, air pollution prediction for the whole city is a challenging problem. The reason is, there are many spatiotemporal factors affecting air pollution throughout the city. Collecting as many of them could help us to forecast air pollution better. In this research, we present many spatiotemporal datasets collected over Seoul city in Korea, which is currently much suffered by air pollution problem as well. These datasets include air pollution data, meteorological data, traffic volume, average driving speed, and air pollution indexes of external areas which are known to impact Seoul's air pollution. To the best of our knowledge, traffic volume and average driving speed data are two new datasets in air pollution research. In addition, recent research in air pollution has tried to build models to interpolate and predict air pollution in the city. Nevertheless, they mostly focused on predicting air quality in discrete locations or used hand-crafted spatial and temporal features. In this paper, we propose the usage of Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) model \cite{b16}, a combination of Convolutional Neural Networks and Long Short-Term Memory, which automatically manipulates both the spatial and temporal features of the data. Specially, we introduce how to transform the air pollution data into sequences of images which leverages the using of ConvLSTM model to interpolate and predict air quality for the entire city at the same time. We prove that our approach is suitable for spatiotemporal air pollution problems and also outperforms other related research.
Decoding Cosmological Information in Weak-Lensing Mass Maps with Generative Adversarial Networks
Shirasaki, Masato, Yoshida, Naoki, Ikeda, Shiro, Oogi, Taira, Nishimichi, Takahiro
Galaxy imaging surveys enable us to map the cosmic matter density field through weak gravitational lensing analysis. The density reconstruction is compromised by a variety of noise originating from observational conditions, galaxy number density fluctuations, and intrinsic galaxy properties. We propose a deep-learning approach based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) to reduce the noise in the weak lensing map under realistic conditions. We perform image-to-image translation using conditional GANs in order to produce noiseless lensing maps using the first-year data of the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey. We train the conditional GANs by using 30000 sets of mock HSC catalogs that directly incorporate observational effects. We show that an ensemble learning method with GANs can reproduce the one-point probability distribution function (PDF) of the lensing convergence map within a $0.5-1\sigma$ level. We use the reconstructed PDFs to estimate a cosmological parameter $S_{8} = \sigma_{8}\sqrt{\Omega_{\rm m0}/0.3}$, where $\Omega_{\rm m0}$ and $\sigma_{8}$ represent the mean and the scatter in the cosmic matter density. The reconstructed PDFs place tighter constraint, with the statistical uncertainty in $S_8$ reduced by a factor of $2$ compared to the noisy PDF. This is equivalent to increasing the survey area by $4$ without denoising by GANs. Finally, we apply our denoising method to the first-year HSC data, to place $2\sigma$-level cosmological constraints of $S_{8} < 0.777 \, ({\rm stat}) + 0.105 \, ({\rm sys})$ and $S_{8} < 0.633 \, ({\rm stat}) + 0.114 \, ({\rm sys})$ for the noisy and denoised data, respectively.