Catastrophe theory was originally proposed to study dynamical systems that exhibit sudden shifts in behavior arising from small changes in input. These models can generate reasonable explanation behind abrupt jumps in nonlinear dynamic models. Among the different catastrophe models, the Cusp Catastrophe model attracted the most attention due to it's relatively simpler dynamics and rich domain of application. Due to the complex behavior of the response, the parameter space becomes highly non-convex and hence it becomes very hard to optimize to figure out the generating parameters. Instead of solving for these generating parameters, we demonstrated how a Machine learning model can be trained to learn the dynamics of the Cusp catastrophe models, without ever really solving for the generating model parameters. Simulation studies and application on a few famous datasets are used to validate our approach. To our knowledge, this is the first paper of such kind where a neural network based approach has been applied in Cusp Catastrophe model.

Bootstrap aggregation, known as bagging, is one of the most popular ensemble methods used in machine learning (ML). An ensemble method is a supervised ML method that combines multiple hypotheses to form a single hypothesis used for prediction. A bagging algorithm combines multiple classifiers modelled on different sub-samples of the same data set to build one large classifier. Large retail banks are nowadays using the power of ML algorithms, including decision trees and random forests, to optimize the retail banking activities. However, AI bank researchers face a strong challenge from their own model validation department as well as from national financial regulators. Each proposed ML model has to be validated and clear rules for every algorithm-based decision have to be established. In this context, we propose XtracTree, an algorithm that is capable of effectively converting an ML bagging classifier, such as a decision tree or a random forest, into simple "if-then" rules satisfying the requirements of model validation. Our algorithm is also capable of highlighting the decision path for each individual sample or a group of samples, addressing any concern from the regulators regarding ML "black-box". We use a public loan data set from Kaggle to illustrate the usefulness of our approach. Our experiments indicate that, using XtracTree, we are able to ensure a better understanding for our model, leading to an easier model validation by national financial regulators and the internal model validation department.

At present, artificial intelligence in the form of machine learning is making impressive progress, especially the field of deep learning (DL) [1]. Deep learning algorithms have been inspired from the beginning by nature, specifically by the human brain, in spite of our incomplete knowledge about its brain function. Learning from nature is a two-way process as discussed in [2][3][4], computing is learning from neuroscience, while neuroscience is quickly adopting information processing models. The question is, what can the inspiration from computational nature at this stage of the development contribute to deep learning and how much models and experiments in machine learning can motivate, justify and lead research in neuroscience and cognitive science and to practical applications of artificial intelligence.

The deployment of deep learning applications has to address the growing privacy concerns when using private and sensitive data for training. A conventional deep learning model is prone to privacy attacks that can recover the sensitive information of individuals from either model parameters or accesses to the target model. Recently, differential privacy that offers provable privacy guarantees has been proposed to train neural networks in a privacy-preserving manner to protect training data. However, many approaches tend to provide the worst case privacy guarantees for model publishing, inevitably impairing the accuracy of the trained models. In this paper, we present a novel private knowledge transfer strategy, where the private teacher trained on sensitive data is not publicly accessible but teaches a student to be publicly released. In particular, a three-player (teacher-student-discriminator) learning framework is proposed to achieve trade-off between utility and privacy, where the student acquires the distilled knowledge from the teacher and is trained with the discriminator to generate similar outputs as the teacher. We then integrate a differential privacy protection mechanism into the learning procedure, which enables a rigorous privacy budget for the training. The framework eventually allows student to be trained with only unlabelled public data and very few epochs, and hence prevents the exposure of sensitive training data, while ensuring model utility with a modest privacy budget. The experiments on MNIST, SVHN and CIFAR-10 datasets show that our students obtain the accuracy losses w.r.t teachers of 0.89%, 2.29%, 5.16%, respectively with the privacy bounds of (1.93, 10^-5), (5.02, 10^-6), (8.81, 10^-6). When compared with the existing works \cite{papernot2016semi,wang2019private}, the proposed work can achieve 5-82% accuracy loss improvement.

When trained effectively, the Variational Autoencoder (VAE) can be both a powerful generative model and an effective representation learning framework for natural language. In this paper, we propose the first large-scale language VAE model, Optimus. A universal latent embedding space for sentences is first pre-trained on large text corpus, and then fine-tuned for various language generation and understanding tasks. Compared with GPT-2, Optimus enables guided language generation from an abstract level using the latent vectors. Compared with BERT, Optimus can generalize better on low-resource language understanding tasks due to the smooth latent space structure. Extensive experimental results on a wide range of language tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of Optimus. It achieves new state-of-the-art on VAE language modeling benchmarks. We hope that our first pre-trained big VAE language model itself and results can help the NLP community renew the interests of deep generative models in the era of large-scale pre-training, and make these principled methods more practical.

Deep learning based models have surpassed classical machine learning based approaches in various text classification tasks, including sentiment analysis, news categorization, question answering, and natural language inference. In this work, we provide a detailed review of more than 150 deep learning based models for text classification developed in recent years, and discuss their technical contributions, similarities, and strengths. We also provide a summary of more than 40 popular datasets widely used for text classification. Finally, we provide a quantitative analysis of the performance of different deep learning models on popular benchmarks, and discuss future research directions.

Sparse and irregularly sampled multivariate time series are common in clinical, climate, financial and many other domains. Most recent approaches focus on classification, regression or forecasting tasks on such data. In forecasting, it is necessary to not only forecast the right value but also to forecast when that value will occur in the irregular time series. In this work, we present an approach to forecast not only the values but also the time at which they are expected to occur.

Obtaining accurate information about future traffic flows of all links in a traffic network is of great importance for traffic management and control applications. This research studies two particular problems in traffic forecasting: (1) capture the dynamic and non-local spatial correlation between traffic links and (2) model the dynamics of temporal dependency for accurate multiple steps ahead predictions. To address these issues, we propose a deep learning framework named Spatial-Temporal Sequence to Sequence model (STSeq2Seq). This model builds on sequence to sequence (seq2seq) architecture to capture temporal feature and relies on graph convolution for aggregating spatial information. Moreover, STSeq2Seq defines and constructs pattern-aware adjacency matrices (PAMs) based on pair-wise similarity of the recent traffic patterns on traffic links and integrate it into graph convolution operation. It also deploys a novel seq2sesq architecture which couples a convolutional encoder and a recurrent decoder with attention mechanism for dynamic modeling of long-range dependence between different time steps. We conduct extensive experiments using two publicly-available large-scale traffic datasets and compare STSeq2Seq with other baseline models. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance in terms of various error measures. The ablation study verifies the effectiveness of PAMs in capturing dynamic non-local spatial correlation and the superiority of proposed seq2seq architecture in modeling non-stationary temporal dependency for multiple steps ahead prediction. Furthermore, qualitative analysis is conducted on PAMs as well as the attention weights for model interpretation.

We cast neural machine translation (NMT) as a classification task in an autoregressive setting and analyze the limitations of both classification and autoregression components. Classifiers are known to perform better with balanced class distributions during training. Since the Zipfian nature of languages causes imbalanced classes, we explore the effect of class imbalance on NMT. We analyze the effect of vocabulary sizes on NMT performance and reveal an explanation for 'why' certain vocabulary sizes are better than others.

Accurately modeling the nonlinear dynamics of a system from measurement data is a challenging yet vital topic. The sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) algorithm is one approach to discover dynamical systems models from data. Although extensions have been developed to identify implicit dynamics, or dynamics described by rational functions, these extensions are extremely sensitive to noise. In this work, we develop SINDy-PI (parallel, implicit), a robust variant of the SINDy algorithm to identify implicit dynamics and rational nonlinearities. The SINDy-PI framework includes multiple optimization algorithms and a principled approach to model selection. We demonstrate the ability of this algorithm to learn implicit ordinary and partial differential equations and conservation laws from limited and noisy data. In particular, we show that the proposed approach is several orders of magnitude more noise robust than previous approaches, and may be used to identify a class of complex ODE and PDE dynamics that were previously unattainable with SINDy, including for the double pendulum dynamics and the Belousov Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction.