Granger causality method analyzes the time series causalities without building a complex causality graph. However, the traditional Granger causality method assumes that the causalities lie between time series channels and remain constant, which cannot model the real-world time series data with dynamic causalities along the time series channels. In this paper, we present the dynamic window-level Granger causality method (DWGC) for multi-channel time series data. We build the causality model on the window-level by doing the F-test with the forecasting errors on the sliding windows. We propose the causality indexing trick in our DWGC method to reweight the original time series data. Essentially, the causality indexing is to decrease the auto-correlation and increase the cross-correlation causal effects, which improves the DWGC method. Theoretical analysis and experimental results on two synthetic and one real-world datasets show that the improved DWGC method with causality indexing better detects the window-level causalities.

In this paper we develop numerical pricing methodologies for European style Exchange Options written on a pair of correlated assets, in a market with finite liquidity. In contrast to the standard multi-asset Black-Scholes framework, trading in our market model has a direct impact on the asset's price. The price impact is incorporated into the dynamics of the first asset through a specific trading strategy, as in large trader liquidity model. Two-dimensional Milstein scheme is implemented to simulate the pair of assets prices. The option value is numerically estimated by Monte Carlo with the Margrabe option as controlled variate. Time complexity of these numerical schemes are included. Finally, we provide a deep learning framework to implement this model effectively in a production environment.

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have been drawing significant attention with the power of representation learning on graphs. Unlike Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), which are able to take advantage of stacking very deep layers, GCNs suffer from vanishing gradient, over-smoothing and over-fitting issues when going deeper. These challenges limit the representation power of GCNs on large-scale graphs. This paper proposes DeeperGCN that is capable of successfully and reliably training very deep GCNs. We define differentiable generalized aggregation functions to unify different message aggregation operations (e.g. mean, max). We also propose a novel normalization layer namely MsgNorm and a pre-activation version of residual connections for GCNs. Extensive experiments on Open Graph Benchmark (OGB) show DeeperGCN significantly boosts performance over the state-of-the-art on the large scale graph learning tasks of node property prediction and graph property prediction. Please visit https://www.deepgcns.org for more information.

A recently-proposed technique called self-adaptive training augments modern neural networks by allowing them to adjust training labels on the fly, to avoid overfitting to samples that may be mislabeled or otherwise non-representative. By combining the self-adaptive objective with mixup, we further improve the accuracy of self-adaptive models for image recognition; the resulting classifier obtains state-of-the-art accuracies on datasets corrupted with label noise. Robustness to label noise implies a lower generalization gap; thus, our approach also leads to improved generalizability. We find evidence that the Rademacher complexity of these algorithms is low, suggesting a new path towards provable generalization for this type of deep learning model. Last, we highlight a novel connection between difficulties accounting for rare classes and robustness under noise, as rare classes are in a sense indistinguishable from label noise. Our code can be found at https://github.com/Tuxianeer/generalizationconfusion.

We investigate whether the Wigner semi-circle and Marcenko-Pastur distributions, often used for deep neural network theoretical analysis, match empirically observed spectral densities. We find that even allowing for outliers, the observed spectral shapes strongly deviate from such theoretical predictions. This raises major questions about the usefulness of these models in deep learning. We further show that theoretical results, such as the layered nature of critical points, are strongly dependent on the use of the exact form of these limiting spectral densities. We consider two new classes of matrix ensembles; random Wigner/Wishart ensemble products and percolated Wigner/Wishart ensembles, both of which better match observed spectra. They also give large discrete spectral peaks at the origin, providing a theoretical explanation for the observation that various optima can be connected by one dimensional of low loss values. We further show that, in the case of a random matrix product, the weight of the discrete spectral component at $0$ depends on the ratio of the dimensions of the weight matrices.

We use a conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network to predict the geopotential height of the 500 hPa pressure level, the two-meter temperature and the total precipitation for the next 24 hours over Europe. The proposed models are trained on 4 years of ERA5 reanalysis data from 2015-2018 with the goal to predict the associated meteorological fields in 2019. The forecasts show a good qualitative and quantitative agreement with the true reanalysis data for the geopotential height and two-meter temperature, while failing for total precipitation, thus indicating that weather forecasts based on data alone may be possible for specific meteorological parameters. We further use Monte-Carlo dropout to develop an ensemble weather prediction system based purely on deep learning strategies, which is computationally cheap and further improves the skill of the forecasting model, by allowing to quantify the uncertainty in the current weather forecast as learned by the model.

Transfer learning, which is to improve the learning performance in the target domain by leveraging useful knowledge from the source domain, often requires that those two domains are very close, which limits its application scope. Recently, distant transfer learning has been studied to transfer knowledge between two distant or even totally unrelated domains via auxiliary domains that are usually unlabeled as a bridge in the spirit of human transitive inference that it is possible to connect two completely unrelated concepts together through gradual knowledge transfer. In this paper, we study distant transfer learning by proposing a DeEp Random Walk basEd distaNt Transfer (DERWENT) method. Different from existing distant transfer learning models that implicitly identify the path of knowledge transfer between the source and target instances through auxiliary instances, the proposed DERWENT model can explicitly learn such paths via the deep random walk technique. Specifically, based on sequences identified by the random walk technique on a data graph where source and target data have no direct edges, the proposed DERWENT model enforces adjacent data points in a squence to be similar, makes the ending data point be represented by other data points in the same sequence, and considers weighted training losses of source data. Empirical studies on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed DERWENT algorithm yields the state-of-the-art performance.

Uncertainty quantification is an important research area in machine learning. Many approaches have been developed to improve the representation of uncertainty in deep models to avoid overconfident predictions. Existing ones such as Bayesian neural networks and ensemble methods require modifications to the training procedures and are computationally costly for both training and inference. Motivated by this, we propose mean-field infinitesimal jackknife (mfIJ) -- a simple, efficient, and general-purpose plug-in estimator for uncertainty estimation. The main idea is to use infinitesimal jackknife, a classical tool from statistics for uncertainty estimation to construct a pseudo-ensemble that can be described with a closed-form Gaussian distribution, without retraining. We then use this Gaussian distribution for uncertainty estimation. While the standard way is to sample models from this distribution and combine each sample's prediction, we develop a mean-field approximation to the inference where Gaussian random variables need to be integrated with the softmax nonlinear functions to generate probabilities for multinomial variables. The approach has many appealing properties: it functions as an ensemble without requiring multiple models, and it enables closed-form approximate inference using only the first and second moments of Gaussians. Empirically, mfIJ performs competitively when compared to state-of-the-art methods, including deep ensembles, temperature scaling, dropout and Bayesian NNs, on important uncertainty tasks. It especially outperforms many methods on out-of-distribution detection.

Bidding in real-time auctions can be a difficult stochastic control task; especially if underdelivery incurs strong penalties and the market is very uncertain. Most current works and implementations focus on optimally delivering a campaign given a reasonable forecast of the market. Practical implementations have a feedback loop to adjust and be robust to forecasting errors, but no implementation, to the best of our knowledge, uses a model of market risk and actively anticipates market shifts. Solving such stochastic control problems in practice is actually very challenging. This paper proposes an approximate solution based on a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture that is both effective and practical for implementation in a production environment. The RNN bidder provisions everything it needs to avoid missing its goal. It also deliberately falls short of its goal when buying the missing impressions would cost more than the penalty for not reaching it.

Regularization and transfer learning are two popular techniques to enhance generalization on unseen data, which is a fundamental problem of machine learning. Regularization techniques are versatile, as they are task- and architecture-agnostic, but they do not exploit a large amount of data available. Transfer learning methods learn to transfer knowledge from one domain to another, but may not generalize across tasks and architectures, and may introduce new training cost for adapting to the target task. To bridge the gap between the two, we propose a transferable perturbation, MetaPerturb, which is meta-learned to improve generalization performance on unseen data. MetaPerturb is implemented as a set-based lightweight network that is agnostic to the size and the order of the input, which is shared across the layers. Then, we propose a meta-learning framework, to jointly train the perturbation function over heterogeneous tasks in parallel. As MetaPerturb is a set-function trained over diverse distributions across layers and tasks, it can generalize to heterogeneous tasks and architectures. We validate the efficacy and generality of MetaPerturb trained on a specific source domain and architecture, by applying it to the training of diverse neural architectures on heterogeneous target datasets against various regularizers and fine-tuning. The results show that the networks trained with MetaPerturb significantly outperform the baselines on most of the tasks and architectures, with a negligible increase in the parameter size and no hyperparameters to tune.