This work investigates the problem of multi-agents trajectory prediction. Prior approaches lack of capability of capturing fine-grained dependencies among coordinated agents. In this paper, we propose a spatial-temporal trajectory prediction approach that is able to learn the strategy of a team with multiple coordinated agents. In particular, we use graph-based attention model to learn the dependency of the agents. In addition, instead of utilizing the recurrent networks (e.g., VRNN, LSTM), our method uses a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) as the sequential model to support long effective history and provide important features such as parallelism and stable gradients. We demonstrate the validation and effectiveness of our approach on two different sports game datasets: basketball and soccer datasets. The result shows that compared to related approaches, our model that infers the dependency of players yields substantially improved performance. Code is available at https://github.com/iHeartGraph/predict

Condition-based monitoring (CBM) has been widely utilised in the wind industry for monitoring operational inconsistencies and failures in turbines, with techniques ranging from signal processing and vibration analysis to artificial intelligence (AI) models using Supervisory Control & Acquisition (SCADA) data. However, existing studies do not present a concrete basis to facilitate explainable decision support in operations and maintenance (O&M), particularly for automated decision support through recommendation of appropriate maintenance action reports corresponding to failures predicted by CBM techniques. Knowledge graph databases (KGs) model a collection of domain-specific information and have played an intrinsic role for real-world decision support in domains such as healthcare and finance, but have seen very limited attention in the wind industry. We propose XAI4Wind, a multimodal knowledge graph for explainable decision support in real-world operational turbines and demonstrate through experiments several use-cases of the proposed KG towards O&M planning through interactive query and reasoning and providing novel insights using graph data science algorithms. The proposed KG combines multimodal knowledge like SCADA parameters and alarms with natural language maintenance actions, images etc. By integrating our KG with an Explainable AI model for anomaly prediction, we show that it can provide effective human-intelligible O&M strategies for predicted operational inconsistencies in various turbine sub-components. This can help instil better trust and confidence in conventionally black-box AI models. We make our KG publicly available and envisage that it can serve as the building ground for providing autonomous decision support in the wind industry.

Adversarial attacks against deep neural networks are continuously evolving. Without effective defenses, they can lead to catastrophic failure. The long-standing and arguably most powerful natural defense system is the mammalian immune system, which has successfully defended against attacks by novel pathogens for millions of years. In this paper, we propose a new adversarial defense framework, called the Robust Adversarial Immune-inspired Learning System (RAILS). RAILS incorporates an Adaptive Immune System Emulation (AISE), which emulates in silico the biological mechanisms that are used to defend the host against attacks by pathogens. We use RAILS to harden Deep k-Nearest Neighbor (DkNN) architectures against evasion attacks. Evolutionary programming is used to simulate processes in the natural immune system: B-cell flocking, clonal expansion, and affinity maturation. We show that the RAILS learning curve exhibits similar diversity-selection learning phases as observed in our in vitro biological experiments. When applied to adversarial image classification on three different datasets, RAILS delivers an additional 5.62%/12.56%/4.74% robustness improvement as compared to applying DkNN alone, without appreciable loss of accuracy on clean data.

Active learning aims to develop label-efficient algorithms by querying the most representative samples to be labeled by a human annotator. Current active learning techniques either rely on model uncertainty to select the most uncertain samples or use clustering or reconstruction to choose the most diverse set of unlabeled examples. While uncertainty-based strategies are susceptible to outliers, solely relying on sample diversity does not capture the information available on the main task. In this work, we develop a semi-supervised minimax entropy-based active learning algorithm that leverages both uncertainty and diversity in an adversarial manner. Our model consists of an entropy minimizing feature encoding network followed by an entropy maximizing classification layer. This minimax formulation reduces the distribution gap between the labeled/unlabeled data, while a discriminator is simultaneously trained to distinguish the labeled/unlabeled data. The highest entropy samples from the classifier that the discriminator predicts as unlabeled are selected for labeling. We extensively evaluate our method on various image classification and semantic segmentation benchmark datasets and show superior performance over the state-of-the-art methods.

Small business classification is a difficult and important task within many applications, including customer segmentation. Training on small business names introduces gender and geographic origin biases. A model for predicting one of 66 business types based only upon the business name was developed in this work (top-1 f1-score = 60.2%). Two approaches to removing the bias from this model are explored: replacing given names with a placeholder token, and augmenting the training data with gender-swapped examples. The results for these approaches is reported, and the bias in the model was reduced by hiding given names from the model. However, bias reduction was accomplished at the expense of classification performance (top-1 f1-score = 56.6%). Augmentation of the training data with gender-swapping samples proved less effective at bias reduction than the name hiding approach on the evaluated dataset.

TVQA is a large scale video question answering (video-QA) dataset based on popular TV shows. The questions were specifically designed to require "both vision and language understanding to answer". In this work, we demonstrate an inherent bias in the dataset towards the textual subtitle modality. We infer said bias both directly and indirectly, notably finding that models trained with subtitles learn, on-average, to suppress video feature contribution. Our results demonstrate that models trained on only the visual information can answer ~45% of the questions, while using only the subtitles achieves ~68%. We find that a bilinear pooling based joint representation of modalities damages model performance by 9% implying a reliance on modality specific information. We also show that TVQA fails to benefit from the RUBi modality bias reduction technique popularised in VQA. By simply improving text processing using BERT embeddings with the simple model first proposed for TVQA, we achieve state-of-the-art results (72.13%) compared to the highly complex STAGE model (70.50%). We recommend a multimodal evaluation framework that can highlight biases in models and isolate visual and textual reliant subsets of data. Using this framework we propose subsets of TVQA that respond exclusively to either or both modalities in order to facilitate multimodal modelling as TVQA originally intended.

Hero drafting is essential in MOBA game playing as it builds the team of each side and directly affects the match outcome. State-of-the-art drafting methods fail to consider: 1) drafting efficiency when the hero pool is expanded; 2) the multi-round nature of a MOBA 5v5 match series, i.e., two teams play best-of-N and the same hero is only allowed to be drafted once throughout the series. In this paper, we formulate the drafting process as a multi-round combinatorial game and propose a novel drafting algorithm based on neural networks and Monte-Carlo tree search, named JueWuDraft. Specifically, we design a long-term value estimation mechanism to handle the best-of-N drafting case. Taking Honor of Kings, one of the most popular MOBA games at present, as a running case, we demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of JueWuDraft when compared to state-of-the-art drafting methods.

Recent papers in explainable AI have made a compelling case for counterfactual modes of explanation. While counterfactual explanations appear to be extremely effective in some instances, they are formally equivalent to adversarial examples. This presents an apparent paradox for explainability researchers: if these two procedures are formally equivalent, what accounts for the explanatory divide apparent between counterfactual explanations and adversarial examples? We resolve this paradox by placing emphasis back on the semantics of counterfactual expressions. Producing satisfactory explanations for deep learning systems will require that we find ways to interpret the semantics of hidden layer representations in deep neural networks.

Methods of deep learning have become increasingly popular in recent years, but they have not arrived in compositional data analysis. Imputation methods for compositional data are typically applied on additive, centered or isometric log-ratio representations of the data. Generally, methods for compositional data analysis can only be applied to observed positive entries in a data matrix. Therefore one tries to impute missing values or measurements that were below a detection limit. In this paper, a new method for imputing rounded zeros based on artificial neural networks is shown and compared with conventional methods. We are also interested in the question whether for ANNs, a representation of the data in log-ratios for imputation purposes, is relevant. It can be shown, that ANNs are competitive or even performing better when imputing rounded zeros of data sets with moderate size. They deliver better results when data sets are big. Also, we can see that log-ratio transformations within the artificial neural network imputation procedure nevertheless help to improve the results. This proves that the theory of compositional data analysis and the fulfillment of all properties of compositional data analysis is still very important in the age of deep learning.

Investors try to predict returns of financial assets to make successful investment. Many quantitative analysts have used machine learning-based methods to find unknown profitable market rules from large amounts of market data. However, there are several challenges in financial markets hindering practical applications of machine learning-based models. First, in financial markets, there is no single model that can consistently make accurate prediction because traders in markets quickly adapt to newly available information. Instead, there are a number of ephemeral and partially correct models called "alpha factors". Second, since financial markets are highly uncertain, ensuring interpretability of prediction models is quite important to make reliable trading strategies. To overcome these challenges, we propose the Trader-Company method, a novel evolutionary model that mimics the roles of a financial institute and traders belonging to it. Our method predicts future stock returns by aggregating suggestions from multiple weak learners called Traders. A Trader holds a collection of simple mathematical formulae, each of which represents a candidate of an alpha factor and would be interpretable for real-world investors. The aggregation algorithm, called a Company, maintains multiple Traders. By randomly generating new Traders and retraining them, Companies can efficiently find financially meaningful formulae whilst avoiding overfitting to a transient state of the market. We show the effectiveness of our method by conducting experiments on real market data.