The combination of deep learning and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has shown to be effective in various domains, such as board and video games. AlphaGo represented a significant step forward in our ability to learn complex board games, and it was rapidly followed by significant advances, such as AlphaGo Zero and AlphaZero. Recently, MuZero demonstrated that it is possible to master both Atari games and board games by directly learning a model of the environment, which is then used with MCTS to decide what move to play in each position. During tree search, the algorithm simulates games by exploring several possible moves and then picks the action that corresponds to the most promising trajectory. When training, limited use is made of these simulated games since none of their trajectories are directly used as training examples. Even if we consider that not all trajectories from simulated games are useful, there are thousands of potentially useful trajectories that are discarded. Using information from these trajectories would provide more training data, more quickly, leading to faster convergence and higher sample efficiency. Recent work introduced an off-policy value target for AlphaZero that uses data from simulated games. In this work, we propose a way to obtain off-policy targets using data from simulated games in MuZero. We combine these off-policy targets with the on-policy targets already used in MuZero in several ways, and study the impact of these targets and their combinations in three environments with distinct characteristics. When used in the right combinations, our results show that these targets speed up the training process and lead to faster convergence and higher rewards than the ones obtained by MuZero.

Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate irrespective of whether we are dealing with the actual climate system or surrogate climate-models. In this context, the Linear-Inverse-Modeling (LIM) approach, by capturing a few essential interactions between dynamical components of the full system, has proven valuable in providing insights into predictability of the full system. We demonstrate that Reservoir Computing (RC), a form of learning suitable for systems with chaotic dynamics, provides an alternative nonlinear approach that improves on the predictive skill of the LIM approach. We do this in the example setting of predicting sea-surface-temperature in the North Atlantic in the pre-industrial control simulation of a popular earth system model, the Community-Earth-System-Model so that we can compare the performance of the new RC based approach with the traditional LIM approach both when learning data is plentiful and when such data is more limited. The improved predictive skill of the RC approach over a wide range of conditions -- larger number of retained EOF coefficients, extending well into the limited data regime, etc. -- suggests that this machine-learning technique may have a use in climate predictability studies. While the possibility of developing a climate emulator -- the ability to continue the evolution of the system on the attractor long after failing to be able to track the reference trajectory -- is demonstrated in the Lorenz-63 system, it is suggested that further development of the RC approach may permit such uses of the new approach in more realistic predictability studies.

Deep learning-based models are utilized to achieve state-of-the-art performance for recommendation systems. A key challenge for these models is to work with millions of categorical classes or tokens. The standard approach is to learn end-to-end, dense latent representations or embeddings for each token. The resulting embeddings require large amounts of memory that blow up with the number of tokens. Training and inference with these models create storage, and memory bandwidth bottlenecks leading to significant computing and energy consumption when deployed in practice. To this end, we present the problem of \textit{Memory Allocation} under budget for embeddings and propose a novel formulation of memory shared embedding, where memory is shared in proportion to the overlap in semantic information. Our formulation admits a practical and efficient randomized solution with Locality sensitive hashing based Memory Allocation (LMA). We demonstrate a significant reduction in the memory footprint while maintaining performance. In particular, our LMA embeddings achieve the same performance compared to standard embeddings with a 16$\times$ reduction in memory footprint. Moreover, LMA achieves an average improvement of over 0.003 AUC across different memory regimes than standard DLRM models on Criteo and Avazu datasets

We introduce a principled approach to detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data by exploiting a connection to data curation. In data curation, we exclude ambiguous or difficult-to-classify input points from the dataset, and these excluded points are by definition OOD. We can therefore obtain the likelihood for OOD points by using a principled generative model of data-curation initially developed to explain the cold-posterior effect in Bayesian neural networks (Aitchison 2020). This model gives higher OOD probabilities when predictive uncertainty is higher and can be trained using maximum-likelihood jointly over the in-distribution and OOD points. This approach gives superior performance to past methods that did not provide a probability for OOD points, and therefore could not be trained using maximum-likelihood.

Learning from heterogeneous data poses challenges such as combining data from various sources and of different types. Meanwhile, heterogeneous data are often associated with missingness in real-world applications due to heterogeneity and noise of input sources. In this work, we propose the variational selective autoencoder (VSAE), a general framework to learn representations from partially-observed heterogeneous data. VSAE learns the latent dependencies in heterogeneous data by modeling the joint distribution of observed data, unobserved data, and the imputation mask which represents how the data are missing. It results in a unified model for various downstream tasks including data generation and imputation. Evaluation on both low-dimensional and high-dimensional heterogeneous datasets for these two tasks shows improvement over state-of-the-art models.

Deep generative models have emerged as a powerful class of priors for signals in various inverse problems such as compressed sensing, phase retrieval and super-resolution. Here, we assume an unknown signal to lie in the range of some pre-trained generative model. A popular approach for signal recovery is via gradient descent in the low-dimensional latent space. While gradient descent has achieved good empirical performance, its theoretical behavior is not well understood. In this paper, we introduce the use of stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) for compressed sensing with a generative prior. Under mild assumptions on the generative model, we prove the convergence of SGLD to the true signal. We also demonstrate competitive empirical performance to standard gradient descent.

Purpose: We propose a general framework for quantifying predictive uncertainties of dose-related quantities and leveraging this information in a dose mimicking problem in the context of automated radiation therapy treatment planning. Methods: A three-step pipeline, comprising feature extraction, dose statistic prediction and dose mimicking, is employed. In particular, the features are produced by a convolutional variational autoencoder and used as inputs in a previously developed nonparametric Bayesian statistical method, estimating the multivariate predictive distribution of a collection of predefined dose statistics. Specially developed objective functions are then used to construct a dose mimicking problem based on the produced distributions, creating deliverable treatment plans. Results: The numerical experiments are performed using a dataset of 94 retrospective treatment plans of prostate cancer patients. We show that the features extracted by the variational autoencoder captures geometric information of substantial relevance to the dose statistic prediction problem, that the estimated predictive distributions are reasonable and outperforms a benchmark method, and that the deliverable plans agree well with their clinical counterparts. Conclusions: We demonstrate that prediction of dose-related quantities may be extended to include uncertainty estimation and that such probabilistic information may be leveraged in a dose mimicking problem. The treatment plans produced by the proposed pipeline resemble their original counterparts well, illustrating the merits of a holistic approach to automated planning based on probabilistic modeling.

It is generally recognized that finite learning rate (LR), in contrast to infinitesimal LR, is important for good generalization in real-life deep nets. Most attempted explanations propose approximating finite-LR SGD with Ito Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs). But formal justification for this approximation (e.g., (Li et al., 2019a)) only applies to SGD with tiny LR. Experimental verification of the approximation appears computationally infeasible. The current paper clarifies the picture with the following contributions: (a) An efficient simulation algorithm SVAG that provably converges to the conventionally used Ito SDE approximation. (b) Experiments using this simulation to demonstrate that the previously proposed SDE approximation can meaningfully capture the training and generalization properties of common deep nets. (c) A provable and empirically testable necessary condition for the SDE approximation to hold and also its most famous implication, the linear scaling rule (Smith et al., 2020; Goyal et al., 2017). The analysis also gives rigorous insight into why the SDE approximation may fail.

Due to spurious correlations, machine learning systems often fail to generalize to environments whose distributions differ from the ones used at training time. Prior work addressing this, either explicitly or implicitly, attempted to find a data representation that has an invariant causal relationship with the target. This is done by leveraging a diverse set of training environments to reduce the effect of spurious features and build an invariant predictor. However, these methods have generalization guarantees only when both data representation and classifiers come from a linear model class. We propose Invariant Causal Representation Learning (ICRL), a learning paradigm that enables out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization in the nonlinear setting (i.e., nonlinear representations and nonlinear classifiers). It builds upon a practical and general assumption: the prior over the data representation factorizes when conditioning on the target and the environment. Based on this, we show identifiability of the data representation up to very simple transformations. We also prove that all direct causes of the target can be fully discovered, which further enables us to obtain generalization guarantees in the nonlinear setting. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that our approach significantly outperforms a variety of baseline methods. Finally, in the concluding discussion, we further explore the aforementioned assumption and propose a general view, called the Agnostic Hypothesis: there exist a set of hidden causal factors affecting both inputs and outcomes. The Agnostic Hypothesis can provide a unifying view of machine learning in terms of representation learning. More importantly, it can inspire a new direction to explore the general theory for identifying hidden causal factors, which is key to enabling the OOD generalization guarantees in machine learning.

The susceptibility of deep neural networks to untrustworthy predictions, including out-of-distribution (OOD) data and adversarial examples, still prevent their widespread use in safety-critical applications. Most existing methods either require a re-training of a given model to achieve robust identification of adversarial attacks or are limited to out-of-distribution sample detection only. In this work, we propose a geometric gradient analysis (GGA) to improve the identification of untrustworthy predictions without retraining of a given model. GGA analyzes the geometry of the loss landscape of neural networks based on the saliency maps of their respective input. To motivate the proposed approach, we provide theoretical connections between gradients' geometrical properties and local minima of the loss function. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms prior approaches in detecting OOD data and adversarial attacks, including state-of-the-art and adaptive attacks.