We've come to expect machines and software to recognize our voices and words, identify faces in photos, and so much more. Despite how remarkable AI appears today and all the ways it'll amends and largely improves our lives, it is still in its relative infancy. However, with the emergence of powerful new capabilities led by breakthroughs in algorithm design, the harvesting of massive data sets, and lightening fast processing, a new generation of AI is emerging. To understand where AI is headed and what it may mean to you, your career, and your organization, you must understand the basics of a new chapter in AI, the arrival of GPT3. GPT3 is AI software that can generate texts of such good quality that it is hard to distinguish from something written by a human.

Although virtual assistants have been around for a while, and most consumers are used to dealing with them, the application is limited and the experience can be poor. However, there is a whole new level of virtual assistance on the way called advanced virtual assistants, which are capable of functioning as virtual billing agents, virtual AI/VR agents or even virtual driver/car agents. The impact will be substantial in industries, organizations and consumer interactions. But advanced virtual assistants are just one of 23 of the most impactful technologies featured on the Gartner Emerging Technologies and Trends Impact Radar for 2021. Let's look at some of the technologies that I find especially interesting. I'll examine a few that are right around the corner (e.g., advanced virtual assistants) and one that is further out (AR cloud).

This paper presents a quick learning mechanism for intelligent fault diagnosis of rotating machines operating under changeable working conditions. Since real case machines in industries run under different operating conditions, the deep learning model trained for a laboratory case machine fails to perform well for the fault diagnosis using recorded data from real case machines. It poses the need of training a new diagnostic model for the fault diagnosis of the real case machine under every new working condition. Therefore, there is a need for a mechanism that can quickly transform the existing diagnostic model for machines operating under different conditions. we propose a quick learning method with Net2Net transformation followed by a fine-tuning method to cancel/minimize the maximum mean discrepancy of the new data to the previous one. This transformation enables us to create a new network with any architecture almost ready to be used for the new dataset. The effectiveness of the proposed fault diagnosis method has been demonstrated on the CWRU dataset, IMS bearing dataset, and Paderborn university dataset. We have shown that the diagnostic model trained for CWRU data at zero load can be used to quickly train another diagnostic model for the CWRU data at different loads and also for the IMS dataset. Using the dataset provided by Paderborn university, it has been validated that the diagnostic model trained on artificially damaged fault dataset can be used for quickly training another model for real damage dataset.

The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.

Multiple lines of evidence suggest that predictive models may benefit from algorithmic triage. Under algorithmic triage, a predictive model does not predict all instances but instead defers some of them to human experts. However, the interplay between the prediction accuracy of the model and the human experts under algorithmic triage is not well understood. In this work, we start by formally characterizing under which circumstances a predictive model may benefit from algorithmic triage. In doing so, we also demonstrate that models trained for full automation may be suboptimal under triage. Then, given any model and desired level of triage, we show that the optimal triage policy is a deterministic threshold rule in which triage decisions are derived deterministically by thresholding the difference between the model and human errors on a per-instance level. Building upon these results, we introduce a practical gradient-based algorithm that is guaranteed to find a sequence of triage policies and predictive models of increasing performance. Experiments on a wide variety of supervised learning tasks using synthetic and real data from two important applications -- content moderation and scientific discovery -- illustrate our theoretical results and show that the models and triage policies provided by our gradient-based algorithm outperform those provided by several competitive baselines.

When manipulating three-dimensional data, it is possible to ensure that rotational and translational symmetries are respected by applying so-called SE(3)-equivariant models. Protein structure prediction is a prominent example of a task which displays these symmetries. Recent work in this area has successfully made use of an SE(3)-equivariant model, applying an iterative SE(3)-equivariant attention mechanism. Motivated by this application, we implement an iterative version of the SE(3)-Transformer, an SE(3)-equivariant attention-based model for graph data. We address the additional complications which arise when applying the SE(3)-Transformer in an iterative fashion, compare the iterative and single-pass versions on a toy problem, and consider why an iterative model may be beneficial in some problem settings. We make the code for our implementation available to the community.

Mobile health (mHealth) apps such as menstrual trackers provide a rich source of self-tracked health observations that can be leveraged for health-relevant research. However, such data streams have questionable reliability since they hinge on user adherence to the app. Therefore, it is crucial for researchers to separate true behavior from self-tracking artifacts. By taking a machine learning approach to modeling self-tracked cycle lengths, we can both make more informed predictions and learn the underlying structure of the observed data. In this work, we propose and evaluate a hierarchical, generative model for predicting next cycle length based on previously-tracked cycle lengths that accounts explicitly for the possibility of users skipping tracking their period. Our model offers several advantages: 1) accounting explicitly for self-tracking artifacts yields better prediction accuracy as likelihood of skipping increases; 2) because it is a generative model, predictions can be updated online as a given cycle evolves, and we can gain interpretable insight into how these predictions change over time; and 3) its hierarchical nature enables modeling of an individual's cycle length history while incorporating population-level information. Our experiments using mHealth cycle length data encompassing over 186,000 menstruators with over 2 million natural menstrual cycles show that our method yields state-of-the-art performance against neural network-based and summary statistic-based baselines, while providing insights on disentangling menstrual patterns from self-tracking artifacts. This work can benefit users, mHealth app developers, and researchers in better understanding cycle patterns and user adherence.

In this study, we report the successful execution of in-air knotting of rope using a dual-arm two-finger robot based on deep learning. Owing to its flexibility, the state of the rope was in constant flux during the operation of the robot. This required the robot control system to dynamically correspond to the state of the object at all times. However, a manual description of appropriate robot motions corresponding to all object states is difficult to be prepared in advance. To resolve this issue, we constructed a model that instructed the robot to perform bowknots and overhand knots based on two deep neural networks trained using the data gathered from its sensorimotor, including visual and proximity sensors. The resultant model was verified to be capable of predicting the appropriate robot motions based on the sensory information available online. In addition, we designed certain task motions based on the Ian knot method using the dual-arm two-fingers robot. The designed knotting motions do not require a dedicated workbench or robot hand, thereby enhancing the versatility of the proposed method. Finally, experiments were performed to estimate the knotting performance of the real robot while executing overhand knots and bowknots on rope and its success rate. The experimental results established the effectiveness and high performance of the proposed method.

This work is an update of a previous paper on the same topic published a few years ago. With the dramatic progress in generative modeling, a suite of new quantitative and qualitative techniques to evaluate models has emerged. Although some measures such as Inception Score, Fr\'echet Inception Distance, Precision-Recall, and Perceptual Path Length are relatively more popular, GAN evaluation is not a settled issue and there is still room for improvement. For example, in addition to quality and diversity of synthesized images, generative models should be evaluated in terms of bias and fairness. I describe new dimensions that are becoming important in assessing models, and discuss the connection between GAN evaluation and deepfakes.

There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), for example using convolutional neural networks such as U-NETs that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose 3 components to integrate with commonly used DDWP models in order to improve their physical consistency and forecast accuracy. These components are 1) a deep spatial transformer added to the latent space of the U-NETs to preserve a property called equivariance, which is related to correctly capturing rotations and scalings of features in spatio-temporal data, 2) a data-assimilation (DA) algorithm to ingest noisy observations and improve the initial conditions for next forecasts, and 3) a multi-time-step algorithm, which combines forecasts from DDWP models with different time steps through DA, improving the accuracy of forecasts at short intervals. To show the benefit/feasibility of each component, we use geopotential height at 500~hPa (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis and examine the short-term forecast accuracy of specific setups of the DDWP framework. Results show that the equivariance-preserving networks (U-STNs) clearly outperform the U-NETs, for example improving the forecast skill by $45\%$. Using a sigma-point ensemble Kalman (SPEnKF) algorithm for DA and U-STN as the forward model, we show that stable, accurate DA cycles are achieved even with high observation noise. The DDWP+DA framework substantially benefits from large ($O(1000)$) ensembles that are inexpensively generated with the data-driven forward model in each DA cycle. The multi-time-step DDWP+DA framework also shows promises, e.g., it reduces the average error by factors of 2-3.