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FSL-BDP: Federated Survival Learning with Bayesian Differential Privacy for Credit Risk Modeling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Credit risk models are a critical decision-support tool for financial institutions, yet tightening data-protection rules (e.g., GDPR, CCPA) increasingly prohibit cross-border sharing of borrower data, even as these models benefit from cross-institution learning. Traditional default prediction suffers from two limitations: binary classification ignores default timing, treating early defaulters (high loss) equivalently to late defaulters (low loss), and centralized training violates emerging regulatory constraints. We propose a Federated Survival Learning framework with Bayesian Differential Privacy (FSL-BDP) that models time-to-default trajectories without centralizing sensitive data. The framework provides Bayesian (data-dependent) differential privacy (DP) guarantees while enabling institutions to jointly learn risk dynamics. Experiments on three real-world credit datasets (LendingClub, SBA, Bondora) show that federation fundamentally alters the relative effectiveness of privacy mechanisms. While classical DP performs better than Bayesian DP in centralized settings, the latter benefits substantially more from federation (+7.0\% vs +1.4\%), achieving near parity of non-private performance and outperforming classical DP in the majority of participating clients. This ranking reversal yields a key decision-support insight: privacy mechanism selection should be evaluated in the target deployment architecture, rather than centralized benchmarks. These findings provide actionable guidance for practitioners designing privacy-preserving decision support systems in regulated, multi-institutional environments.


Musk seeks up to 134 billion damages from OpenAI, Microsoft

The Japan Times

Elon Musk is seeking between $79 billion and $134 billion in damages over his claims that OpenAI defrauded him by abandoning its nonprofit roots and partnering with Microsoft. Elon Musk wants OpenAI and Microsoft to pay him damages in the range of $79 billion to $134 billion over his claims that the generative AI company defrauded him by abandoning its nonprofit roots and partnering with the software giant. Musk's lawyer detailed the damages request in a court filing Friday, a day after a federal judge rejected a final bid by OpenAI and Microsoft to avoid a jury trial set for late April in Oakland, California. Citing calculations by a financial economist expert witness, C. Paul Wazzan, the filing says Musk is entitled to a chunk of OpenAI's current $500 billion valuation after he was defrauded of the $38 million in seed money he donated to OpenAI when he helped found the startup in 2015. OpenAI and Microsoft later disputed the calculations.


Elon Musk is looking for a 134 billion payout from OpenAI and Microsoft

Engadget

How to claim Verizon's $20 outage credit The latest filing in the lawsuit claims that Musk deserves anywhere from $79 billion to $134 billion from wrongful gains. We now have some idea of what's at stake in the longstanding feud between Elon Musk and OpenAI. As first reported by, the latest filing, as part of a lawsuit that accuses the AI giant of abandoning its non-profit status, claims that Musk is owed anywhere between $79 billion and $134 billion in damages from the wrongful gains of OpenAI and Microsoft. Musk claimed in the filing that he's entitled to a portion of OpenAI's recent valuation at $500 billion, after contributing $38 million in seed funding during the AI company's startup years. Along with providing roughly 60 percent of the nonprofit's seed funding, Musk offered recruiting of key employees, introductions with business contacts and startup advice, according to the filing.


'We could hit a wall': why trillions of dollars of risk is no guarantee of AI reward

The Guardian

Datacentres and industrial complexes used by Google, Microsoft and Amazon in Medemblik, the Netherlands. Datacentres and industrial complexes used by Google, Microsoft and Amazon in Medemblik, the Netherlands. 'We could hit a wall': why trillions of dollars of risk is no guarantee of AI reward Progress of artificial general intelligence could stall, which may lead to a financial crash, says Yoshua Bengio, one of the'godfathers' of modern AI Will the race to artificial general intelligence (AGI) lead us to a land of financial plenty - or will it end in a 2008-style bust? Trillions of dollars rest on the answer. The figures are staggering: an estimated $2.9tn (£2.2tn) being spent on datacentres, the central nervous systems of AI tools; the more than $4tn stock market capitalisation of Nvidia, the company that makes the chips powering cutting-edge AI systems; and the $100m signing-on bonuses offered by Mark Zuckerberg's Meta to top engineers at OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. These sky-high numbers are all propped up by investors who expect a return on their trillions.


Thinking Machines Cofounder's Office Relationship Preceded His Termination

WIRED

Leaders at Mira Murati's startup believe Barret Zoph engaged in an incident of "serious misconduct." The details are now coming to light. Leaders at Mira Murati's Thinking Machines Lab confronted the startup's cofounder and former CTO, Barret Zoph, over an alleged relationship with another employee last summer, WIRED has learned. That relationship was likely the alleged "misconduct" that has been mentioned in prior reporting, including by WIRED . To protect the privacy of the individuals involved, WIRED is not naming the employee in question.


OpenAI is bringing ads to ChatGPT

Engadget

How to claim Verizon's $20 outage credit Free and Go tier users in the US will start seeing sponsored content soon. A screenshot illustrating what ads will look like in ChatGPT. OpenAI plans to start testing ads inside of ChatGPT in the coming weeks. In a blog post published Friday, the company said adult users in the US of its free and Go tiers (more on the latter in a moment) would start seeing sponsored products and services appear below their conversations with its chatbot. Ads will be clearly labeled and separated from the organic answer, OpenAI said, adding any sponsored spots would not influence the answers ChatGPT generates.


ChatGPT to carry adverts for some users

BBC News

Adverts will soon appear at the top of the AI tool ChatGPT for some users, the company OpenAI has announced. The trial will initially take place in the US, and will affect some ChatGPT users on the free service and a new subscription tier, called ChatGPT Go. This cheaper option will be available for all users worldwide, and will cost $8 a month, or the equivalent pricing in other currencies. OpenAI says during the trial, relevant ads will appear after a prompt - for example, asking ChatGPT for places to visit in Mexico could result in holiday ads appearing. In example screenshots shared by the firm, the ads look like banners.


Ads Are Coming to ChatGPT. Here's How They'll Work

WIRED

Ads Are Coming to ChatGPT. OpenAI says ads will not influence ChatGPT's responses, and that it won't sell user data to advertisers. OpenAI plans to start testing ads inside ChatGPT in the coming weeks, marking a significant shift for one of the world's most widely used AI products. The company announced Friday that initial ad tests will roll out in the United States before expanding globally. OpenAI says ads will not influence ChatGPT's responses, and that all ads will appear in separate, clearly labeled boxes directly below the chatbot's answer.


Amateur mathematicians solve long-standing maths problems with AI

New Scientist

Amateur mathematicians are using artificial intelligence chatbots to solve long-standing problems, in a move that has taken professionals by surprise. While the problems in question aren't the most advanced in the mathematical canon, the success of AI models in tackling them shows that their mathematical performance has passed a significant threshold, say researchers, and could fundamentally change the way we do mathematics. The questions being solved by AI originate from Hungarian mathematician Paul Erdős, who was famous for his ability to pose useful but difficult questions during a career that spanned over six decades. "The questions tended to be very simple, but very hard," says Thomas Bloom at the University of Manchester, UK. By his death in 1996, there were more than 1000 of these unsolved Erdős problems, spanning a wide range of mathematical disciplines, from combinatorics (the study of combinations) to number theory.


Engadget Podcast: Why did Apple choose Gemini for next-gen Siri?

Engadget

How to claim Verizon's $20 outage credit Engadget Podcast: Why did Apple choose Gemini for next-gen Siri? Apple's next-gen Siri is still far off, but this week the company announced that it'll be using Google's Gemini AI for its new foundation models. In this episode, Devindra and Engadget's Igor Bonifacic discuss why Apple teamed up with Google again, instead of OpenAI or Anthropic. Also, they chat about Meta's Reality Lab layoffs, which is refocusing the company on AI hardware like its smart glasses. Tesla's Full Self Driving is also going subscription only, a year costs $999 - 29:15 Apple announces that its long delayed'smarter Siri' will be powered by Google Gemini - 35:15 X finally responds to Grok's CSAM and nudity generation with limits - 51:46 Cursor claims their AI agents wrote 1M+ lines of code to make a web browser from scratch, are developers cooked?