Density deconvolution addresses the estimation of the unknown (probability) density function $f$ of a random signal from data that are observed with an independent additive random noise. This is a classical problem in statistics, for which frequentist and Bayesian nonparametric approaches are available to deal with static or batch data. In this paper, we consider the problem of density deconvolution in a streaming or online setting where noisy data arrive progressively, with no predetermined sample size, and we develop a sequential nonparametric approach to estimate $f$. By relying on a quasi-Bayesian sequential approach, often referred to as Newton's algorithm, we obtain estimates of $f$ that are of easy evaluation, computationally efficient, and with a computational cost that remains constant as the amount of data increases, which is critical in the streaming setting. Large sample asymptotic properties of the proposed estimates are studied, yielding provable guarantees with respect to the estimation of $f$ at a point (local) and on an interval (uniform). In particular, we establish local and uniform central limit theorems, providing corresponding asymptotic credible intervals and bands. We validate empirically our methods on synthetic and real data, by considering the common setting of Laplace and Gaussian noise distributions, and make a comparison with respect to the kernel-based approach and a Bayesian nonparametric approach with a Dirichlet process mixture prior.

Decentralized stochastic control problems are intrinsically difficult to study because of the inapplicability of standard tools from centralized control such as dynamic programming and the resulting computational complexity. In this paper, we address some of these challenges for decentralized stochastic control with Borel spaces under three different but tightly related information structures under a unified theme: the one-step delayed information sharing pattern, the K-step periodic information sharing pattern, and the completely decentralized information structure where no sharing of information occurs. We will show that the one-step delayed and K-step periodic problems can be reduced to a centralized MDP, generalizing prior results which considered finite, linear, or static models, by addressing several measurability questions. The separated nature of policies under both information structures is then established. We then provide sufficient conditions for the transition kernels of both centralized reductions to be weak-Feller, which facilitates rigorous approximation and learning theoretic results. We will then show that for the completely decentralized control problem finite memory local policies are near optimal under a joint conditional mixing condition. This is achieved by obtaining a bound for finite memory policies which goes to zero as memory size increases. We will also provide a performance bound for the K-periodic problem, which results from replacing the full common information by a finite sliding window of information. The latter will depend on the condition of predictor stability in expected total variation, which we will establish. We finally show that under the periodic information sharing pattern, a quantized Q-learning algorithm converges asymptotically towards a near optimal solution. Each of the above, to our knowledge, is a new contribution to the literature.

In quantitative finance, machine learning methods are essential for alpha generation. This study introduces a new approach that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization. During the COVID period (2019-2022), this dual-model approach achieved a 83% return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77. It incorporates two risk models to enhance risk management, showing efficiency during volatile periods. The methodology was implemented on the QuantConnect platform, which was chosen for its robust framework and experimental reproducibility. The system, which predicts future price movements, includes a three-year warm-up to ensure proper algorithm function. It targets highly liquid, large-cap energy stocks to ensure stable and predictable performance while also considering broker payments. The dual-model alpha system utilizes log returns to select the optimal state based on the historical performance. It combines state predictions with neural network outputs, which are based on historical data, to generate trading signals. This study examined the architecture of the trading system, data pre-processing, training, and performance. The full code and backtesting data are available under the QuantConnect terms.

Interpretability research aims to provide a human-understandable explanation for model outputs and behaviors based on the input and model's internal structure [Doshi-Velez and Kim, 2017]. The field's goal is to generate mechanistic explanations of how neural networks perform computations and produce behaviors [Nanda et al., 2023, Olsson et al., 2022], which could help predict the behavior of such networks across a wide range of scenarios and possibly solve notable problems of AI systems, such as hallucination and toxic output [Ji et al., 2023]. Being able to interpret AI systems is therefore a key capability to be able to understand whether models are appropriately fair, reliable, robust, and worthy of user trust [Doshi-Velez and Kim, 2017]. However, understanding the computations of frontier AI systems with hundreds of billions of parameters presents many technical challenges, from the curse of dimensionality [Zhao et al., 2024, Altman and Krzywinski, 2018] to finding a suitable unit of analysis [Olah et al., 2020, Zou et al., 2023]. These challenges are par for the course when studying complex systems. In particular, many challenges around artificial neural networks (ANN) interpretability are intimately familiar to another group of researchers: neuroscientists. Neuroscience (often in partnership with cognitive science and psychology) investigates how neurons, their connections, and their activity patterns give rise to cognition and behavior. Similar to how deep learning researchers have recognized, neuroscientists have realized that simply examining activity profiles of individual neurons in response to a particular input is often insufficient for understanding how the system performs computation. Instead, complex neural systems are best understood across multiple levels of analysis - considering behavior alongside the brain's connectome, population codes, and codes of single neurons to gain a holistic understanding of the inner workings of the brain

Understanding people's social interactions in complex real-world scenarios often relies on intricate mental reasoning. To truly understand how and why people interact with one another, we must infer the underlying mental states that give rise to the social interactions, i.e., Theory of Mind reasoning in multi-agent interactions. Additionally, social interactions are often multi-modal -- we can watch people's actions, hear their conversations, and/or read about their past behaviors. For AI systems to successfully and safely interact with people in real-world environments, they also need to understand people's mental states as well as their inferences about each other's mental states based on multi-modal information about their interactions. For this, we introduce MuMA-ToM, a Multi-modal Multi-Agent Theory of Mind benchmark. MuMA-ToM is the first multi-modal Theory of Mind benchmark that evaluates mental reasoning in embodied multi-agent interactions. In MuMA-ToM, we provide video and text descriptions of people's multi-modal behavior in realistic household environments. Based on the context, we then ask questions about people's goals, beliefs, and beliefs about others' goals. We validated MuMA-ToM in a human experiment and provided a human baseline. We also proposed a novel multi-modal, multi-agent ToM model, LIMP (Language model-based Inverse Multi-agent Planning). Our experimental results show that LIMP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, including large multi-modal models (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini-1.5 Pro) and a recent multi-modal ToM model, BIP-ALM.

Computational complexity of Bayesian learning is impeding its adoption in practical, large-scale tasks. Despite demonstrations of significant merits such as improved robustness and resilience to unseen or out-of-distribution inputs over their non- Bayesian counterparts, their practical use has faded to near insignificance. In this study, we introduce an innovative framework to mitigate the computational burden of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). Our approach follows the principle of Bayesian techniques based on deep ensembles, but significantly reduces their cost via multiple low-rank perturbations of parameters arising from a pre-trained neural network. Both vanilla version of ensembles as well as more sophisticated schemes such as Bayesian learning with Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD), previously deemed impractical for large models, can be seamlessly implemented within the proposed framework, called Bayesian Low-Rank LeArning (Bella). In a nutshell, i) Bella achieves a dramatic reduction in the number of trainable parameters required to approximate a Bayesian posterior; and ii) it not only maintains, but in some instances, surpasses the performance of conventional Bayesian learning methods and non-Bayesian baselines. Our results with large-scale tasks such as ImageNet, CAMELYON17, DomainNet, VQA with CLIP, LLaVA demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of Bella in building highly scalable and practical Bayesian deep models for real-world applications.

Designing synthetically accessible molecules and recommending analogs to unsynthesizable molecules are important problems for accelerating molecular discovery. We reconceptualize both problems using ideas from program synthesis. Drawing inspiration from syntax-guided synthesis approaches, we decouple the syntactic skeleton from the semantics of a synthetic tree to create a bilevel framework for reasoning about the combinatorial space of synthesis pathways. Given a molecule we aim to generate analogs for, we iteratively refine its skeletal characteristics via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations over the space of syntactic skeletons. Given a black-box oracle to optimize, we formulate a joint design space over syntactic templates and molecular descriptors and introduce evolutionary algorithms that optimize both syntactic and semantic dimensions synergistically. Our key insight is that once the syntactic skeleton is set, we can amortize over the search complexity of deriving the program's semantics by training policies to fully utilize the fixed horizon Markov Decision Process imposed by the syntactic template. We demonstrate performance advantages of our bilevel framework for synthesizable analog generation and synthesizable molecule design. Notably, our approach offers the user explicit control over the resources required to perform synthesis and biases the design space towards simpler solutions, making it particularly promising for autonomous synthesis platforms.

Instead of randomly acquiring training data points, Uncertainty-based Active Learning (UAL) operates by querying the label(s) of pivotal samples from an unlabeled pool selected based on the prediction uncertainty, thereby aiming at minimizing the labeling cost for model training. The efficacy of UAL critically depends on the model capacity as well as the adopted uncertainty-based acquisition function. Within the context of this study, our analytical focus is directed toward comprehending how the capacity of the machine learning model may affect UAL efficacy. Through theoretical analysis, comprehensive simulations, and empirical studies, we conclusively demonstrate that UAL can lead to worse performance in comparison with random sampling when the machine learning model class has low capacity and is unable to cover the underlying ground truth. In such situations, adopting acquisition functions that directly target estimating the prediction performance may be beneficial for improving the performance of UAL.

Having graphs underlie multivariate distributions performs a translation of their vast range of topologies to a rich variety of dependence schemes; this is the premise of probabilistic graphical models. The graph, through its edges and its vertices, serves as a representation of the dependence relations knitting the random variables to one another. Among others, [Koller and Friedman, 2009] and [Maathuis et al., 2018] dive deeply into probabilistic graphical models, with much emphasis on Bayesian networks and Markov random fields (MRFs), also called Markov networks or undirected graphical models. In [Besag, 1974], a seminal paper on MRFs, the author defines various families through their conditional distributions: the distribution of a random variable is specified given the value taken by its neighbours according to the underlying graph. A family that has drawn particular attention to represent a vector of count random variables is Besag's auto-Poisson MRFs, also called Poisson graphical models, where each vertex's conditional distribution is Poisson, the values taken by the neighbouring vertices' random variables influencing its mean parameter.

Evaluating different training interventions to determine which produce the best learning outcomes is one of the main challenges faced by instructional designers. Typically, these designers use A/B experiments to evaluate each intervention; however, it is costly and time consuming to run such studies. To address this issue, we explore how computational models of learning might support designers in reasoning causally about alternative interventions within a fractions tutor. We present an approach for automatically tuning models to specific individuals and show that personalized models make better predictions of students' behavior than generic ones. Next, we conduct simulations to generate counterfactual predictions of performance and learning for two students (high and low performing) in different versions of the fractions tutor. Our approach makes predictions that align with previous human findings, as well as testable predictions that might be evaluated with future human experiments.