We study the Whittle index learning algorithm for restless multi-armed bandits. We consider index learning algorithm with Q-learning. We first present Q-learning algorithm with exploration policies -- epsilon-greedy, softmax, epsilon-softmax with constant stepsizes. We extend the study of Q-learning to index learning for single-armed restless bandit. The algorithm of index learning is two-timescale variant of stochastic approximation, on slower timescale we update index learning scheme and on faster timescale we update Q-learning assuming fixed index value. In Q-learning updates are in asynchronous manner. We study constant stepsizes two timescale stochastic approximation algorithm. We provide analysis of two-timescale stochastic approximation for index learning with constant stepsizes. Further, we present study on index learning with deep Q-network (DQN) learning and linear function approximation with state-aggregation method. We describe the performance of our algorithms using numerical examples. We have shown that index learning with Q learning, DQN and function approximations learns the Whittle index.

Non-recurrent conditions caused by incidents are different from recurrent conditions that follow periodic patterns. Existing traffic speed prediction studies are incident-agnostic and use one single model to learn all possible patterns from these drastically diverse conditions. This study proposes a novel Mixture of Experts (MoE) model to improve traffic speed prediction under two separate conditions, recurrent and non-recurrent (i.e., with and without incidents). The MoE leverages separate recurrent and non-recurrent expert models (Temporal Fusion Transformers) to capture the distinct patterns of each traffic condition. Additionally, we propose a training pipeline for non-recurrent models to remedy the limited data issues. To train our model, multi-source datasets, including traffic speed, incident reports, and weather data, are integrated and processed to be informative features. Evaluations on a real road network demonstrate that the MoE achieves lower errors compared to other benchmark algorithms. The model predictions are interpreted in terms of temporal dependencies and variable importance in each condition separately to shed light on the differences between recurrent and non-recurrent conditions.

Heart disease is a serious worldwide health issue because it claims the lives of many people who might have been treated if the disease had been identified earlier. The leading cause of death in the world is cardiovascular disease, usually referred to as heart disease. Creating reliable, effective, and precise predictions for these diseases is one of the biggest issues facing the medical world today. Although there are tools for predicting heart diseases, they are either expensive or challenging to apply for determining a patient's risk. The best classifier for foretelling and spotting heart disease was the aim of this research. This experiment examined a range of machine learning approaches, including Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Networks, to determine which machine learning algorithm was most effective at predicting heart diseases. One of the most often utilized data sets for this purpose, the UCI heart disease repository provided the data set for this study. The K-Nearest Neighbor technique was shown to be the most effective machine learning algorithm for determining whether a patient has heart disease. It will be beneficial to conduct further studies on the application of additional machine learning algorithms for heart disease prediction.

We introduce a general iterative procedure called risk-based calibration (RC) designed to minimize the empirical risk under the 0-1 loss (empirical error) for probabilistic classifiers. These classifiers are based on modeling probability distributions, including those constructed from the joint distribution (generative) and those based on the class conditional distribution (conditional). RC can be particularized to any probabilistic classifier provided a specific learning algorithm that computes the classifier's parameters in closed form using data statistics. RC reinforces the statistics aligned with the true class while penalizing those associated with other classes, guided by the 0-1 loss. The proposed method has been empirically tested on 30 datasets using na\"ive Bayes, quadratic discriminant analysis, and logistic regression classifiers. RC improves the empirical error of the original closed-form learning algorithms and, more notably, consistently outperforms the gradient descent approach with the three classifiers.

This paper introduces a novel family of deep dynamical models designed to represent continuous-time sequence data. This family of models generates each data point in the time series by a neural emission model, which is a non-linear transformation of a latent state vector. The trajectory of the latent states is implicitly described by a neural ordinary differential equation (ODE), with the initial state following an informative prior distribution parameterized by an energy-based model. Furthermore, we can extend this model to disentangle dynamic states from underlying static factors of variation, represented as time-invariant variables in the latent space. We train the model using maximum likelihood estimation with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in an end-to-end manner, without requiring additional assisting components such as an inference network. Our experiments on oscillating systems, videos and real-world state sequences (MuJoCo) illustrate that ODEs with the learnable energy-based prior outperform existing counterparts, and can generalize to new dynamic parameterization, enabling long-horizon predictions.

This book uses the modern theory of artificial intelligence (AI) to understand human suffering or mental pain. Both humans and sophisticated AI agents process information about the world in order to achieve goals and obtain rewards, which is why AI can be used as a model of the human brain and mind. This book intends to make the theory accessible to a relatively general audience, requiring only some relevant scientific background. The book starts with the assumption that suffering is mainly caused by frustration. Frustration means the failure of an agent (whether AI or human) to achieve a goal or a reward it wanted or expected. Frustration is inevitable because of the overwhelming complexity of the world, limited computational resources, and scarcity of good data. In particular, such limitations imply that an agent acting in the real world must cope with uncontrollability, unpredictability, and uncertainty, which all lead to frustration. Fundamental in such modelling is the idea of learning, or adaptation to the environment. While AI uses machine learning, humans and animals adapt by a combination of evolutionary mechanisms and ordinary learning. Even frustration is fundamentally an error signal that the system uses for learning. This book explores various aspects and limitations of learning algorithms and their implications regarding suffering. At the end of the book, the computational theory is used to derive various interventions or training methods that will reduce suffering in humans. The amount of frustration is expressed by a simple equation which indicates how it can be reduced. The ensuing interventions are very similar to those proposed by Buddhist and Stoic philosophy, and include mindfulness meditation. Therefore, this book can be interpreted as an exposition of a computational theory justifying why such philosophies and meditation reduce human suffering.

The identification theory for causal effects in directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) with hidden variables is well-developed, but methods for estimating and inferring functionals beyond the g-formula remain limited. Previous studies have proposed semiparametric estimators for identifiable functionals in a broad class of DAGs with hidden variables. While demonstrating double robustness in some models, existing estimators face challenges, particularly with density estimation and numerical integration for continuous variables, and their estimates may fall outside the parameter space of the target estimand. Their asymptotic properties are also underexplored, especially when using flexible statistical and machine learning models for nuisance estimation. This study addresses these challenges by introducing novel one-step corrected plug-in and targeted minimum loss-based estimators of causal effects for a class of DAGs that extend classical back-door and front-door criteria (known as the treatment primal fixability criterion in prior literature). These estimators leverage machine learning to minimize modeling assumptions while ensuring key statistical properties such as asymptotic linearity, double robustness, efficiency, and staying within the bounds of the target parameter space. We establish conditions for nuisance functional estimates in terms of L2(P)-norms to achieve root-n consistent causal effect estimates. To facilitate practical application, we have developed the flexCausal package in R.

Language models are exhibiting increasing capability in knowledge utilization and reasoning. However, when applied as agents in embodied environments, they often suffer from misalignment between their intrinsic knowledge and environmental knowledge, leading to infeasible actions. Traditional environment alignment methods, such as supervised learning on expert trajectories and reinforcement learning, face limitations in covering environmental knowledge and achieving efficient convergence, respectively. Inspired by human learning, we propose Exploration-based Error Correction Learning (E2CL), a novel framework that leverages exploration-induced errors and environmental feedback to enhance environment alignment for LM-based agents. E2CL incorporates teacher-guided and teacher-free exploration to gather environmental feedback and correct erroneous actions. The agent learns to provide feedback and self-correct, thereby enhancing its adaptability to target environments. Evaluations in the Virtualhome environment demonstrate that E2CL-trained agents outperform those trained by baseline methods and exhibit superior self-correction capabilities.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of continuous variable models can be very challenging in high dimensions, due to potentially complex probability distributions. The existence of multiple interdependencies among variables can make it very difficult to establish convergence guarantees. This leads to a wide use of brute-force methods, such as grid searching and Monte-Carlo sampling and, when applicable, complex and problem-specific algorithms. In this paper, we consider inference problems where the variables are related by multiaffine expressions. We propose a novel Alternating and Iteratively-Reweighted Least Squares (AIRLS) algorithm, and prove its convergence for problems with Generalized Normal Distributions. We also provide an efficient method to compute the variance of the estimates obtained using AIRLS. Finally, we show how the method can be applied to graphical statistical models. We perform numerical experiments on several inference problems, showing significantly better performance than state-of-the-art approaches in terms of scalability, robustness to noise, and convergence speed due to an empirically observed super-linear convergence rate.

The premise of semi-supervised learning (SSL) is that combining labeled and unlabeled data yields significantly more accurate models. Despite empirical successes, the theoretical understanding of SSL is still far from complete. In this work, we study SSL for high dimensional sparse Gaussian classification. To construct an accurate classifier a key task is feature selection, detecting the few variables that separate the two classes. % For this SSL setting, we analyze information theoretic lower bounds for accurate feature selection as well as computational lower bounds, assuming the low-degree likelihood hardness conjecture. % Our key contribution is the identification of a regime in the problem parameters (dimension, sparsity, number of labeled and unlabeled samples) where SSL is guaranteed to be advantageous for classification. Specifically, there is a regime where it is possible to construct in polynomial time an accurate SSL classifier. However, % any computationally efficient supervised or unsupervised learning schemes, that separately use only the labeled or unlabeled data would fail. Our work highlights the provable benefits of combining labeled and unlabeled data for {classification and} feature selection in high dimensions. We present simulations that complement our theoretical analysis.