In this paper, we propose a Q-learning based decision-making framework to improve the safety and efficiency of Autonomous Vehicles when they encounter other maliciously behaving vehicles while passing through unsignalized intersections. In Autonomous Vehicles, conventional reward signals are set as regular rewards regarding feedback factors such as safety and efficiency. In this paper, safety gains are modulated by variable weighting parameters to ensure that safety can be emphasized more in emergency situations. The framework proposed in this paper introduces first-order theory of mind inferences on top of conventional rewards, using first-order beliefs as additional reward signals. The decision framework enables Autonomous Vehicles to make informed decisions when encountering vehicles with potentially malicious behaviors at unsignalized intersections, thereby improving the overall safety and efficiency of Autonomous Vehicle transportation systems. In order to verify the performance of the decision framework, this paper uses Prescan/Simulink co-simulations for simulation, and the results show that the performance of the decision framework can meet the set requirements.

Wind power is one of the fastest-growing renewable energy sectors and a key pillar for the transition to a carbon-free economy. In 2023, energy from wind accounted for 10.2% of all U.S. utility-scale electricity generation [54]. Being intrinsically weather-driven, wind power injects uncertainty into the balancing of power demand and generation. On the daily operational time scale, quantifying the asset-specific and area-wide uncertainty of renewable generation for the next day is an essential ingredient of grid management. Specifically, grid operators need probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting of wind power in order to appropriately set grid reserves, ensure grid stability, and optimize dispatch of grid resources. Our goal is to develop a statistical framework for short-term wind power generation simulations across space and time. This project is motivated by working with a large dataset of wind generation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region and is geared to the concrete practical concerns faced by electricity grid operators. We refer to our team's related publications [8, 7, 52, 38] that employ similar simulations for various downstream risk management tasks; other use cases are discussed, among others, in [27, 33, 35, 58].

To assess memorization and information leakage in models, Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) aim to determine if a data point was part of a model's training set [1]. However, MIAs designed for pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) have been largely ineffective [2, 3]. This is primarily because these MIAs, originally developed for classification models, fail to account for the sequential nature of LLMs. Unlike classification models, which produce a single prediction, LLMs generate text token-by-token, adjusting each prediction based on the context of preceding tokens (i.e., prefix). Prior MIAs overlook token-level loss dynamics and the influence of prefixes on next-token predictability, which contributes to memorization.

We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design the first recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$ computation at each step, does not require storing any historical samples or any prior knowledge of run-length, and has optimal $O(\frac{1}{n})$ rate of convergence for the mean-squared error (MSE) with provable finite sample guarantees. Here, $n$ refers to the total number of samples generated. The previously best-known rate of convergence in MSE was $O(\frac{\log n}{n})$, achieved by jackknifed estimators, which also do not enjoy these other desirable properties. Our estimator is based on linear stochastic approximation of an equivalent formulation of the asymptotic variance in terms of the solution of the Poisson equation. We generalize our estimator in several directions, including estimating the covariance matrix for vector-valued functions, estimating the stationary variance of a Markov chain, and approximately estimating the asymptotic variance in settings where the state space of the underlying Markov chain is large. We also show applications of our estimator in average reward reinforcement learning (RL), where we work with asymptotic variance as a risk measure to model safety-critical applications. We design a temporal-difference type algorithm tailored for policy evaluation in this context. We consider both the tabular and linear function approximation settings. Our work paves the way for developing actor-critic style algorithms for variance-constrained RL.

In this study, we leveraged Channel State Information (CSI), commonly utilized in WLAN communication, as training data to develop and evaluate five distinct machine learning models for recognizing human postures: standing, sitting, and lying down. The models we employed were: (i) Linear Discriminant Analysis, (ii) Naive Bayes-Support Vector Machine, (iii) Kernel-Support Vector Machine, (iv) Random Forest, and (v) Deep Learning. We systematically analyzed how the accuracy of these models varied with different amounts of training data. Additionally, to assess their spatial generalization capabilities, we evaluated the models' performance in a setting distinct from the one used for data collection. The experimental findings indicated that while two models -- (ii) Naive Bayes-Support Vector Machine and (v) Deep Learning -- achieved 85% or more accuracy in the original setting, their accuracy dropped to approximately 30% when applied in a different environment. These results underscore that although CSI-based machine learning models can attain high accuracy within a consistent spatial structure, their performance diminishes considerably with changes in spatial conditions, highlighting a significant challenge in their generalization capabilities.

For electric vehicles, the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) is designed to assist braking based on driving conditions, road inclines, predefined deceleration strengths, and user braking patterns. However, the driving data collected during the development of ADAS are generally limited and lack diversity. This deficiency leads to late or aggressive braking for different users. Crucially, it is necessary to effectively identify anomalies, such as unexpected or inconsistent braking patterns in ADAS, especially given the challenge of working with unlabelled, limited, and noisy datasets from real-world electric vehicles. In order to tackle the aforementioned challenges in ADAS, we propose Graph Neural Controlled Differential Equation Normalizing Flow (GDFlow), a model that leverages Normalizing Flow (NF) with Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDE) to learn the distribution of normal driving patterns continuously. Compared to the traditional clustering or anomaly detection algorithms, our approach effectively captures the spatio-temporal information from different sensor data and more accurately models continuous changes in driving patterns. Additionally, we introduce a quantile-based maximum likelihood objective to improve the likelihood estimate of the normal data near the boundary of the distribution, enhancing the model's ability to distinguish between normal and anomalous patterns. We validate GDFlow using real-world electric vehicle driving data that we collected from Hyundai IONIQ5 and GV80EV, achieving state-of-the-art performance compared to six baselines across four dataset configurations of different vehicle types and drivers. Furthermore, our model outperforms the latest anomaly detection methods across four time series benchmark datasets. Our approach demonstrates superior efficiency in inference time compared to existing methods.

The Orienteering Problem (OP) is a well-studied routing problem that has been extended to incorporate uncertainties, reflecting stochastic or dynamic travel costs, prize-collection costs, and prizes. Existing approaches may, however, be inefficient in real-world applications due to insufficient modeling knowledge and initially unknowable parameters in online scenarios. Thus, we propose the Uncertain and Dynamic Orienteering Problem (UDOP), modeling travel costs as distributions with unknown and time-variant parameters. UDOP also associates uncertain travel costs with dynamic prizes and prize-collection costs for its objective and budget constraints. To address UDOP, we develop an ADaptive Approach for Probabilistic paThs - ADAPT, that iteratively performs 'execution' and 'online planning' based on an initial 'offline' solution. The execution phase updates system status and records online cost observations. The online planner employs a Bayesian approach to adaptively estimate power consumption and optimize path sequence based on safety beliefs. We evaluate ADAPT in a practical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) charging scheduling problem for Wireless Rechargeable Sensor Networks. The UAV must optimize its path to recharge sensor nodes efficiently while managing its energy under uncertain conditions. ADAPT maintains comparable solution quality and computation time while offering superior robustness. Extensive simulations show that ADAPT achieves a 100% Mission Success Rate (MSR) across all tested scenarios, outperforming comparable heuristic-based and frequentist approaches that fail up to 70% (under challenging conditions) and averaging 67% MSR, respectively. This work advances the field of OP with uncertainties, offering a reliable and efficient approach for real-world applications in uncertain and dynamic environments.

Value factorization is a popular paradigm for designing scalable multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms. However, current factorization methods make choices without full justification that may limit their performance. For example, the theory in prior work uses stateless (i.e., history) functions, while the practical implementations use state information -- making the motivating theory a mismatch for the implementation. Also, methods have built off of previous approaches, inheriting their architectures without exploring other, potentially better ones. To address these concerns, we formally analyze the theory of using the state instead of the history in current methods -- reconnecting theory and practice. We then introduce DuelMIX, a factorization algorithm that learns distinct per-agent utility estimators to improve performance and achieve full expressiveness. Experiments on StarCraft II micromanagement and Box Pushing tasks demonstrate the benefits of our intuitions.

We propose a data-driven approach using a Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) to solve the Schr\"odinger equation in configuration space. Traditional Configuration Interaction (CI) methods, while powerful, are computationally expensive due to the large number of determinants required. Our approach leverages RBMs to efficiently identify and sample the most significant determinants, accelerating convergence and reducing computational cost. This method achieves up to 99.99\% of the correlation energy even by four orders of magnitude less determinants compared to full CI calculations and up to two orders of magnitude less than previous state of the art works. Additionally, our study demonstrate that the RBM can learn the underlying quantum properties, providing more detail insights than other methods . This innovative data-driven approach offers a promising tool for quantum chemistry, enhancing both efficiency and understanding of complex systems.

This research aims to propose and evaluate a novel model named K-Fold Causal Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (K-Fold Causal BART) for improved estimation of Average Treatment Effects (ATE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE). The study employs synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets, including the widely recognized Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) benchmark dataset, to validate the model's performance. Despite promising results in synthetic scenarios, the IHDP dataset reveals that the proposed model is not state-of-the-art for ATE and CATE estimation. Nonetheless, the research provides several novel insights: 1. The ps-BART model is likely the preferred choice for CATE and ATE estimation due to better generalization compared to the other benchmark models - including the Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) model, which is considered by many the current best model for CATE estimation, 2. The BCF model's performance deteriorates significantly with increasing treatment effect heterogeneity, while the ps-BART model remains robust, 3. Models tend to be overconfident in CATE uncertainty quantification when treatment effect heterogeneity is low, 4. A second K-Fold method is unnecessary for avoiding overfitting in CATE estimation, as it adds computational costs without improving performance, 5. Detailed analysis reveals the importance of understanding dataset characteristics and using nuanced evaluation methods, 6. The conclusion of Curth et al. (2021) that indirect strategies for CATE estimation are superior for the IHDP dataset is contradicted by the results of this research. These findings challenge existing assumptions and suggest directions for future research to enhance causal inference methodologies.