Learning Graphical Models
An Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Traffic Accident Fatality Prediction
Rifat, Md. Asif Khan, Kabir, Ahmedul, Huq, Armana Sabiha
Road traffic accidents (RTA) pose a significant public health threat worldwide, leading to considerable loss of life and economic burdens. This is particularly acute in developing countries like Bangladesh. Building reliable models to forecast crash outcomes is crucial for implementing effective preventive measures. To aid in developing targeted safety interventions, this study presents a machine learning-based approach for classifying fatal and non-fatal road accident outcomes using data from the Dhaka metropolitan traffic crash database from 2017 to 2022. Our framework utilizes a range of machine learning classification algorithms, comprising Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting, LightGBM, and Artificial Neural Network. We prioritize model interpretability by employing the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method, which elucidates the key factors influencing accident fatality. Our results demonstrate that LightGBM outperforms other models, achieving a ROC-AUC score of 0.72. The global, local, and feature dependency analyses are conducted to acquire deeper insights into the behavior of the model. SHAP analysis reveals that casualty class, time of accident, location, vehicle type, and road type play pivotal roles in determining fatality risk. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and road safety practitioners in developing countries, enabling the implementation of evidence-based strategies to reduce traffic crash fatalities.
Denoising: A Powerful Building-Block for Imaging, Inverse Problems, and Machine Learning
Milanfar, Peyman, Delbracio, Mauricio
Denoising, the process of reducing random fluctuations in a signal to emphasize essential patterns, has been a fundamental problem of interest since the dawn of modern scientific inquiry. Recent denoising techniques, particularly in imaging, have achieved remarkable success, nearing theoretical limits by some measures. Yet, despite tens of thousands of research papers, the wide-ranging applications of denoising beyond noise removal have not been fully recognized. This is partly due to the vast and diverse literature, making a clear overview challenging. This paper aims to address this gap. We present a clarifying perspective on denoisers, their structure, and desired properties. We emphasize the increasing importance of denoising and showcase its evolution into an essential building block for complex tasks in imaging, inverse problems, and machine learning. Despite its long history, the community continues to uncover unexpected and groundbreaking uses for denoising, further solidifying its place as a cornerstone of scientific and engineering practice.
PIP-Loco: A Proprioceptive Infinite Horizon Planning Framework for Quadrupedal Robot Locomotion
Shirwatkar, Aditya, Saxena, Naman, Chandra, Kishore, Kolathaya, Shishir
A core strength of Model Predictive Control (MPC) for quadrupedal locomotion has been its ability to enforce constraints and provide interpretability of the sequence of commands over the horizon. However, despite being able to plan, MPC struggles to scale with task complexity, often failing to achieve robust behavior on rapidly changing surfaces. On the other hand, model-free Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods have outperformed MPC on multiple terrains, showing emergent motions but inherently lack any ability to handle constraints or perform planning. To address these limitations, we propose a framework that integrates proprioceptive planning with RL, allowing for agile and safe locomotion behaviors through the horizon. Inspired by MPC, we incorporate an internal model that includes a velocity estimator and a Dreamer module. During training, the framework learns an expert policy and an internal model that are co-dependent, facilitating exploration for improved locomotion behaviors. During deployment, the Dreamer module solves an infinite-horizon MPC problem, adapting actions and velocity commands to respect the constraints. We validate the robustness of our training framework through ablation studies on internal model components and demonstrate improved robustness to training noise. Finally, we evaluate our approach across multi-terrain scenarios in both simulation and hardware.
Surveying the MLLM Landscape: A Meta-Review of Current Surveys
Li, Ming, Chen, Keyu, Bi, Ziqian, Liu, Ming, Peng, Benji, Niu, Qian, Liu, Junyu, Wang, Jinlang, Zhang, Sen, Pan, Xuanhe, Xu, Jiawei, Feng, Pohsun
The rise of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) has become a transformative force in the field of artificial intelligence, enabling machines to process and generate content across multiple modalities, such as text, images, audio, and video. These models represent a significant advancement over traditional unimodal systems, opening new frontiers in diverse applications ranging from autonomous agents to medical diagnostics. By integrating multiple modalities, MLLMs achieve a more holistic understanding of information, closely mimicking human perception. As the capabilities of MLLMs expand, the need for comprehensive and accurate performance evaluation has become increasingly critical. This survey aims to provide a systematic review of benchmark tests and evaluation methods for MLLMs, covering key topics such as foundational concepts, applications, evaluation methodologies, ethical concerns, security, efficiency, and domain-specific applications. Through the classification and analysis of existing literature, we summarize the main contributions and methodologies of various surveys, conduct a detailed comparative analysis, and examine their impact within the academic community. Additionally, we identify emerging trends and underexplored areas in MLLM research, proposing potential directions for future studies. This survey is intended to offer researchers and practitioners a comprehensive understanding of the current state of MLLM evaluation, thereby facilitating further progress in this rapidly evolving field.
An Asymptotically Optimal Coordinate Descent Algorithm for Learning Bayesian Networks from Gaussian Models
Xu, Tong, Küçükyavuz, Simge, Shojaie, Ali, Taeb, Armeen
This paper studies the problem of learning Bayesian networks from continuous observational data, generated according to a linear Gaussian structural equation model. We consider an $\ell_0$-penalized maximum likelihood estimator for this problem which is known to have favorable statistical properties but is computationally challenging to solve, especially for medium-sized Bayesian networks. We propose a new coordinate descent algorithm to approximate this estimator and prove several remarkable properties of our procedure: the algorithm converges to a coordinate-wise minimum, and despite the non-convexity of the loss function, as the sample size tends to infinity, the objective value of the coordinate descent solution converges to the optimal objective value of the $\ell_0$-penalized maximum likelihood estimator. Finite-sample statistical consistency guarantees are also established. To the best of our knowledge, our proposal is the first coordinate descent procedure endowed with optimality and statistical guarantees in the context of learning Bayesian networks. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate that our coordinate descent method can obtain near-optimal solutions while being scalable.
A logical alarm for misaligned binary classifiers
Corrada-Emmanuel, Andrés, Parker, Ilya, Bharadwaj, Ramesh
If two agents disagree in their decisions, we may suspect they are not both correct. This intuition is formalized for evaluating agents that have carried out a binary classification task. Their agreements and disagreements on a joint test allow us to establish the only group evaluations logically consistent with their responses. This is done by establishing a set of axioms (algebraic relations) that must be universally obeyed by all evaluations of binary responders. A complete set of such axioms are possible for each ensemble of size N. The axioms for $N = 1, 2$ are used to construct a fully logical alarm - one that can prove that at least one ensemble member is malfunctioning using only unlabeled data. The similarities of this approach to formal software verification and its utility for recent agendas of safe guaranteed AI are discussed.
Enriching Datasets with Demographics through Large Language Models: What's in a Name?
AlNuaimi, Khaled, Marti, Gautier, Ravaut, Mathieu, AlKetbi, Abdulla, Henschel, Andreas, Jaradat, Raed
Enriching datasets with demographic information, such as gender, race, and age from names, is a critical task in fields like healthcare, public policy, and social sciences. Such demographic insights allow for more precise and effective engagement with target populations. Despite previous efforts employing hidden Markov models and recurrent neural networks to predict demographics from names, significant limitations persist: the lack of large-scale, well-curated, unbiased, publicly available datasets, and the lack of an approach robust across datasets. This scarcity has hindered the development of traditional supervised learning approaches. In this paper, we demonstrate that the zero-shot capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) can perform as well as, if not better than, bespoke models trained on specialized data. We apply these LLMs to a variety of datasets, including a real-life, unlabelled dataset of licensed financial professionals in Hong Kong, and critically assess the inherent demographic biases in these models. Our work not only advances the state-of-the-art in demographic enrichment but also opens avenues for future research in mitigating biases in LLMs.
Deep Learning with CNNs: A Compact Holistic Tutorial with Focus on Supervised Regression (Preprint)
Tejeda, Yansel Gonzalez, Mayer, Helmut A.
In this tutorial, we present a compact and holistic discussion of Deep Learning with a focus on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and supervised regression. While there are numerous books and articles on the individual topics we cover, comprehensive and detailed tutorials that address Deep Learning from a foundational yet rigorous and accessible perspective are rare. Most resources on CNNs are either too advanced, focusing on cutting-edge architectures, or too narrow, addressing only specific applications like image classification.This tutorial not only summarizes the most relevant concepts but also provides an in-depth exploration of each, offering a complete yet agile set of ideas. Moreover, we highlight the powerful synergy between learning theory, statistic, and machine learning, which together underpin the Deep Learning and CNN frameworks. We aim for this tutorial to serve as an optimal resource for students, professors, and anyone interested in understanding the foundations of Deep Learning. Upon acceptance we will provide an accompanying repository under \href{https://github.com/neoglez/deep-learning-tutorial}{https://github.com/neoglez/deep-learning-tutorial} Keywords: Tutorial, Deep Learning, Convolutional Neural Networks, Machine Learning.
Fractional Naive Bayes (FNB): non-convex optimization for a parsimonious weighted selective naive Bayes classifier
We study supervised classification for datasets with a very large number of input variables. The na\"ive Bayes classifier is attractive for its simplicity, scalability and effectiveness in many real data applications. When the strong na\"ive Bayes assumption of conditional independence of the input variables given the target variable is not valid, variable selection and model averaging are two common ways to improve the performance. In the case of the na\"ive Bayes classifier, the resulting weighting scheme on the models reduces to a weighting scheme on the variables. Here we focus on direct estimation of variable weights in such a weighted na\"ive Bayes classifier. We propose a sparse regularization of the model log-likelihood, which takes into account prior penalization costs related to each input variable. Compared to averaging based classifiers used up until now, our main goal is to obtain parsimonious robust models with less variables and equivalent performance. The direct estimation of the variable weights amounts to a non-convex optimization problem for which we propose and compare several two-stage algorithms. First, the criterion obtained by convex relaxation is minimized using several variants of standard gradient methods. Then, the initial non-convex optimization problem is solved using local optimization methods initialized with the result of the first stage. The various proposed algorithms result in optimization-based weighted na\"ive Bayes classifiers, that are evaluated on benchmark datasets and positioned w.r.t. to a reference averaging-based classifier.
Anticipating Oblivious Opponents in Stochastic Games
Kalat, Shadi Tasdighi, Sankaranarayanan, Sriram, Trivedi, Ashutosh
We present an approach for systematically anticipating the actions and policies employed by \emph{oblivious} environments in concurrent stochastic games, while maximizing a reward function. Our main contribution lies in the synthesis of a finite \emph{information state machine} whose alphabet ranges over the actions of the environment. Each state of the automaton is mapped to a belief state about the policy used by the environment. We introduce a notion of consistency that guarantees that the belief states tracked by our automaton stays within a fixed distance of the precise belief state obtained by knowledge of the full history. We provide methods for checking consistency of an automaton and a synthesis approach which upon successful termination yields such a machine. We show how the information state machine yields an MDP that serves as the starting point for computing optimal policies for maximizing a reward function defined over plays. We present an experimental evaluation over benchmark examples including human activity data for tasks such as cataract surgery and furniture assembly, wherein our approach successfully anticipates the policies and actions of the environment in order to maximize the reward.