The presence of robots amongst pedestrians affects them causing deviation to their trajectories. Existing methods suffer from the limitation of not being able to objectively measure this deviation in unseen cases. In order to solve this issue, we introduce a simulation framework that repetitively measures and benchmarks the deviation in trajectory of pedestrians due to robots driven by different navigation algorithms. We simulate the deviation behavior of the pedestrians using an enhanced Social Force Model (SFM) with a robot force component that accounts for the influence of robots on pedestrian behavior, resulting in the Social Robot Force Model (SRFM). Parameters for this model are learned using the pedestrian trajectories from the JRDB dataset [1]. Pedestrians are then simulated using the SRFM with and without the robot force component to objectively measure the deviation to their trajectory caused by the robot in 5 different scenarios. Our work in this paper is a proof of concept that shows objectively measuring the pedestrian reaction to robot is possible. We use our simulation to train two different RL policies and evaluate them against traditional navigation models.

The gaming industry has experienced substantial growth, but cheating in online games poses a significant threat to the integrity of the gaming experience. Cheating, particularly in first-person shooter (FPS) games, can lead to substantial losses for the game industry. Existing anti-cheat solutions have limitations, such as client-side hardware constraints, security risks, server-side unreliable methods, and both-sides suffer from a lack of comprehensive real-world datasets. To address these limitations, the paper proposes HAWK, a server-side FPS anti-cheat framework for the popular game CS:GO. HAWK utilizes machine learning techniques to mimic human experts' identification process, leverages novel multi-view features, and it is equipped with a well-defined workflow. The authors evaluate HAWK with the first large and real-world datasets containing multiple cheat types and cheating sophistication, and it exhibits promising efficiency and acceptable overheads, shorter ban times compared to the in-use anti-cheat, a significant reduction in manual labor, and the ability to capture cheaters who evaded official inspections.

Manifold learning has been proven to be an effective method for capturing the implicitly intrinsic structure of non-Euclidean data, in which one of the primary challenges is how to maintain the distortion-free (isometry) of the data representations. Actually, there is still no manifold learning method that provides a theoretical guarantee of isometry. Inspired by Nash's isometric theorem, we introduce a new concept called isometric immersion learning based on Riemannian geometry principles. Following this concept, an unsupervised neural network-based model that simultaneously achieves metric and manifold learning is proposed by integrating Riemannian geometry priors. What's more, we theoretically derive and algorithmically implement a maximum likelihood estimation-based training method for the new model. In the simulation experiments, we compared the new model with the state-of-the-art baselines on various 3-D geometry datasets, demonstrating that the new model exhibited significantly superior performance in multiple evaluation metrics. Moreover, we applied the Riemannian metric learned from the new model to downstream prediction tasks in real-world scenarios, and the accuracy was improved by an average of 8.8%.

The price elasticity of demand can be estimated from observational data using instrumental variables (IV). However, naive IV estimators may be inconsistent in settings with autocorrelated time series. We argue that causal time graphs can simplify IV identification and help select consistent estimators. To do so, we propose to first model the equilibrium condition by an unobserved confounder, deriving a directed acyclic graph (DAG) while maintaining the assumption of a simultaneous determination of prices and quantities. We then exploit recent advances in graphical inference to derive valid IV estimators, including estimators that achieve consistency by simultaneously estimating nuisance effects. We further argue that observing significant differences between the estimates of presumably valid estimators can help to reject false model assumptions, thereby improving our understanding of underlying economic dynamics. We apply this approach to the German electricity market, estimating the price elasticity of demand on simulated and real-world data. The findings underscore the importance of accounting for structural autocorrelation in IV-based analysis.

Robotic manipulators are widely used in various industries for complex and repetitive tasks. However, they remain vulnerable to unexpected hardware failures. In this study, we address the challenge of enabling a robotic manipulator to complete tasks despite joint malfunctions. Specifically, we develop a reinforcement learning (RL) framework to adaptively compensate for a non-functional joint during task execution. Our experimental platform is the Franka robot with 7 degrees of freedom (DOFs). We formulate the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), where the robot is trained under various joint failure conditions and tested in both seen and unseen scenarios. We consider scenarios where a joint is permanently broken and where it functions intermittently. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by comparing it with traditional inverse kinematics-based control methods. The results show that the RL algorithm enables the robot to successfully complete tasks even with joint failures, achieving a high success rate with an average rate of 93.6%. This showcases its robustness and adaptability. Our findings highlight the potential of RL to enhance the resilience and reliability of robotic systems, making them better suited for unpredictable environments. All related codes and models are published online.

Probabilistic regression models trained with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), can sometimes overestimate variance to an unacceptable degree. This is mostly problematic in the multivariate domain. While univariate models often optimize the popular Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), in the multivariate domain, no such alternative to MLE has yet been widely accepted. The Energy Score - the most investigated alternative - notoriously lacks closed-form expressions and sensitivity to the correlation between target variables. In this paper, we propose Conditional CRPS: a multivariate strictly proper scoring rule that extends CRPS. We show that closed-form expressions exist for popular distributions and illustrate their sensitivity to correlation. We then show in a variety of experiments on both synthetic and real data, that Conditional CRPS often outperforms MLE, and produces results comparable to state-of-the-art non-parametric models, such as Distributional Random Forest (DRF).

Machine learning is permeating every conceivable domain to promote data-driven decision support. The focus is often on advanced black-box models due to their assumed performance advantages, whereas interpretable models are often associated with inferior predictive qualities. More recently, however, a new generation of generalized additive models (GAMs) has been proposed that offer promising properties for capturing complex, non-linear patterns while remaining fully interpretable. To uncover the merits and limitations of these models, this study examines the predictive performance of seven different GAMs in comparison to seven commonly used machine learning models based on a collection of twenty tabular benchmark datasets. To ensure a fair and robust model comparison, an extensive hyperparameter search combined with cross-validation was performed, resulting in 68,500 model runs. In addition, this study qualitatively examines the visual output of the models to assess their level of interpretability. Based on these results, the paper dispels the misconception that only black-box models can achieve high accuracy by demonstrating that there is no strict trade-off between predictive performance and model interpretability for tabular data. Furthermore, the paper discusses the importance of GAMs as powerful interpretable models for the field of information systems and derives implications for future work from a socio-technical perspective.

Testing a hypothesized causal model against observational data is a key prerequisite for many causal inference tasks. A natural approach is to test whether the conditional independence relations (CIs) assumed in the model hold in the data. While a model can assume exponentially many CIs (with respect to the number of variables), testing all of them is both impractical and unnecessary. Causal graphs, which encode these CIs in polynomial space, give rise to local Markov properties that enable model testing with a significantly smaller subset of CIs. Model testing based on local properties requires an algorithm to list the relevant CIs. However, existing algorithms for realistic settings with hidden variables and non-parametric distributions can take exponential time to produce even a single CI constraint. In this paper, we introduce the c-component local Markov property (C-LMP) for causal graphs with hidden variables. Since C-LMP can still invoke an exponential number of CIs, we develop a polynomial delay algorithm to list these CIs in poly-time intervals. To our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that enables poly-delay testing of CIs in causal graphs with hidden variables against arbitrary data distributions. Experiments on real-world and synthetic data demonstrate the practicality of our algorithm.

Coronary Heart Disease affects millions of people worldwide and is a well-studied area of healthcare. There are many viable and accurate methods for the diagnosis and prediction of heart disease, but they have limiting points such as invasiveness, late detection, or cost. Supervised learning via machine learning algorithms presents a low-cost (computationally speaking), non-invasive solution that can be a precursor for early diagnosis. In this study, we applied several well-known methods and benchmarked their performance against each other. It was found that Random Forest with oversampling of the predictor variable produced the highest accuracy of 84%.

Penetration testing is an essential means of proactive defense in the face of escalating cybersecurity incidents. Traditional manual penetration testing methods are time-consuming, resource-intensive, and prone to human errors. Current trends in automated penetration testing are also impractical, facing significant challenges such as the curse of dimensionality, scalability issues, and lack of adaptability to network changes. To address these issues, we propose MEGA-PT, a meta-game penetration testing framework, featuring micro tactic games for node-level local interactions and a macro strategy process for network-wide attack chains. The micro- and macro-level modeling enables distributed, adaptive, collaborative, and fast penetration testing. MEGA-PT offers agile solutions for various security schemes, including optimal local penetration plans, purple teaming solutions, and risk assessment, providing fundamental principles to guide future automated penetration testing. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and agility of our model by providing improved defense strategies and adaptability to changes at both local and network levels.