Large Language Models (LLMs) based on the pre-trained fine-tuning paradigm have become pivotal in solving natural language processing tasks, consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance. Nevertheless, the theoretical understanding of how model complexity influences fine-tuning performance remains challenging and has not been well explored yet. In this paper, we focus on autoregressive LLMs and propose to employ Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model them. Based on the HMM modeling, we investigate the relationship between model complexity and the generalization capability in downstream tasks. Specifically, we consider a popular tuning paradigm for downstream tasks, head tuning, where all pre-trained parameters are frozen and only individual heads are trained atop pre-trained LLMs. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the risk initially increases and then decreases with rising model complexity, showcasing a "double descent" phenomenon. In this case, the initial "descent" is degenerate, signifying that the "sweet spot" where bias and variance are balanced occurs when the model size is zero. Obtaining the presented in this study conclusion confronts several challenges, primarily revolving around effectively modeling autoregressive LLMs and downstream tasks, as well as conducting a comprehensive risk analysis for multivariate regression. Our research is substantiated by experiments conducted on data generated from HMMs, which provided empirical support and alignment with our theoretical insights.

Active inference is a mathematical framework for understanding how agents (biological or artificial) interact with their environments, enabling continual adaptation and decision-making. It combines Bayesian inference and free energy minimization to model perception, action, and learning in uncertain and dynamic contexts. Unlike reinforcement learning, active inference integrates exploration and exploitation seamlessly by minimizing expected free energy. In this paper, we present a continual learning framework for agents operating in discrete time environments, using active inference as the foundation. We derive the mathematical formulations of variational and expected free energy and apply them to the design of a self-learning research agent. This agent updates its beliefs and adapts its actions based on new data without manual intervention. Through experiments in changing environments, we demonstrate the agent's ability to relearn and refine its models efficiently, making it suitable for complex domains like finance and healthcare. The paper concludes by discussing how the proposed framework generalizes to other systems, positioning active inference as a flexible approach for adaptive AI.

Current efforts to detect nuclear detonations and correctly categorize explosion sources with ground- and space-collected discriminants presents challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller events (lower yield explosions) often include only sparse observations among few modalities and can therefore lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also vary significantly between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for ``classic'' ECM. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed B-ECM, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment ECM with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates with B-ECM, we compare an array of B-ECM and classic ECM models with multiple performance metrics that leverage Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our B-ECM models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and a lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. We propose future avenues to improve B-ECM that expand its decision-making and predictive capability.

Addressing multiagent decision problems in AI, especially those involving collaborative or competitive agents acting concurrently in a partially observable and stochastic environment, remains a formidable challenge. While Interactive Dynamic Influence Diagrams~(I-DIDs) have offered a promising decision framework for such problems, they encounter limitations when the subject agent encounters unknown behaviors exhibited by other agents that are not explicitly modeled within the I-DID. This can lead to sub-optimal responses from the subject agent. In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven approach that utilizes an encoder-decoder architecture, particularly a variational autoencoder, to enhance I-DID solutions. By integrating a perplexity-based tree loss function into the optimization algorithm of the variational autoencoder, coupled with the advantages of Zig-Zag One-Hot encoding and decoding, we generate potential behaviors of other agents within the I-DID that are more likely to contain their true behaviors, even from limited interactions. This new approach enables the subject agent to respond more appropriately to unknown behaviors, thus improving its decision quality. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in two well-established problem domains, highlighting its potential for handling multi-agent decision problems with unknown behaviors. This work is the first time of using neural networks based approaches to deal with the I-DID challenge in agent planning and learning problems.

The rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have revolutionized smart healthcare, driving innovations in wearable technologies, continuous monitoring devices, and intelligent diagnostic systems. However, security, explainability, robustness, and performance optimization challenges remain critical barriers to widespread adoption in clinical environments. This research presents an innovative algorithmic method using the Adaptive Feature Evaluator (AFE) algorithm to improve feature selection in healthcare datasets and overcome problems. AFE integrating Genetic Algorithms (GA), Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), and Permutation Combination Techniques (PCT), the algorithm optimizes Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS), thereby enhancing predictive accuracy and interpretability. The proposed method is validated across three diverse healthcare datasets using six distinct machine learning algorithms, demonstrating its robustness and superiority over conventional feature selection techniques. The results underscore the transformative potential of AFE in smart healthcare, enabling personalized and transparent patient care. Notably, the AFE algorithm, when combined with a Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), achieved an accuracy of up to 98.5%, highlighting its capability to improve clinical decision-making processes in real-world healthcare applications.

Predicting human intent is challenging yet essential to achieving seamless Human-Robot Collaboration (HRC). Many existing approaches fail to fully exploit the inherent relationships between objects, tasks, and the human model. Current methods for predicting human intent, such as Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) and Conditional Random Fields (CRFs), often lack interpretability due to their failure to account for causal relationships between variables. To address these challenges, in this paper, we developed a novel Bayesian Intention (BI) framework to predict human intent within a multi-modality information framework in HRC scenarios. This framework captures the complexity of intent prediction by modeling the correlations between human behavior conventions and scene data. Our framework leverages these inferred intent predictions to optimize the robot's response in real-time, enabling smoother and more intuitive collaboration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through a HRC task involving a UR5 robot, highlighting BI's capability for real-time human intent prediction and collision avoidance using a unique dataset we created. Our evaluations show that the multi-modality BI model predicts human intent within 2.69ms, with a 36% increase in precision, a 60% increase in F1 Score, and an 85% increase in accuracy compared to its best baseline method. The results underscore BI's potential to advance real-time human intent prediction and collision avoidance, making a significant contribution to the field of HRC.

This paper offers a roadmap for the development of scalable aligned artificial intelligence (AI) from first principle descriptions of natural intelligence. In brief, a possible path toward scalable aligned AI rests upon enabling artificial agents to learn a good model of the world that includes a good model of our preferences. For this, the main objective is creating agents that learn to represent the world and other agents' world models; a problem that falls under structure learning (a.k.a. causal representation learning). We expose the structure learning and alignment problems with this goal in mind, as well as principles to guide us forward, synthesizing various ideas across mathematics, statistics, and cognitive science. 1) We discuss the essential role of core knowledge, information geometry and model reduction in structure learning, and suggest core structural modules to learn a wide range of naturalistic worlds. 2) We outline a way toward aligned agents through structure learning and theory of mind. As an illustrative example, we mathematically sketch Asimov's Laws of Robotics, which prescribe agents to act cautiously to minimize the ill-being of other agents. We supplement this example by proposing refined approaches to alignment. These observations may guide the development of artificial intelligence in helping to scale existing -- or design new -- aligned structure learning systems.

Fine-tuning modern computer vision models requires accurately labeled data for which the ground truth may not exist, but a set of multiple labels can be obtained from labelers of variable accuracy. We tie the notion of label quality to confidence in labeler accuracy and show that, when prior estimates of labeler accuracy are available, using a simple naive-Bayes model to estimate the true labels allows us to label more data on a fixed budget without compromising label or fine-tuning quality. We present experiments on a dataset of industrial images that demonstrates that our method, called Ground Truth Extension (GTX), enables fine-tuning ML models using fewer human labels.

Diffusion models have become increasingly popular for generative modeling due to their ability to generate high-quality samples. This has unlocked exciting new possibilities for solving inverse problems, especially in image restoration and reconstruction, by treating diffusion models as unsupervised priors. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of methods that utilize pre-trained diffusion models to solve inverse problems without requiring further training. We introduce taxonomies to categorize these methods based on both the problems they address and the techniques they employ. We analyze the connections between different approaches, offering insights into their practical implementation and highlighting important considerations. We further discuss specific challenges and potential solutions associated with using latent diffusion models for inverse problems. This work aims to be a valuable resource for those interested in learning about the intersection of diffusion models and inverse problems.

For individuals and families, access to affordable credit is essential as protection against financial volatility, financing and education, pursuing business opportunities, and building equity. From the lender's perspective, there is a delicate balance between improving access to credit and higher costs due to defaults on payments. Creating responsible credit concession models requires maintaining this balance [Kozodoi et al., 2022] while ensuring fair outcomes across different groups of individuals, improving access, and helping applicants understand factors that influence rejection so that they can take action to improve their credit potential. Credit concession models are created using a variety of data, such as employment history (for example, occupation and income), demographic data (such as age, marital status, and education), and financial data (for example, checking account balance, credit card usage, and bill payment history). Given these features, models such as logistic regression, gradient boosting, and decision trees can be trained to predict whether a new customer will default on a loan over a period of time [Louzada et al., 2016].