The marginal likelihood, or model evidence, is a key quantity in Bayesian parameter estimation and model comparison. For many probabilistic models, computation of the marginal likelihood is challenging, because it involves a sum or integral over an enormous parameter space. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful approach to compute marginal likelihoods. Various MCMC algorithms and evidence estimators have been proposed in the literature. Here we discuss the use of nonequilibrium techniques for estimating the marginal likelihood. Nonequilibrium estimators build on recent developments in statistical physics and are known as annealed importance sampling (AIS) and reverse AIS in probabilistic machine learning. We introduce estimators for the model evidence that combine forward and backward simulations and show for various challenging models that the evidence estimators outperform forward and reverse AIS.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We provide novel theoretical insights on structured prediction in the context of efficient convex surrogate loss minimization with consistency guarantees. For any task loss, we construct a convex surrogate that can be optimized via stochastic gradient descent and we prove tight bounds on the so-called "calibration function" relating the excess surrogate risk to the actual risk. In contrast to prior related work, we carefully monitor the effect of the exponential number of classes in the learning guarantees as well as on the optimization complexity. As an interesting consequence, we formalize the intuition that some task losses make learning harder than others, and that the classical 0-1 loss is ill-suited for structured prediction.

Since mutual independence is the target, pairwise similarity measurements are of no use, and thus traditional clustering algorithms are inapplicable. The distribution of the random variables in S is, in general, unknown, but a sample is available. Thus, the problem is cast in terms of time series. Two forms of sampling are considered: i.i.d. and stationary time series, with the main emphasis being on the latter, more general, case. A consistent, computationally tractable algorithm for each of the settings is proposed, and a number of fascinating open directions for further research are outlined.

We present an algorithm based on posterior sampling (aka Thompson sampling) that achieves near-optimal worst-case regret bounds when the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP) is communicating with a finite, though unknown, diameter.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

In reinforcement learning (RL), one of the key components is policy evaluation, which aims to estimate the value function (i.e., expected long-term accumulated reward) of a policy. With a good policy evaluation method, the RL algorithms will estimate the value function more accurately and find a better policy. When the state space is large or continuous Gradient-based Temporal Difference(GTD) policy evaluation algorithms with linear function approximation are widely used. Considering that the collection of the evaluation data is both time and reward consuming, a clear understanding of the finite sample performance of the policy evaluation algorithms is very important to reinforcement learning. Under the assumption that data are i.i.d.

Directed latent variable models that formulate the joint distribution as p(x, z) = p(z)p(x | z) have the advantage of fast and exact sampling. However, these models have the weakness of needing to specify p(z), often with a simple fixed prior that limits the expressiveness of the model. Undirected latent variable models discard the requirement that p(z) be specified with a prior, yet sampling from them generally requires an iterative procedure such as blocked Gibbs-sampling that may require many steps to draw samples from the joint distribution p(x, z). We propose a novel approach to learning the joint distribution between the data and a latent code which uses an adversarially learned iterative procedure to gradually refine the joint distribution, p(x, z), to better match with the data distribution on each step. GibbsNet is the best of both worlds both in theory and in practice. Achieving the speed and simplicity of a directed latent variable model, it is guaranteed (assuming the adversarial game reaches the virtual training criteria global minimum) to produce samples from p(x, z) with only a few sampling iterations. Achieving the expressiveness and flexibility of an undirected latent variable model, GibbsNet does away with the need for an explicit p(z) and has the ability to do attribute prediction, class-conditional generation, and joint image-attribute modeling in a single model which is not trained for any of these specific tasks. We show empirically that GibbsNet is able to learn a more complex p(z) and show that this leads to improved inpainting and iterative refinement of p(x, z) for dozens of steps and stable generation without collapse for thousands of steps, despite being trained on only a few steps.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/