Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate inference algorithm on a specific data set. This paper introduces the auxiliary inference divergence estimator (AIDE), an algorithm for measuring the accuracy of approximate inference algorithms. AIDE is based on the observation that inference algorithms can be treated as probabilistic models and the random variables used within the inference algorithm can be viewed as auxiliary variables. This view leads to a new estimator for the symmetric KL divergence between the approximating distributions of two inference algorithms. The paper illustrates application of AIDE to algorithms for inference in regression, hidden Markov, and Dirichlet process mixture models. The experiments show that AIDE captures the qualitative behavior of a broad class of inference algorithms and can detect failure modes of inference algorithms that are missed by standard heuristics.

We propose a scalable algorithm for model selection in sigmoid belief networks (SBNs), based on the factorized asymptotic Bayesian (FAB) framework. We derive the corresponding generalized factorized information criterion (gFIC) for the SBN, which is proven to be statistically consistent with the marginal log-likelihood. To capture the dependencies within hidden variables in SBNs, a recognition network is employed to model the variational distribution. The resulting algorithm, which we call FABIA, can simultaneously execute both model selection and inference by maximizing the lower bound of gFIC. On both synthetic and real data, our experiments suggest that FABIA, when compared to state-of-the-art algorithms for learning SBNs, (i) produces a more concise model, thus enabling faster testing; (ii) improves predictive performance; (iii) accelerates convergence; and (iv) prevents overfitting.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Point processes are powerful tools to model user activities and have a plethora of applications in social sciences. Predicting user activities based on point processes is a central problem. However, existing works are mostly problem specific, use heuristics, or simplify the stochastic nature of point processes. In this paper, we propose a framework that provides an efficient estimator of the probability mass function of point processes. In particular, we design a key reformulation of the prediction problem, and further derive a differential-difference equation to compute a conditional probability mass function. Our framework is applicable to general point processes and prediction tasks, and achieves superb predictive and efficiency performance in diverse real-world applications compared to the state of the art.

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs, which learn a distribution over weights, are currently the state-of-the-art for estimating predictive uncertainty; however these require significant modifications to the training procedure and are computationally expensive compared to standard (non-Bayesian) NNs. We propose an alternative to Bayesian NNs that is simple to implement, readily parallelizable, requires very little hyperparameter tuning, and yields high quality predictive uncertainty estimates. Through a series of experiments on classification and regression benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates which are as good or better than approximate Bayesian NNs. To assess robustness to dataset shift, we evaluate the predictive uncertainty on test examples from known and unknown distributions, and show that our method is able to express higher uncertainty on out-of-distribution examples. We demonstrate the scalability of our method by evaluating predictive uncertainty estimates on ImageNet.

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) learn representations of data by jointly training a probabilistic encoder and decoder network.

Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (Neural SDEs) have emerged as powerful mesh-free generative models for continuous stochastic processes, with critical applications in fields such as finance, physics, and biology. Previous state-of-the-art methods have relied on adversarial training, such as GANs, or on minimizing distance measures between processes using signature kernels. However, GANs suffer from issues like instability, mode collapse, and the need for specialized training techniques, while signature kernel-based methods require solving linear PDEs and backpropagating gradients through the solver, whose computational complexity scales quadratically with the discretization steps. In this paper, we identify a novel class of strictly proper scoring rules for comparing continuous Markov processes. This theoretical finding naturally leads to a novel approach called Finite Dimensional Matching (FDM) for training Neural SDEs. Our method leverages the Markov property of SDEs to provide a computationally efficient training objective. This scoring rule allows us to bypass the computational overhead associated with signature kernels and reduces the training complexity from $O(D^2)$ to $O(D)$ per epoch, where $D$ represents the number of discretization steps of the process. We demonstrate that FDM achieves superior performance, consistently outperforming existing methods in terms of both computational efficiency and generative quality.

The last decade in deep learning has brought on increasingly capable systems that are deployed on a wide variety of applications. In natural language processing, the field has been transformed by a number of breakthroughs including large language models, which are used in increasingly many user-facing applications. In order to reap the benefits of this technology and reduce potential harms, it is important to quantify the reliability of model predictions and the uncertainties that shroud their development. This thesis studies how uncertainty in natural language processing can be characterized from a linguistic, statistical and neural perspective, and how it can be reduced and quantified through the design of the experimental pipeline. We further explore uncertainty quantification in modeling by theoretically and empirically investigating the effect of inductive model biases in text classification tasks. The corresponding experiments include data for three different languages (Danish, English and Finnish) and tasks as well as a large set of different uncertainty quantification approaches. Additionally, we propose a method for calibrated sampling in natural language generation based on non-exchangeable conformal prediction, which provides tighter token sets with better coverage of the actual continuation. Lastly, we develop an approach to quantify confidence in large black-box language models using auxiliary predictors, where the confidence is predicted from the input to and generated output text of the target model alone.

Dynamic grasping of moving objects in complex, continuous motion scenarios remains challenging. Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been applied in various robotic manipulation tasks, benefiting from its closed-loop property. However, existing RL-based methods do not fully explore the potential for enhancing visual representations. In this letter, we propose a novel framework called Grasps As Points for RL (GAP-RL) to effectively and reliably grasp moving objects. By implementing a fast region-based grasp detector, we build a Grasp Encoder by transforming 6D grasp poses into Gaussian points and extracting grasp features as a higher-level abstraction than the original object point features. Additionally, we develop a Graspable Region Explorer for real-world deployment, which searches for consistent graspable regions, enabling smoother grasp generation and stable policy execution. To assess the performance fairly, we construct a simulated dynamic grasping benchmark involving objects with various complex motions. Experiment results demonstrate that our method effectively generalizes to novel objects and unseen dynamic motions compared to other baselines. Real-world experiments further validate the framework's sim-to-real transferability.

Training visual reinforcement learning agents in a high-dimensional open world presents significant challenges. While various model-based methods have improved sample efficiency by learning interactive world models, these agents tend to be "short-sighted", as they are typically trained on short snippets of imagined experiences. We argue that the primary obstacle in open-world decision-making is improving the efficiency of off-policy exploration across an extensive state space. In this paper, we present LS-Imagine, which extends the imagination horizon within a limited number of state transition steps, enabling the agent to explore behaviors that potentially lead to promising long-term feedback. The foundation of our approach is to build a long short-term world model. To achieve this, we simulate goal-conditioned jumpy state transitions and compute corresponding affordance maps by zooming in on specific areas within single images. This facilitates the integration of direct long-term values into behavior learning. Our method demonstrates significant improvements over state-of-the-art techniques in MineDojo.